By this time of the NFL season, you better be checking the weather forecast before you fire off a bet.

And even though bad weather is part of the equation for plenty of outdoor games in late December, this seems to be one of the wildest weather weekends of the season.

Here are the worst forecasts for Week 16, from Field Yates of ESPN:

That's not fun. Weather concerns were a big reason we have a ridiculously low total for an NFL game. Saints at Browns is at 32.5. That's rare but understandable given the forecast of low temperatures, high winds and perhaps precipitation too.

With every game above (and maybe even the Bengals-Patriots game, which could be under 20 degrees), we'll have to consider the weather and how it affects those teams. It's a pretty big question for the Buffalo Bills.

In normal conditions, there wouldn't be much worry about the Bills beating the Chicago Bears. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites at BetMGM. Buffalo still is likely to win, but its pass-first offense won't be happy to play in horrible weather. Here's the National Weather Service's winter storm warning, which goes from Thursday to Saturday morning: "Snow and blowing snow producing occasional white-out conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph expected. Wind chill values of 25 to 35 below zero expected."

Even if it's not that bad by kickoff at noon on Saturday, it's not going to be good. The Bills want to pass the ball. They have the third-highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL; the Bears have the lowest PROE. No matter how strong Josh Allen's arm is, if winds are gusting to 40 miles per hour in 10-degree weather as expected, the Bills aren't going to want to pass the ball.

Maybe the Bills win a grind-it-out game, but I'll pick the Bears and the points in anticipation of a low-scoring, ugly game. There will be a few ugly games this weekend. Make sure to take a last look at that forecast before placing that bet.

Here are the NFL picks against the spread for Week 16, with point spreads from BetMGM:

Jaguars (+2) over Jets

It's mostly a pick of the hotter team and much better quarterback, though as stated in today's Daily Sweat, there's a good case to be made for the Jets, too.

Browns (-3) over Saints

This game will be brutal. Just remember before taking that or any other under due to the bad weather: Awful conditions also lead to interceptions, fumbles, bad punts and other mistakes that lead to short fields and quick touchdowns. For the side, I'm surprised the Browns are just a field goal favorite. Cleveland seems built for this type of game.

Titans (-3.5) over Texans

The Titans can't afford to take this one lightly. The Jaguars are right behind them. But Ryan Tannehill's ankle injury is certainly a reason the line is moving toward Houston. The spread has moved enough that I'm fine fading a Texans team that is playing hard but is still really bad.

Seahawks (+10) over Chiefs

The Seahawks have some extra rest and will be happy to be facing a defense much easier than the 49ers, who bottled them up last week. The Seahawks have faced a few tough defenses during their slump. The Chiefs are clearly capable of covering this big spread, but I'll take a Seahawks team that really needs wins.

Vikings (-4) over Giants

There is a bit of a concern over the Vikings' motivation. They're pretty much stuck with the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. That's a weird place to be with three games left in the season. But I also think the Vikings' hate has gone too far. The Commanders were 4.5-point favorites over the Giants last week, and now the Vikings are only -4 against New York? The Vikings aren't great and as everyone who knows the term "regression" has told you already, they're not as good as their 11-3 record. But they're also not that bad either.

Patriots (+3.5) over Bengals

Look ahead spot for the Bengals? They get the Bills next week at home for "Monday Night Football." After that is a game against the Ravens that will very likely be the AFC North championship game. Meanwhile, the Patriots need to steal one after giving a game away last week at the Raiders. And it's a week in which everyone is writing off New England, and we know what happens then. This seems set up for an upset.

Lions (-2.5) over Panthers

You'll see debate on #GamblingTwitter if there's such a thing as a trap line, but if they do exist, this is it. Who's taking the Panthers in this game, with the spread at less than a field goal? Carolina had been playing better but looked bad against the Steelers last week. The Lions have won five of six and know they need to keep winning to make the playoffs. I should take the Panthers just to be contrarian, but it's hard to make a case for them.

Falcons (+7) over Ravens

Will Lamar Jackson play? He hasn't been practicing and that doesn't bode well. We've seen the Ravens offense with Tyler Huntley and it's not good. The weather will be awful and running the ball all the time suits the Falcons anyway. I don't know how you could take the Ravens giving a touchdown, especially if Jackson is out again.

49ers (-7) over Commanders

Like the Vikings before, it's hard to figure out the 49ers' motivation these final three weeks. Maybe the No. 2 seed matters for the 49ers — Kyle Shanahan seems like he'll keep his foot on the gas — but San Francisco knows that it's almost locked into the second or third seed with three weeks left. I'll take a chance on the 49ers defense overwhelming the Commanders, but I can see a more motivated Washington team covering.

Eagles (+6) over Cowboys

For a while it seemed like this would be one of the games of the year. But after Dallas lost last week, the Cowboys are 94 percent to be the No. 5 seed in the NFC and the Eagles are 97.9 percent to be the No. 1 seed, per Football Outsiders' playoff odds. In other words, there's not a lot to play for. Jalen Hurts' injury also changes things, of course. I do believe the Eagles will rally around Gardner Minshew, who might be the best backup quarterback in the league. Philly is really good around the quarterback position. I'll take the Eagles.

Steelers (-2.5) over Raiders

Another bad weather game. Do we want to take the Las Vegas team over the Steelers? Not really. I'm not sure how much Franco Harris' death right before his number is retired motivates the current Steelers, but it will be an emotional crowd. I'd also assume Mike Tomlin, with his appreciation of Harris and Steelers history, will remind his team of what Harris meant to the city and franchise as it celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. It could be a tough night for the Raiders.

Packers (+4) over Dolphins

Maybe it's unwise to buy into the Packers after they beat the Bears and Rams. But they have looked better. And the Packers know this is their season. If they beat Miami, they have two home games after that and can have some realistic hope to make the playoffs. Miami looked good against Buffalo last week so this pick isn't a fade of the Dolphins. I just think we see the best the Packers have to offer.

Broncos (-2.5) over Rams

Just think, when this game was put on the schedule it looked like a fun game. I trust the Broncos defense in this matchup. And that's all.

Cardinals (+7.5) over Buccaneers

No, I don't want to pick a Trace McSorley-led Cardinals team. But the Buccaneers are bad. They beat the Rams and Saints with last-second touchdowns in games they should have lost, and if they did lose those two games they'd be 1-8 in their last nine games. Now I'm supposed to lay more than a touchdown with them on the road? Can't do it. But to be clear, this is a "just because I pick every game" selection. Stay away.

Colts (+4.5) over Chargers

Can Nick Foles give the Colts a spark? The QB change can't hurt. And wouldn't it be just like the Chargers to blow this game? I'll take the points.

Last week: 7-9

Season to date: 117-102-3