On Target 🎯 Is Cooper Kupp still an auto-start in fantasy football leagues?
It's getting late in the NFL season. It's getting late in the fantasy football season. Some fantasy managers are already facing elimination games. Soon, we'll all be playing for our lives, week to week.
The goal in fantasy (and in life) is to make good decisions. On so many things in life, we're guessing — but let's try to make an educated guess. Even if the choices feel like a coin flip, we'd like to put thought into the choice.
I run a start-sit discussion at @YahooFantasy every Sunday, an hour before kickoff (and we usually start much earlier than that). I was heartened to see so many Cooper Kupp questions last week because that reinforced that managers are being thoughtful with their lineup choices, and they've also been proactive in building receiver depth. Everyone has their own set of rules for how decisions are made, but I get a little frustrated when smart people want to throw away key information that should be part of the process.
Often you'll hear the phrase "always start your stars" and I've always found that to be a little trite and convenient. When your star players are healthy and their teammates are healthy, sure, press play, no matter the opponent. That's easy. Nobody needs help doing that.
But what happens when the star player is hurt? What if the star player's quarterback is hurt? What if the weather is bad? What if you're a heavy favorite or underdog in your matchup?
Is Ja'Marr Chase still the same without Joe Burrow? Is Tony Pollard still an auto-play? Is Cooper Kupp still a star in his current health state?
This is where I mention a term I coined long ago: Friendliest Loss. The definition of Friendliest Loss is making a decision based on what losing scenario you think will be the most acceptable, the loss you expect to sting the least. The problem with Friendliest Loss is you're trying to find a loss you can live with, and potentially throwing out reasonable angles that should be part of your decision-making process.
You'll see a lot of Friendliest Loss at the blackjack table, players afraid to hit 14 against a dealer 10 because the player doesn't want to lose immediately. Meanwhile, they're ignoring all math that suggests you should take a card in that instance (to be fair, you're an underdog in the hand no matter what, but you might as well try to maximize your winning chances).
Sometimes fantasy managers will swear they can't bench an early-round pick. Maybe you felt you couldn't bench Cooper Kupp last week because he was your first or second pick. But this misses the obvious key point: Kupp would never be taken that early if we redrafted today. His current value can't be as high as it was in the middle of the summer. We have to consider the current information.
Here are some of the players Yahoo managers were considering versus Kupp last week, at least in the questions I fielded: Mike Evans (smashed), Calvin Ridley (smashed), Michael Pittman (very good), Tank Dell (very good), Adam Thielen (invisible), Keaton Mitchell (role expanded, but still meat on the bone).
Thielen was the only player who didn't beat Kupp on the scoresheet — to be fair, neither of them did much.
Is Cooper Kupp still an automatic start, or is it time to accept the truth?
The point isn't that Kupp flopped here while several other players hit — it's one week, it's a small sample. The point is that every manager in these instances at least had a case to consider benching Kupp. Although Kupp was drafted before every other player listed, proactive managers understood his current value was much different.
Since Cooper Kupp came back in Week 5, and there's a lot at play here (Matthew Stafford missed time, the backfield has shifting pieces), let's consider the Rams receiving data (thanks to Fantasy Points for their excellent data suite):
Target Share (targets in parentheses): Puka Nacua 27.1 (58), Cooper Kupp 22.4 (48), Tutu Atwell 11.7 (25), Tyler Higbee 11.2 (24).
Route Percentage: Nacua 86.8, Kupp 77.9, Higbee 73.2, Atwell 72.8.
End-zone Targets: Nacua 6, Kupp 2, Atwell 1, Higbee 1.
All the wideouts have catch rates under 60%, which tells you the QB play hasn't been great. Nacua and Kupp are about even in targets per route run. And obviously, the shape of the offense changed last week when Kyren Williams came back. Williams might be the foundation of the offense the rest of the season, if he can stay healthy.
So where are we at with Kupp? There's good news and bad news.
On the plus side, at least Stafford is back and the Rams are still in the playoff race. There's no reason to start shutting guys down. And Kupp was on the field for 88% of the Week 12 snaps, a key jump after playing just a quarter of them the previous week. If everyone stays hale for the fantasy playoffs, the Commanders and Giants are daisy matchups in Weeks 15 and 17, respectfully.
On the downside, Kupp isn't getting peppered with targets like he was in the past. Back in 2021, when Kupp was probably the best player in the NFL, he drew double-digit targets in 14 of his first 15 games. He crossed that line five times in nine starts last year. This season, Kupp has just two double-digit target games and averages a modest six targets over his last five games.
We mentioned the good matchups coming, but there are bad ones, too. Cleveland looms this week, Baltimore rests up for next week; no bueno. The Saints call in Week 16, and they've been hard for receivers to score against.
Bottom line, the Rams offense used to be The Cooper Kupp Show. That's not what they're playing in 2023. Every NFL team is always a work in progress; we chase the butterfly with a net and swipe, but often we miss — the butterfly keeps darting, bobbing, weaving. Maybe the Rams will figure out how to maximize Kupp again. Perhaps he'll be closer to 100% down the stretch. Maybe Stafford's play will improve.
But until I see some evidence of those things, I'll keep Kupp in the "maybe" file. You have to consider him against other options. And the prudent move might be to bench him, if you've drafted well or skillfully filled the receiver room beside him.
I expect we'll continue this conversation on Sunday morning, and hopefully, we'll make good decisions then, too.
