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Oakland basketball vs Kentucky in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA tournament opener

Oakland basketball vs. Kentucky

ROCHESTER — Breaking down the South Region first-round game between No. 3 Kentucky and No. 14 Oakland:

Records: No. 3 Kentucky (23-9, 13-5 SEC); No. 14 Oakland (23-11, 15-5 Horizon).

Fast facts: Time TBA, Thursday, PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh.

TV: TBA.

At stake: Winner faces winner of No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 NC State on Saturday for spot in Sweet 16.

About Oakland

Location: Rochester.

Coach: Greg Kampe (40 seasons, all at Oakland, 698-536 overall).

Oakland forward Trey Townsend (4) dunks against Purdue Fort Wayne during the second half of Horizon League tournament quarterfinal at O'Rena in Rochester on Thursday, March 7, 2024.
Oakland forward Trey Townsend (4) dunks against Purdue Fort Wayne during the second half of Horizon League tournament quarterfinal at O'Rena in Rochester on Thursday, March 7, 2024.

School tournament record: This is the Golden Grizzlies' fourth NCAA tournament Appearance. Oakland is 1-3 in its previous appearances, its lone win was as 16-seed in play-in game over Alabama A&M in 2005, 79-69. It lost in the Round of 64 that season, as well as in 2010 and 2011. Oakland has never made the Round of 32.

Past 10 games (counting Horizon League tournament): 8-2

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Point leaders: Trey Townsend, 16.9 points per game; Blake Lampman, 13.2; Jack Gohlke, 12.2; Chris Conway, 10.1.

Rebound leaders: Townsend, 7.8 rebounds per game; Isaiah Jones, 4.5; Conway, 4.1; Gohlke, 4.1; DQ Cole, 4.0.

Assist leaders: Townsend, 3.1 assists per game; Lampman, 3.0.

3-point leaders: Gohlke, 37.0%; Lampman, 36.9%; Cole, 35.2%.

The buzz: Perhaps it's because Kampe was handing out Shamrock Shakes, but whatever the reason on this St. Patrick's Day, it feels like all the good vibes and juju are with the Golden Grizzlies. The longest-tenured coach in the nation will be one of the feel good stories of the tournament after he led Oakland to Horizon League regular season and tournament titles. The leader of the Golden Grizzlies is Trey Townsend. His parents, Skip Townsend and Nicole Leigh, both played at Oakland, and he's known Kampe since before he began elementary school. Fittingly, it was the career effort from the 6-foot-7 forward with 38 points and 11 rebounds in the conference title game that propelled Oakland to its first NCAA tournament in 13 years. Blake Lampman is the 6-3 sharpshooter who averages 13.2 points per game, making 36.9% of his 3s on nearly nine attempts per game and shot 95.5% from the free-throw line. Jack Gohlke is a floor spacer and Chris Conway is about as long and athletic as anyone Kampe has. After a 6-8 start to the year — which included close losses to Ohio State (by six) as well as to three NCAA tournament teams in Illinois (by 11), Drake (by 8) and Michigan State (by 17) — Oakland won 17 of its final 20 games, with two losses coming on the road, one of which was in overtime.

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"Blue-blood, greatest fan base in the world, my guess is the most national exposure will be on that," Kampe said immediately after the draw Sunday night inside the O'Rena. "So if we're going to be there, we might as well not get exposed, but have the exposure of getting in this tournament and playing arguably the greatest basketball program in the country.

"I don't think it could be better for us."

About Kentucky

Location: Lexington, Kentucky.

Coach: John Calipari (32 seasons, 15 at Kentucky; 813-259).

School tournament record: 132-55, 60 previous appearances, most of any school.

Record past 10 games (counting SEC tournament): 7-3.

Scoring leaders: Antonio Reeves, 20.0 points per game; Rob Dillingham, 15.4; Reed Sheppard, 12.8; Tre Mitchell, 10.6; D.J. Wagner, 10.3.

Rebounding leaders: Mitchell, 7.0; Adou Thiero, 5.2; Ugonna Onyenso; Sheppard, 4.3; Reeves, 4.2.

Assist leaders: Sheppard, 4.5; Dillingham, 3.9; Wagner, 3.3.

3-point leaders: Sheppard, 52.5%; Dillingham, 44.9%; Reeves, 44.1%.

Kentucky's guard Antonio Reeves (12) was introduced as a senior before the game against Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., Wednesday, Mar. 6, 2024
Kentucky's guard Antonio Reeves (12) was introduced as a senior before the game against Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., Wednesday, Mar. 6, 2024

The buzz: The Wildcats are in the handful of true blue blood programs in the nation. Outside of a 2-4 stretch in late January to early February, and an early season upset by UNC Wilmington, Kentucky was largely consistent. It features one of the best offenses in the nation, rated No. 5 per KenPom (122.7 adjusted offense) behind only UConn, Alabama, Illinois and Purdue. The Wildcats are the best 3-point shooting team in the nation and the ninth-largest team in "average height." Prior to getting eliminated by a desperate Texas A&M team in the SEC tournament, UK had won five straight and scored 85 points or more in each game. Calipari and Kampe go way back; they were introduced to one another about 20 years ago by a renown basketball figure Worldwide Wes. Kampe said the two were texting earlier this week about how they were likely going to play one another.

Prediction

Oakland's success this year has largely been predicated on its "dribble-drive" defense. Who taught that to Kampe? Calipari. Together, the two have more than seven decades of coaching experience and 1,500 victories. Oakland has enough experience that Kampe said his group will not be intimidated by the name on the front of their opponents jersey or by the size of the stage. But that doesn't mean the Grizzlies have enough fire power to hang with Kentucky. UK has five players who average in double figures, is one of the tallest teams in the country and can shoot the lights out, with a national championship coach in the huddle. Though Kampe likes the draw in some ways — the game will be in Pittsburgh — there's no denying it's a monumental task. The pick: Kentucky 91, Oakland 74.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Oakland vs Kentucky prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in