On Target 🎯 Using Week 15 results, which receivers could go off in Week 16?
There were plenty of wide receiver fantasy misses in Week 15. Justin Jefferson was merely the WR27; it's been three months since he had a splash game. Ja'Marr Chase got hurt, stumbling to a WR36 finish. None of the signature wideouts produced in the Seattle-Philadelphia game (just focusing on the top-four guys; Jaxon Smith-Njigba did have the game-winning score in the final minute, saving his day).
Calvin Ridley, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham Jr. all finished outside the top 50 at the position. Yikes.
But every week has some receiver stars nonetheless, and I thought we might want to look at last week's hits and see if their story could apply to someone else for Week 16. Stay with me, let's see what we find. We'll throw in a couple of tight end opinions at no extra charge.
Chris Godwin was WR13; volume overcomes touchdown allergy
Week 16 application: Garrett Wilson vs. Washington
It's been a frustrating season for Wilson managers, who saw their dreams evaporate when Aaron Rodgers was hurt on the fourth snap of the year. But Wilson continues to absorb targets (he has 35 looks in the last four weeks, eighth in the league), and the Washington secondary is happy to escort you where you need to go. Did you see the non-coverage of Cooper Kupp on his long score last week? Maybe Wilson can finally post a breakout game.
Terry McLaurin was WR3; his backup QB bailed him out
Week 16 application: Drake London vs. Indianapolis
We're not asking too much from Taylor Heinicke this week; just be a little better than Desmond Ridder. It's a reasonable bar to clear. Heinicke and London have only played one full game together this year, but it was a respectable 5-55-0 log on seven targets. That's a good over-under for Week 16, and I think London can beat the projection. He's back in play as a reasonable WR3.
Davante Adams was WR11, his first big game in a month; thanks, Chargers
Week 16 application: Stefon Diggs at Los Angeles
The Diggs slump has mostly been about timing, as he's faced four below-average matchups (and absorbed his bye) over the last six weeks. But Diggs has faced five green matchups this year (top 10 in fantasy points allowed) and he's hit in all of them; his worst game of the five was an acceptable 9-70-0 line against Tampa. Buffalo has the floor on Saturday night in prime time, and it's going to be glorious.
Amari Cooper was WR10; Joe Flacco is good enough
Week 16 application: Justin Jefferson vs. Detroit (Nick Mullens is good enough)
Jefferson's too good to bench, of course, so this recommendation is mostly for your peace of mind (the same goes for Diggs, above). The last time Jefferson drew the Lions, around this time last year, he exploded for 11 catches and 223 yards. Four of his six Detroit games have gone for 124 yards or more, and the Lions' secondary is still a mess. And take heart in backup QB Nick Mullens, who played well in the loss at Cincinnati. He's had some time to get reps in with Jefferson; we should see some payoff this week.
Jaylen Waddle was WR2; big game with the No. 1 missing (Tyreek Hill)
Week 16 application: Tee Higgins at Pittsburgh (role expands with Ja'Marr Chase missing)
Higgins was a surprise hit in Week 15 (WR4), as the Bengals offense continues to stay afloat even with Jake Browning starting. It's just the third plus game for Higgins this year, in what's been an injury-washout season; lousy timing for his contract year. But now Chase is hurt and the Steelers' secondary is gettable; Michael Pittman Jr. was torching these guys before his own injury last week. I'm ready to start Higgins proactively.
Sam LaPorta was TE1; four rookie tight ends charted in the top eight
Week 16 application: Tucker Kraft at Carolina
We're cheating a little bit because Kraft was one of those four rookies who crashed the party last week. Maybe he was the best rookie tight end in Green Bay all along, not Luke Musgrave. The Panthers' pass defense has been stingy on volume but is merely average on efficiency; most teams can throw on Carolina, they just choose not to. With cluster injuries hitting the Green Bay receiver room, Kraft can build on his success the last two weeks (8-121-1). He's rostered in a modest 10% of Yahoo leagues.
Trey McBride had a 10-102 party against the mighty Niners; there are holes in the zone
Week 16 application: TE Isaiah Likely at San Francisco
You probably don't need major encouragement to play Likely, who's been the TE3 and TE4 the last two weeks, the most consistent part of Baltimore's pass-catching collective. But let's make sure you don't let the name brand of San Francisco push you off the scent. The Niners will probably focus on making sure Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. don't crush them with big plays, and that figures to set up well for Likely finding space underneath, just like McBride did.
