Can Ohio State build a March Madness resume? 'Miracles happen in March,' Roddy Gayle says
The longest February in four years seemed to have no end for the Ohio State men's basketball team as it approached the midpoint.
On the eve of Valentine’s Day, the Buckeyes lost 62-54 at No. 20 Wisconsin. They never led, they trailed by as many as 17 points and they fell to 14-11 overall and 4-10 in the Big Ten by taking a ninth loss in 11 games. The next day, athletic director Gene Smith fired coach Chris Holtmann and promoted associate head coach Jake Diebler to the interim role with six games remaining.
March never seemed farther away, a feeling only emboldened by 2024 being a leap year. That extra day of February afforded Ohio State one more game before the sport turned its attention to March Madness and the Buckeyes prepared for whatever abyss awaited their offseason.
Then Ohio State took down No. 2 Purdue in Diebler’s first game. And it won at Michigan State, snapping a 17-game road losing streak in thrilling fashion. And Thursday night at Value City Arena, it beat Nebraska 78-69 moving the Buckeyes to 3-1 under Diebler and leading fifth-year forward Jamison Battle to take note of the time of year and where they still believe the season could be headed.
“If you look at the calendar, it’s February 29th today,” he said. “Tomorrow is March. The Madness begins tomorrow. We’re not ready to go home. That’s the mentality that we have, that March is upon us. Let the Madness begin.”
The NCAA Tournament will get started with First Four games in Dayton on March 19 and 20. Ohio State enters the season’s premier month 17-12 overall and 7-11 in the Big Ten. A Sunday home game with Michigan and a March 10 season finale at Rutgers are all that stand between the Buckeyes and the postseason. As Battle would point out, he’s guaranteed only three more games in his collegiate career.
Given how the past two weeks have gone, though, Ohio State is hoping for more.
“We all played with an edge to us,” sophomore guard Roddy Gayle Jr. said after the Nebraska win. “That nastiness we talked about at the beginning of the year has come alive. Miracles happen in March. Why not be the underdog?”
It wouldn’t take a miracle for the Buckeyes to reach the NCAA Tournament, but a few extra prayers and some divine intervention couldn't hurt. With the win over the Cornhuskers, Ohio State climbed only two spots in the NCAA’s NET rankings used by the selection committee to seed the tournament. The Buckeyes are No. 63 after the rankings refreshed overnight.
To overcome a resume that includes eight losses in nine games, one of which is a damaging Quad 3 loss in the NCAA’s NET rankings, the Buckeyes have to keep winning. Ohio State is 12th in the Big Ten, currently ticketed for an opening-day game in the conference tournament.
The Big Ten has six teams in the top 50 of the NET, which is the Quad 1 cutoff for a neutral-court game. The Buckeyes could get a Quad 1 opportunity Thursday depending on how the bracket is seeded and would almost certainly get one should they still be playing Friday.
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Beating Michigan and Rutgers would get Ohio State to 19-12 entering the Big Ten Tournament and give the Buckeyes their first four-game winning streak against high-major competition this season. Michigan (No. 129 in the NET) is a Quad 3 game and Rutgers (No. 90) is currently a Quad 2 game.
Aside from the volume of losses, Ohio State’s resume has two glaring deficiencies in the eyes of the NET. The rankings put a premium on road success, and both reward Quad 1 wins and punish losses in either of the two bottom quadrants.
With the wins against Purdue and Michigan State, the Buckeyes are 3-6 in Quad 1. The only other such win was a 92-81 victory against No. 17 Alabama on Nov. 25.
The loss holding Ohio State back is a 76-73 home one to Indiana on Feb. 6. The Buckeyes led that game by 18 points but came undone in the second half against a Hoosiers team ranked No. 105 in the NET, making it a Quad 3 defeat.
The Buckeyes are actually higher in the NET than two of the high-major teams to play in last year’s First Four. Arizona State was No. 66 in the NET last year and Pittsburgh was No. 67, but both made it to Dayton largely because they had six Quad 1 wins. Pitt was 9-10 in the first two quadrants and Arizona State was 10-12. Ohio State is 5-11 in such games.
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Had Ohio State held that lead against Indiana, and an 18-point lead in what became an 83-80 loss at Penn State on Dec. 9, it would be 3-4 in Quad 2, 6-10 in the first two quadrants and 13-0 in the bottom two quadrants. The Buckeyes would also be 19-10 and, at worst, on the bubble. The same is true for dozens of teams across the nation, where a few more made shots or a couple extra defensive stops could have made all the difference.
It’s a lot to ask Ohio State to rattle off a streak of six or seven wins to punch a ticket to March Madness given where the season stands.
Just don’t tell that to the Buckeyes at this time of year.
“As long as there’s a Big Ten Tournament, we’re not out of the picture,” Diebler said before the Nebraska game.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Can Ohio State's late-season surge put the Buckeyes in March Madness?
