OXFORD ― Eighty-nine years after the award's inception, Ole Miss football is still waiting on its first Heisman Trophy winner.

It has been 21 years since the Rebels' last finalist — Matt Corral narrowly missed the cut in 2021 — and the Earth has completed 64 trips around the sun since their last Heisman finalist not named Manning.

Quarterback Jaxson Dart, the bookmakers say, has a shot at resetting those clocks. As of Monday afternoon, FanDuel considered him the fifth-most likely player to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy, tied with two other players behind Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard.

According to FanDuel, Dart has an implied probability of 6.25% of taking home the award as spring practice approaches.

It's a logical preseason position for Dart, who will lead the Ole Miss offense for a third season. The Rebels are likely to be in the top 10 when the preseason rankings come out in August, and quarterbacks have claimed the Heisman in 10 of the past 12 seasons.

And he has never been shy about his goals. Even in the midst of a competition against Spencer Sanders last offseason, he made them clear.

"My focus this year is to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country," Dart said then.

Most outsiders expect that from Dart in 2024. So what bar does he have to clear to earn serious Heisman consideration?

Handicapping Jaxson Dart's Heisman Trophy odds for Ole Miss football

Each of the 10 most recent quarterbacks to win the Heisman had one thing in common: They all led their team to at least nine wins in the regular season.

It would take something truly spectacular for Dart to take home the trophy if the Rebels fall short of that number. Barring a total collapse by a defense most expect to improve in 2024, if Dart plays well enough to be in consideration, the winning should take care of itself.

From there, the statistical baseline is a high one. Using a per-game approach to account for some quarterbacks playing more games than others, Heisman-winning QBs averaged 367.3 combined passing and rushing yards per game in their Heisman seasons. They also posted on average 3.7 touchdowns.

Can Dart get there?

It would require a big jump. He averaged 288.7 combined rushing and passing yards in 13 games in 2023, along with 2.4 total touchdowns per game.

But continuity in a complex Lane Kiffin offense should help.

On paper, the Rebels should have a better supporting cast than in either of Dart's previous two seasons. The group of receivers looks like it should be one of the best in the country. Its offensive line — a major problem last season, especially against quality opposition — has added several talented transfers, too.

How much does winning matter?

A major subject of Jayden Daniels' Heisman-winning candidacy last season was LSU's record. The Tigers made it to nine regular-season wins, but they didn't appear in the SEC title game, and most would argue that they didn't live up to preseason expectations.

In our 10-quarterback sample, leading a great team — rather than merely a very good one — can lower the statistical bar required to win the award, but not by much.

Six of the 10 most recent QBs to win a Heisman also led their team to conference titles. They averaged 353.8 combined rushing and passing yards per game and 3.6 touchdowns. The four quarterbacks who didn't win conference titles — Daniels, Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson and Johnny Manziel — posted 387.6 combined rushing and passing yards per game and 3.9 touchdowns.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Heisman Trophy odds: Ole Miss football's Jaxson Dart among favorites