Michigan has a way of making current Ohio State football coaches miserable. What about OSU men’s basketball coaches? Stay tuned.

When the Buckeyes tip off against the Wolverines at noon Monday in Ann Arbor, more than just border state bragging rights are on the line. During a season in which every move OSU coach Chris Holtmann makes is scrutinized – the result of losing 14 of 15 games in a row the previous year, while failing to reach the NCAA Tournament – each game becomes a test of Holtmann’s ability to turn things around.

After going 11-2 through December, the Buckeyes opened 2024 by beating Rutgers, but have lost their last two to unranked Indiana on the road and to Wisconsin at home to fall to 12-4 and 2-3 in the Big Ten. Both losses were winnable, but Ohio State gave up second-half leads. At the risk of extending too much latitude, both losses also were predictable, coming as they did at an always hostile Assembly Hall and to the 15th-ranked Badgers.

Michigan is a different story. There will be no extension of grace if things go south. The Wolverines are 6-10 overall and tied for last in the conference at 1-4. They have lost five in a row and are a bit of a mess. “Must-win” is an overused descriptor, but in this case it fits. Ohio State has lost 11 consecutive road games, all in the Big Ten, and must exit Crisler Arena with the dub. Or else.

Or else what? Is that a threat? No. Holtmann’s job is safe. It likely would require another free fall like last season to make OSU athletic director Gene Smith consider pulling the plug, and even then why do it on his way out the retirement door? Let the next AD drop the hammer. There also is the financial matter of the school owing Holtmann $20 million if it replaces him before next season.

Holt isn’t going anywhere, but a growing portion of the fan base still has him in its crosshairs and will be even less forgiving with each loss. Those already down on Holtmann need no further ammunition. They wonder, among other beefs, why his blue-chip recruiting has not led to more wins, but even those forgiving souls in wait-and-see mode will have a hard time seeing the glass half full if the Buckeyes fall to Michigan.

For starters, the Wolverines remain the closest thing Ohio State has to a basketball rival. Indiana clearly held that title during the Bob Knight reign of terror, but Michigan has regained it by default. Even more alarming, losing a third consecutive Big Ten game would usher in a “here we go again” feeling among fans.

Ohio State has lost at least three straight games in four of the past five seasons, including last year when the Buckeyes suffered losing streaks of five and nine, separated only by a win against Iowa.

If OSU can’t take care of business against Michigan, what confidence is there it can win any of its next four games – against a Penn State team it already lost to Dec. 9; at 13-4 Nebraska; at 12-4 Northwestern and home against No. 10 Illinois?

If the Buckeyes lose to Michigan and drop to 12-5 and 2-4 in the conference they will need to finish the regular season 8-6 to reach 20 wins. The last time OSU went two consecutive seasons without winning 20 games was 2002-03 and 2003-04.

Losing to Michigan would not ruin the season, but Holtmann and his staff would need to hope the Big Ten continues to be unpredictable. Or to put it another way, to continue being predictably bad. Sift the wreckage and … No. 1 Purdue lost to Nebraska, which lost to Iowa, which lost to Michigan, which lost to Maryland, which lost to Minnesota, which lost to Indiana, which lost to Rutgers, which lost to Ohio State, which … you get the picture.

Given the nightly uncertainty, Ohio State still can move up the standings, but a couple of things need to change, beginning with improved outside shooting by guards Bruce Thornton and Roddy Gayle Jr., who over the past five games have combined to go 10 of 49 (.204) from 3-point range. The Buckeyes are fortunate that transfer forward Jamison Battle shot 25 of 43 (.581) over the same stretch.

Thornton is OSU’s glue guy, but Gayle is the player talented enough to take over a game, as his 32 points against West Virginia on Dec. 30 showed. It has not shown lately. The sophomore is forcing his offense, perhaps trying to live up to the expectation of being the “man.” Beyond his spotty shooting, he has had at least three turnovers in seven consecutive games.

If those numbers don’t change, escaping Ann Arbor with a win is no certainty, especially with a likely motivational in-game appearance by Jim Harbaugh and players from UM’s national championship football team.

Ryan Day knows the heat of losing to Michigan, but at least has the offseason to recover. Holtmann has half a season remaining. It behooves him to return to Columbus with a victory over The Victors.

roller@dispatch.com

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: ohio state men's basketball faces must-win game against Michigan