There's no great argument against Tua Tagovailoa as the MVP at this early point in the season, but one point does carry some weight: He has yet to be great against a good defense.

Tagovailoa has great numbers and most of them have come against terrible defenses like the Broncos, Giants and Panthers. He didn't look so great against the Bills, the Miami Dolphins' biggest test to date. This week brings another challenge at the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles haven't been great yet this season, but playing at Philly on Sunday night sets up the perfect talking point for next week: If Tagovailoa struggles, those who refuse to give him any credit for being a good quarterback (and there are many more of them than there should be) will be vindicated. If Tagovailoa plays well and the Dolphins win, talking heads will start talking about Tagovailoa's MVP credentials like it hasn't been a thing since Week 1.

The Dolphins are a hard team to figure out. They're good. Are they great? Is the offense really all-time great, or has it bullied horrible defenses? Is Miami's defense, which is 27th in DVOA, good enough to support the offense anyway? Is Tagovailoa really the best quarterback in football this season or is regression coming?

We'll find out more Sunday night. Even if the Eagles seem to be a bit disappointing, they're still 5-1 with perhaps the deepest roster in the NFL. They are a Super Bowl contender and will be the rest of the season. If the Dolphins go into Philadelphia and win, it will stamp them as a contender as well.

I'll take the Dolphins as a 2.5-point underdog. It's a great game and a great test for Miami and I'm content to take the points. How the Dolphins play Sunday will shape the narrative on them for the rest of the season, for better or worse.

Here are the picks for Week 7 of the NFL season, with odds from BetMGM:

Saints (-1) over Jaguars

I'm going New Orleans even if Trevor Lawrence plays, as discussed in The Daily Sweat.

Raiders (-3) over Bears

This game is why nobody should complain about rules that protect quarterbacks. You're excited to see Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell versus Tyson Bagent? Sure you are. I really don't know what's going to happen in this game, but I'm not ready to back the Bears with an undrafted rookie QB out of NCAA Division II Shepherd.

Browns (-3) over Colts

We're about to see a lot of Browns games in which you can insert "it's hard to know what to make of them with (backup quarterback) possibly playing." Is Deshaun Watson going to play for the Browns or is it P.J. Walker? I assume it'll be Watson, though that's probably wrong.

Patriots (+8.5) over Bills

The Bills have played six games. They've been great in three and pretty bad in three. I think the Bills are a very good team but top teams usually don't play poorly half the time. The Patriots certainly are not good, but one of these weeks they'll compete.

Giants (+2.5) over Commanders

Daniel Jones should be back, which is good. The main question is whether the Giants played their Super Bowl last week in barely losing to the Bills, or if they actually are going to carry over a pretty solid performance to another week. The Commanders won last week but that happened despite the Falcons outplaying them. New York might be ready to show some signs of life. We'll see.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Falcons

Tampa Bay and Atlanta are probably the Spider-Mans pointing at each other meme at this point: Both NFC South teams are good enough to beat bad teams but not going to threaten anyone good. Tampa Bay's only losses are against Philadelphia and Detroit. The Falcons have beat the Panthers, Packers and Texans, all at home, and lost to the Lions, Jaguars and Commanders. What happens when two mediocre teams meet? Take the one that didn't lose to the Commanders at home, I guess.

Lions (+3) over Ravens

If the Lions win this game we'll have to have a serious "is Detroit the best team in football?" chat. I think this will be everyone's underdog pick of the week and that usually doesn't go well, but I have too much respect for the Lions to lay a field goal against them. And if the Ravens win, they'll start to get more respect as a contender this season. This should be a heck of a game.

Steelers (+3) over Rams

Maybe I'm hanging on too long to the idea of the Steelers being OK, particularly on offense. But the defense is legit. The Rams are good too, but they'll be scrambling a bit at running back. I'm fine taking the points, and think Pittsburgh can win straight up too.

Cardinals (+7.5) over Seahawks

We've probably reached the point in which Arizona has settled into its level as one of the worst teams in football. Those first few weeks when they were covering spreads was fun while it lasted. That said, more than a touchdown seems like a lot for a Seahawks team that likes to play close games.

Packers (-1) over Broncos

I don't think any NFL team tanks. At the very least, they don't tank in October. However, if there was a team tanking, it would look a lot like the 2023 Broncos. Some of Sean Payton's decisions have been ... curious. If the Packers lose this, I'll officially give up on them being any good this season.

Chargers (+5.5) over Chiefs

Is it OK to not be blown away by the Chiefs yet this season? They're good, but not great yet. We're acting like they're great, right down to Patrick Mahomes being a co-favorite to win MVP. I'll take the points and assume the Chargers will play a close game and find a way to lose.

49ers (-6.5) over Vikings

The Vikings won their first game without Justin Jefferson but it was not pretty. Kirk Cousins had 181 yards on 31 attempts against a bad Bears defense. The 49ers come in angry after losing to the Browns. I don't like taking big road favorites in prime-time spots, but this is a bad spot for the Vikings.

Last week: 6-9

Season to date: 47-44-2