On Target 🎯 How Alvin Kamara's transformation is bringing fantasy results
I've been around the fantasy game for a while, and the target stat has come a long way, baby.
Targets didn't become a tracked stat until 1992. Pro Football Reference wasn't launched until 2003. My early days of fantasy football in the '90s involved scoring leagues by hand, sitting down in the morning with a pencil, a caffeinated beverage and the newspaper.
The pencil and newspaper are gone from my life now; the caffeine remains.
Receiving stats and analysis have blossomed in the modern era. Heck, this article a decade ago would have been merely about targets, full stop. Today, we have so many additional data points — first-read targets, average depth of target, catchable targets, routes run, red-zone data; the cup feels bottomless.
My goal every Tuesday this season is to analyze wide receiver data and trends, tracking where the puck has been and trying to figure out where the puck is headed. Targets will still factor in plenty, of course.
But remember: we have several different buckets to examine now.
We'll occasionally dot in running back discussions in this space, especially when it's tied to someone who makes his living as a pass-catching specialist. With that in mind, meet me in New Orleans. A bottomless cup of targets is propping up the fantasy value of Alvin Kamara.
Kamara's transformation is fascinating. Early in his career, he was a splash play waiting to happen, but someone the Saints used judiciously. You didn't always see a lot of Kamara touches, but you were always left wanting more.
In 2023, it's the opposite. Kamara is getting all the touches he can handle, but not much is happening:
First Six Seasons: 17.7 touches per game, 4.5 yards per carry, 8.7 yards per catch, 6.8 yards per target
2023: 25 touches per game, 3.8 yards per carry, 3.7 yards per catch, 3.4 yards per target
To be fair, this efficiency drop is the way things have trended since the beginning of 2021. Maybe that's the best place to draw the Kamara line.
Kamara 2017-2020: 5.0 per carry, 8.7 per catch, 6.9 per target
Kamara 2021-2023: 3.9 per carry, 8.0 per catch, 6.0 per target
There are several plausible theories on why Kamara's efficiency is missing. Obviously, Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season, and Sean Payton left a year later. Context is always gigantically important in the games we play.
But I'm also concerned that Derek Carr isn't the right guy here. It's seldom talked about, but Carr had worse efficiency stats last year than Andy Dalton, the New Orleans stand-in quarterback. Perhaps Carr wasn't playing at full health, but he hasn't eased concerns this year, either. Carr currently ranks above league average in completion percentage and sack avoidance, but he's below code in every other major quarterback metric.
It's not all gloom for Kamara managers — many of us live in a PPR or half-PPR world, and the Saints offense is designed to use Kamara heavily. Kamara came back three weeks ago, and since then he ranks second in the league with 75 touches (Josh Jacobs is two touches ahead of him). Despite middling efficiency, Kamara is 13th in basic scoring for that cumulative period, and seventh in full-PPR scoring. He's done all of this without a touchdown, too.
Back to the lede: the answer is in the targets. Kamara has 25 over the last three weeks, tops among running backs, and 23 catches (also first). Of course, he's only 10th in running back receiving yards for this period — a lot of these plays are checkdowns that don't go anywhere. But PPR scoring doesn't ask questions, it just drops a point into your basket.
Let's have a brief word about the other backs with 10 or more targets over this period:
Josh Jacobs. 21 targets (15-117-0): The Raiders offense might not be good, but the usage is delightfully narrow.
D'Andre Swift, 20 targets (18-101-1): Apparently that Kenneth Gainwell stuff in Week 1 was one big Rope-A-Dope. Just what the Eagles needed, another electric skill player.
Bijan Robinson, 15 targets (12-87-1): I still have little confidence in Arthur Smith, who's cutting off his nose to spite his face.
Tony Pollard, 15 targets (13-128-0): About half of this yardage came on one glorious catch-and-run Monday. You still feel like the Cowboys are leaving meat on the Pollard bone.
Christian McCaffrey, 14 targets (12-107-2): Fantasy football's cheat code, but some time off appears imminent.
Breece Hall, 12 targets (11-84-0): The Jets survived their schedule gauntlet at 3-3, and they're letting the offense center around the two elite talents, Hall and Garrett Wilson. There's hope in Gotham City.
Travis Etienne Jr., 11 targets (10-93-0): Etienne's receiving efficiency is static from last year, and his yards per catch have dropped over a yard. Then again, he leads the NFL in carries and he's getting red-zone looks, so nothing to worry about.
Alexander Mattison, 11 targets (7-51-1): He's been a JAG for most of the year. And with Justin Jefferson out indefinitely, this offense could be in trouble.
Rhamondre Stevenson, 11 targets (7-34-0): Like most things in New England these days, passes to Stevenson do not go anywhere.
Zack Moss, 10 targets (8-68-0): Jonathan Taylor is going to lead this backfield soon, but Moss figures to keep about a third of the work. He's quasi-playable as a flex, and at least has that contingency upside.
Raheem Mostert, 10 targets (8-66-1): I expect every Mike McDaniel play call to work.
Isiah Pacheco, 10 targets (10-88-0): You can't beat the catch rate. With the receivers still leaving us cold (though I will believe in Rashee Rice forever), maybe Pacheco is one of the sneaky right answers in this passing game.
Tyjae Spears, 10 targets (8-101-0): Are the Titans one more loss away from dealing Derrick Henry? Spears is screaming for additional playing time, even if Henry stays.
Slow-developing polaroids at receiver
I can't give you an On Target report without some wide receiver talk. Let's get a word about three of the more interesting stash plays at receiver, Marvin Mims Jr., Rashee Rice and Jameson Williams.
It's shocking that Mims can't get on the field more often. He's your go-to splash play. The rookie is averaging 24.6 yards per catch and also has a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown. But the Broncos refuse to let Mims out of the box. His snap share per week makes me want to cry: 27%, 24%, 24%, 35%, 32%, 23%. His season low came in Week 6, for crying out loud.
Of course, the NFL trade deadline is at the end of the month, and the 1-5 Broncos aren't going anywhere this year. It makes sense to shop Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, and if either is dealt, Mims surely has to assume a bigger role. It's frustrating to wait this long, but I'm holding Mims as long as I can. I know it's not easy during heavy bye weeks (six teams rest this week) and in the midst of so many league-wide injuries, but hold if you can.
Williams had one of the coolest highlights of Week 6, the acrobatic 53-yard touchdown at Tampa Bay. It's just fun to see him back on the field, period. But the Lions aren't asking much of Williams yet — he only played a quarter of the snaps last week and is sitting on a modest six targets through two games.
Even with some players hurt, the Lions offense has a lot of mouths to feed. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target hog and a budding star, Josh Reynolds has a role carved out and Sam LaPorta is a rare rookie tight end ready to go. Even when the Williams role expands, it might be as a space-clearer and an occasional shot-play guy. It's plausible Williams might eventually be more valuable to the Lions in the second half of the year than he is to fantasy managers.
If you can roster just one of these three players, I'd look to Rice first. It's so close to popping here. Rice has been around 50% snaps in three of his past four games, he had four catches and a score against Minnesota in Week 5 and he was useful (4-72-0) in last week's win over Denver.
The assumption of rational coaching can be funny, but Andy Reid deserves the benefit of the doubt. It's clear that Rice has Patrick Mahomes' trust, too. And consider what happens when the Chiefs target one of their receivers this year:
Rashee Rice, 110 quarterback rating
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 91.0 rating
Justin Watson, 78.7 rating
Kadarius Toney, 70.7 rating
Justyn Ross, 67.4 rating
Skyy Moore, 50.8 rating
Richie James, 42.4 rating
Throw the ball to Rashee Rice. Seems like a good idea.
Data from Pro Football Reference and Fantasy Pros was used in this article.
