How do oddsmakers and national writers like the Bucks' chances in the 2024 NBA playoffs?
The Milwaukee Bucks know their path to reach the NBA Finals after Sunday's finale — it'll require a matchup with sixth-seeded Indiana to start with. If Milwaukee gets out of the first round, the Bucks could see the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics on a road toward a championship.
Milwaukee enters the postseason under dubious circumstances. The Bucks closed the year with eight losses in 11 games, and we're not sure how healthy we can expect star Giannis Antetokounmpo to be — he left the April 9 game with a strain in his calf. There's also the specter of history, one year after the top-seeded Bucks were shocked in the first round of the playoffs by the eighth-seeded Miami Heat.
But how do national writers and oddsmakers feel about Milwaukee's chances to win the title for the second time in four years?
The Bucks have the fourth-best odds to win the title
The Boston Celtics are seen as the favorite to win the title with +175 odds, but the Bucks are second in the Eastern Conference, even after losing the No. 2 seed to the New York Knicks in the final throes of the regular season.
The Bucks are given +1200 odds by BetMGM, fourth-best in the overall field. Denver (+310) and the Los Angeles Clippers (+800) are next on the list, with Oklahoma City (+1600) following Milwaukee.
The "futures" odds like these indicate how much money can be made on a $100 bet. So someone betting $100 on the Bucks will win $1,200 (plus the initial bet back). Betting $200 means double ($2,400 winnings). Betting $50 means half ($600 winnings).
Different betting services offer slightly different numbers, but the Bucks are almost universally slotted with the fourth-best odds to win the title.
NBA.com previews the opening series and picks the Bucks … but barely
John Schuhmann of NBA.com observed how comfortable Indiana looked in the regular season against the Bucks, winning four of five games.
He cited transition defense as a thing to watch for the Bucks.
"The Bucks saw defensive improvement as the season went on, partially because they were better in transition, allowing 12.2 fast break points per game after the All-Star break, down from 14.3 before the break. Of course, it’s been a while since they faced the team that ranked fourth in fast break points per game. The Pacers were 23-4 when they registered at least 20 fast break points."
His pick? Bucks in seven.
"If Antetokounmpo is fully healthy for Game 1, this could be a shorter series. And if he’s not healthy by the time the series moves to Indiana for Games 3 and 4, the Bucks could be in serious trouble," Schuhmann wrote.
Another prediction also selects the Bucks in seven
Gilbert McGregor of The Sporting News takes the Bucks in the full seven, as well.
"Milwaukee appears to be very vulnerable but there's something to be said about its playoff experience and the chip on its shoulder after struggling against Indiana in the regular season," he wrote. "If Antetokounmpo is ready to go when the series opens, the Bucks could get it done in six games. The series will extend if he is at all hobbled to start."
Bucks one of the 'losers' of wild regular-season finish
Seerat Sohi of The Ringer identified the Bucks as one of the losers of the final day in the season, when there was a ton of movement in the league standings. That included the Bucks sliding to the No. 3 seed thanks to their loss to the Orlando Magic.
"While it’s worth noting that the Pacers won four of their five regular-season games against the Bucks before the momentum-curdling Tyrese Haliburton injury and Pascal Siakam trade, they still boast a combination of paint penetration, quickness, and frontcourt stretchiness that should give Milwaukee fits," Sohi wrote.
"Even then, I’d be willing to split hairs about the perks of playing the Pacers over the zombie Heat or healthy and hot Sixers, if not for the fact that the Bucks are limping — literally and metaphorically — into the postseason. They’re in a real focus-on-ourselves moment, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. The availability of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is sidelined with a calf strain, remains a question. Lillard and Khris Middleton, who shot 8-for-29 against the Magic, have yet to find anything resembling a consistent, synchronized rhythm. The Pats are on cardio watch. The Bucks are now just 17-19 in the unceremonious Doc Rivers era."
The Athletic focuses on Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers defense
Here's how John Hollinger of The Athletic sized up the meeting in his story previewing all the playoff battles.
"If Indiana is going to pull this off, it needs the early season version of Tyrese Haliburton and not the one who labored through much of February and March with the after-effects of a hamstring injury. Trade deadline pickup Pascal Siakam didn’t play in any of the five games against Milwaukee, but he raises Indiana’s ceiling and gives it another potential Giannis defender.
"Now, can the Pacers’ 24th-ranked defense get any stops? Facing a Damian Lillard pick-and-roll with Antetokounmpo screening isn’t for the faint of heart."
Could former Milwaukee Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer have a new NBA job soon?
Speaking of the Bucks and a chase for an NBA championship, the head coach of the 2021 run might be back in the league soon.
A report from The Athletic indicates that Budenholzer is one of the coaches in serious consideration for the vacant Brooklyn Nets job.
Budenholzer was fired after the Bucks lost their first-round series with Miami, initially replaced by Adrian Griffin —who was then replaced himself by Doc Rivers. The Nets fired Jacque Vaughn on Feb. 19.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Bucks' odds, predictions vs Pacers in NBA playoffs, to win NBA title