NFL Playoff Projection: Jaguars-Texans could end up deciding AFC South title

Senior writer

Wed, Nov 22, 2023, 4:46 PM·5 min read

Here is Frank Schwab's projected NFL playoff picture, i.e. how he thinks the postseason field will shake out, as we enter Week 12. (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports)

There's a lot of football to be played after Week 12, but if the Houston Texans want to win a division title they probably need to win on Sunday.

The Texans are a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars, who come to Houston for a game between the AFC South's two best teams. Houston could lose to the Jaguars on Sunday and win a division title, but the odds of that happening would be pretty long.

The Texans have already beat Jacksonville once this season, a shocking 37-17 result in Week 3 that might have knocked you out of your survival pool. The Texans have been one of the surprises of the NFL season behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. A win Sunday would vault them squarely into the playoff picture.

Houston is either going to come out of Sunday's game tied for the AFC South lead with the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Jaguars clinched, or two games back and trailing in the tiebreakers. That's a massive difference.

The Texans' loss to the Indianapolis Colts back in Week 2 matters in this conversation. A loss to the Jaguars would be their second divisional loss and the Jaguars have only one. If the Jaguars sweep the rest of their AFC South games — all they have left after Houston is their Week 18 game at the Tennessee Titans — they'll own the tiebreaker over the Texans. In other words, Houston would be in a big hole with a loss Sunday.

That would be OK. The Texans weren't supposed to be competing for a division title this season. They've been one of the NFL's surprises, with Stroud playing out of his mind and DeMeco Ryans being in the NFL Coach of the Year conversation. If they don't win the AFC South this season, it seems there are some division titles in their near future.

And with a win on Sunday, they might even win one this season.

Here are the Week 12 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

A loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11 puts the Seahawks in a hard place. They were already underdogs to win the division and a loss put them not only a game behind the 49ers, but also it was another divisional loss that hurts them in the tiebreaker. The Seahawks probably need to sweep the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that seems unlikely.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

For the second straight season, we need to talk about the NFC South because the rules say they must have a playoff team. The 5-5 Saints have been disappointing but not as disappointing as the 4-6 Falcons, who will turn back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback this week. The 4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers also factor in the race, but this game will shape the NFC South picture for the rest of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Both of these teams might fall out of the AFC wild-card race, but Sunday will really be bad for the losing team. The Steelers just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Bengals lost Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. A loss on Sunday will sink them even deeper into a hole.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are on the fringe of the playoff race after their resurgence, and a win would really get them in the discussion. That's mostly because the Browns are one of the other teams that will factor in the AFC wild-card race (or perhaps the AFC North race), though they're vulnerable because of their quarterback situation. Denver having the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cleveland could come into play down the road. A win by the Broncos on Sunday would be a big step for them.

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills might need to steal a game somewhere to make up for some bad losses. There would be no shame in losing to the Eagles, but it would knock the Bills back to 6-6. No matter how good analytics think the Bills are, they need to win enough games to make the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins aren't going anywhere in the AFC East and there are a lot of teams in the AFC wild-card race. An upset win at Philadelphia would help Buffalo's outlook.