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Oller: Ohio State coach Jake Diebler is good story, but hard to picture a fairytale ending

No self-respecting sports writer roots for the team. We root for the story.

And Jake Diebler is a good story, one that tugs at you. At me. At anyone who longs for happy endings. The story also contains bits of the bittersweet, of benefiting at the expense of a friend who was fired. Tough stuff. Real stuff.

Yet as feel-good as the story may be, and it is still being written, the probable conclusion is that it ends in the ill-fated unfairness of life. That is to say it is doubtful Diebler gets hired full-time.

But let’s begin with the Disney angle, which is the stuff of destiny. Diebler is a coach’s son, seemingly purposed to rise through the ranks and land a Division 1 head coaching job. He is a loyal lieutenant, having accepted the assignment to take over the Ohio State program on an interim basis after his friend, Chris Holtmann, was fired Feb. 14. He did it mostly for the players. Then for the program. And also a little for himself. Good for him.

Mar 3, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Head Coach Jake Diebler yells to the team during their NCAA Division I Mens basketball game at Value City Arena.
Mar 3, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Head Coach Jake Diebler yells to the team during their NCAA Division I Mens basketball game at Value City Arena.

The Buckeyes needed to make a change. After seven seasons, the last two in particular, Holtmann’s voice had begun to ring hollow. Players are not clueless. They read social media, know when their coach is on the hot seat. And if Holtmann was not going to return next season, why listen to him? Any tuning out that occurred was not necessarily intentional. It just happens, like a ticking clock that once demanded your attention as you lay in bed but no longer keeps you from falling asleep. The sound eventually just goes away.

Holtmann also was pressing, which caused his players to tighten. You saw it on the floor, felt it late in games, as if players were thinking, “We’re ahead, but for how long?”

One of many cases in point: On Jan. 15 the Buckeyes fell behind early at Michigan before going on a 16-0 run in the second half to take the lead against an opponent that had lost five games in a row. But OSU faltered down the stretch, losing by nine. That game in Ann Arbor felt like a must-win for Holtmann’s job security.

Compare that to Sunday afternoon against the Wolverines in Value City Arena, when the Buckeyes turned a seven-point lead with 10:01 remaining into an 84-61 runaway that saw them outscore Michigan 20-2 over the last seven minutes.

Mar 3, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Head Coach Jake Diebler watches the team during their NCAA Division I Mens basketball game at Value City Arena.
Mar 3, 2024; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Head Coach Jake Diebler watches the team during their NCAA Division I Mens basketball game at Value City Arena.

“I feel like guys may be playing a little more free,” said senior Zed Key.

“But Diebler’s still a great coach,” Key continued, not wanting to make it sound like the former assistant was being easier on players. “Guys are going to listen to him and he’s going to have us playing extremely hard the whole game.”

The Buckeyes are 4-1 since Diebler stepped in for Holtmann – Diebler insisted it be stated that way, that the team is 4-1, not just the interim coach – and each win has come with a cherry on top. Purdue was ranked No. 2; the win at Michigan State snapped a 17-game road losing streak, and was the first time OSU had won at the Breslin Center since 2012; Nebraska was one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten; and Michigan is the former employer of Connor Stalions. Nuff said.

Diebler has done a masterful job of helping players tune out the noise that comes whenever a coach gets fired. He has the Buckeyes playing quick but never in a hurry, to steal a line from John Wooden; OSU finished with a 22-2 advantage in fast-break points against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes’ defensive efficiency also has improved considerably over the past two weeks.

“We’re playing to win, not that we weren’t before, but I just think our mentality and our focus is to stay aggressive,” Diebler said. “There’s a confidence guys have right now, and that’s where you’re seeing this aggressive but also loose (mentality).”

That’s the saccharine part of the story, but there also is a less sanguine subplot in play, something along the lines of “The Walking Dead.” Despite the 4-1 record and turnaround in team “vibe,” it is difficult to picture Diebler becoming Holtmann’s permanent replacement. Not that I wouldn’t be for it. Great guy. Great story. But the 37-year-old has so many hurdles to overcome to win the job, beginning with a statement delivered by incoming OSU athletic director Ross Bjork that he is looking for someone with head coaching experience. Presumably that means experience beyond a handful of games, which would put Diebler on the outside looking in.

If I had to throw darts in an attempt to land on who will be coaching the Buckeyes next season, I’d aim at Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May and Xavier coach Sean Miller.

May, 47, is 123-67 (.647) in six seasons with the Owls and led them to the Final Four last year before they lost to San Diego State by one point in the semifinals. May has ties to the Big Ten, having served as both a basketball manager and administrator at Indiana, and has not had a losing season. His record improved each of his first five seasons.

Miller, 55, is more polarizing. As head coach at Arizona (2009-2021), he escaped NCAA sanctions, even as two of his assistants were hit with heavy penalties for academic fraud, bribery and impermissible benefits. Is he too tainted for Ohio State to touch? It’s hard to imagine that outgoing AD Gene Smith would seriously consider hiring Miller, but he’s not making the call. Bjork is. Miller can coach, compiling a 464-180 record (.720) at Arizona and Xavier, where he is in second stint.

Where does that leave Diebler? It’s not uncommon for schools to elevate assistants onto the throne – see Ryan Day; and it helps there is no equivalent of an Urban Meyer licking his chops to coach men’s basketball – but Diebler’s sample size is still too small to take a chance on him. Now, if the Buckeyes make the NCAA Tournament? If they somehow reach the Sweet 16? Aw, there I go again, rooting for the best story. Too bad reality usually gets in the way.

roller@dispatch.com

@rollerCD

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State men's basketball coach Jake Diebler improves to 4-1