Ole Miss basketball vs. Mississippi State score prediction, scouting report for rivalry game

david eckert, mississippi clarion ledger

Mon, Jan 29, 2024, 12:02 PM·4 min read

OXFORD — Both of Mississippi's SEC fan bases have meaningful basketball to look forward to down the stretch as Ole Miss and Mississippi State prepare for their first of two rivalry matchups this season.

The Rebels (17-3, 4-3 SEC) and Bulldogs (14-6, 3-4) are each coming off noteworthy wins as they prepare to clash at the SJB Pavilion in Oxford on Tuesday (7:30 p.m., SEC Network).

Mississippi State took down a ranked Auburn team at home on Saturday, while the Rebels secured an important win over Texas A&M on the road.

Here's what to watch for.

What to know about Ole Miss basketball

The Rebels remain unbeaten at home this season and have won their three SEC games at the SJB Pavilion by an average of 19 points. That outstanding record does, however, include two games against teams at the bottom of the SEC. Vanderbilt and Arkansas combined own a 1-12 conference record.

When Ole Miss has been met with top-100 opposition at home, though, it has succeeded. The Rebels previously obliterated NC State and Florida, and also own a win over Memphis.

Many of their victories have been carved out with the deep ball. The Rebels cash in on 38.4% of their 3-pointers. Among SEC teams, only Alabama and Kentucky are more efficient. Mississippi State brings an elite 3-point defense into this rivalry clash, but pairs that with some of the conference's worst shooting metrics.

Chris Beard has built the Rebels into an NCAA Tournament contender using the transfer portal to great effect. Forward Allen Flanigan and point guard Jaylen Murray are true difference-makers, with 7-foot big man Moussa Cisse beginning to exert his influence in the starting lineup as well.

But Ole Miss has been driven forward by improvement from some of the players who elected to stay in Oxford despite the coaching turnover.

Guard Matthew Murrell is Ole Miss' talisman, and he's having his best season as a Rebel, averaging 16.6 points per game with a 47.4% success rate from the field. Likewise, Jaemyn Brakefield has been a difference-maker for the Rebels, scoring 12 points per game.

REBELS: Jaylen Murray's clutch bucket completes Ole Miss basketball comeback against Texas A&M

What to know about Mississippi State basketball

When it comes to quality wins, there's no debate that the Bulldogs have the edge, collecting a pair of top-10 KenPom victories over Auburn and Tennessee.

Both of those wins came at home, though. Mississippi State is 0-4 in true road games this season.

Having missed the first 12 games of the regular season because of injury, star big man Tolu Smith has returned to form. The 6-11 native of Bay St. Louis is scoring even more prolifically than he did last season, averaging 17.1 points per game.

The primary supplemental scoring from Chris Jans' team comes from true freshman guard Josh Hubbard, who started for the first time in Mississippi State's win over Auburn on Saturday.

Hubbard, who ranks among the 10 highest-scoring freshmen in the country at 14.9 points per game, is a former Ole Miss signee who was released from his National Letter of Intent after former coach Kermit Davis was fired.

The defensive-minded Bulldogs roster has three players who average more than a steal per game: Cameron Matthews (2.1), Dashawn Davis (1.6) and DJ Jeffries (1.2).

Jans' team ranks among the nation's top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the second consecutive season. The Bulldogs' proficiency on the offensive glass, where they're among the best in the conference, could pose a problem for the Rebels. Ole Miss has been the worst defensive-rebounding team in the SEC since conference play began.

Due to personal matters, Mississippi State has been without transfer guard Andrew Taylor since Dec. 13 and forward KeShawn Murphy since Jan. 6.

BULLDOGS: Josh Hubbard nearly ended up at Ole Miss. Against Auburn, he was Mississippi State's basketball star