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NFL mock draft 2024: Michael Penix Jr. lands in top 12, J.J. McCarthy in surprise spot

victoria hernandez, usa today
·16 min read
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The 2024 NFL draft is inching closer and closer.

With the NFL combine wrapped up, some prospects made a splash with their historic performances while other scratched heads with their out-of-this-world conspiracy theories.

USA TODAY Sports NFL expert Nate Davis released his latest mock draft on Monday. He projects that six quarterbacks will be taken in the first 16 picks. NFL editor Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz shared his projections for the draft before the combine.

Now, it's Victoria Hernandez's turn to predict which college stars will have their NFL dreams come true. Here are her 2024 NFL mock draft projections compared to USA TODAY Sports' other NFL experts:

2024 NFL mock draft: Round 1

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers)

It's tough to say the Justin Fields days in Chicago are officially over. His teammates still believe in him. But Caleb Williams proved himself as 2022's best college football player and furthered his status as a superstar with some impressive performances last season. Him not participating at the NFL combine is no reason for concern and, if anything, shows his confidence in his skills. And the Bears could use a boost of confidence.

If the Bears trade the No. 1 pick away yet again, it's likely another team (Commanders? Patriots?) would pick Williams, anyways. Whether it's the Bears picking or another team, it's going to be Williams at No. 1.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels won last season's Heisman with an astonishing season (3,812 passing yards and 40 touchdowns) at LSU. The Commanders have some tools on offense, including Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, who has quietly had four straight 1,000-yard seasons despite a quarterback carousel. Give the wide receiver a slinger and see what happens.

3. New England Patriots

  • Hernandez: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

  • Davis: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

It is a new era for the Patriots with Jerod Mayo taking the reins from Bill Belichick. And that has to include a new quarterback. New England is still reeling from losing Tom Brady, who won his first Super Bowl when Drake Maye was in his momma's womb. The North Carolina quarterback is accurate and consistent and that's what New England needs.

4. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are probably regretting letting DeAndre Hopkins go. Kyler Murray wasn't exactly a superstar in his return from an ACL tear last year and it's because he has so few tools around him. James Conner is a reliable running back and Murray can use his legs too, but Arizona needs some help to get the ball downfield. Marvin Harrison Jr., who is hoping to follow in his Hall of Fame father's footsteps, is just the guy they need.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Is this high for Brock Bowers? Maybe. But do the Chargers need him? Yes. Los Angeles is fully invested in quarterback Justin Herbert and it struggled to get anything going last season. The Bolts will probably lose Austin Ekeler to free agency and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been productive, but inconsistent due to injury. The Chargers, who know what it means to have a star tight end, could use some championship experience that Bowers brings.

6. New York Giants

The Giants honestly could pick someone at any offensive position and they'll be better off than they are now. Malik Nabers is a solid talent who helped boost Jayden Daniels' Heisman season. He knows what it means to step in and make an impact — he started six games and had 417 yards and four touchdowns his freshman year — which is something the Giants need. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase have made names for themselves jumping from LSU to the NFL. Nabers is hoping to be next and what better place than the Big Apple?

7. Tennessee Titans

The Titans desperately need help on the offensive line. Derrick Henry is a superstar running back and he was a shell of himself last season, tying a career-low with 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Titans most likely will lose the face of the franchise to free agency, but the point still stands and quarterback Will Levis will need help in his second year. Joe Alt was a captain at Notre Dame, quite the prestigious honor, and should jell with last year's first-round pick, Peter Skoronski.

8. Atlanta Falcons

  • Hernandez: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

  • Davis: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Is this a little early for Bo Nix to be drafted? Maybe. Are the Falcons in desperate need of a quarterback and proven leader? Yes. And yes, Nix is "old" at 24. But it also means he's got a lot of experience under his belt. Atlanta has plenty of needs on defense, too, but pairing Nix with Bijan Robinson just feels like the right formula for offensive success.

9. Chicago Bears

  • Hernandez: Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

  • Davis: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Bears are missing Roquan Smith and can hope to fill the defensive gap with Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner. The junior had 11 sacks his final season with the Crimson Tide and impressed at the combine. He also went to storied South Florida high school Saint Thomas Aquinas. So, he knows a thing or two about winning.

10. New York Jets

  • Hernandez: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

  • Davis: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

This is assuming Aaron Rodgers comes back from his Achilles injury and remains the quarterback of the Jets. New York already has a pretty reliable wideout in Garret Wilson, so adding Washington's Rome Odunze will help keep defenses on their toes. Odunze had his career-best 1,640 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns his junior year as the Huskies marched to the national championship. The team played with grit and resilience and that's what the Jets need a dose of.

11. Minnesota Vikings

  • Hernandez: Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA

  • Davis: Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama

The Vikings could be pretty set on offense if Kirk Cousins comes back (it's a big if) and Justin Jefferson stays healthy. They should use their first round pick to focus on defense. They most likely will lose the sack master Danielle Hunter to free agency. The defense has a fiery group who made their own celebration dances last season. Laiatu Latu will add strength, technical skills and resilience — he came back from a neck injury — to this scrappy team.

If Cousins does leave, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy would be a good fit here.

12. Denver Broncos

The Russell Wilson days are over in Denver. Michael Penix Jr. has the perfect underdog story to lead the Broncos out of their pit. The quarterback was a Heisman Trophy finalist with 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns. He marched the Huskies all the way to the national championship game. He brings leadership and humility that the Broncos need to make the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pierce is a defensive-minded coach, so although the Raiders need a lot of help a lot of places, he will start there. Jared Verse had 41 tackles and nine sacks his junior year with Florida State. He probably has a chip on his shoulder from the Seminoles being left out of the College Football Playoff and that hunger is exactly what the Raiders thrive off of.

14. New Orleans Saints

  • Hernandez: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

  • Davis: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

The Saints were less than stellar in Derek Carr's first season in New Orleans. It's partially because they have a similar problem as his former team, the Raiders. He doesn't have much help from the offensive line. Olu Fashanu was named the Big Ten offensive lineman of the year and first-team All-Big Ten after his 2023 campaign where he didn't allow a sack and helped Penn State's offense notch a conference-best 271 first downs. He suffered a thigh injury in the combine, but it doesn't seem serious and the captain would bring much-needed leadership to the team.

15. Indianapolis Colts

With Anthony Richardson back from injury and Jonathan Taylor locked in for a few more years, the Colts should focus on building their defense. Terrion Arnold was named a first-team All-American for his redshirt sophomore season after grabbing five interceptions.

16. Seattle Seahawks

  • Hernandez: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

  • Davis: QB Michael Penix, Washington

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA

The Seahawks have some ballers on defense, including last year's first round draft pick, Devon Witherspoon. They let go of Jamal Adams, who seemed to be a distraction more than a help. It would make sense to give some help up front and that's exactly what Byron Murphy II provides. In his junior year at Texas, he had five sacks and was named the Big 12 defensive lineman of the year.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Hernandez: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

  • Davis: OT JC Latham, Alabama

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

This might be a little low for the Oregon State tackle, but the Jaguars are a good fit. Trevor Lawrence got hurt — a lot — last year. He tried to power through ankle and shoulder injuries, but wouldn't it be nice if he didn't get hurt at all? So, working on the offensive line makes sense for Jacksonville. Taliese Fuaga reportedly did not allow a sack in 700 offensive snaps as the Beavers averaged 426.9 total yards per game last season.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals could lose Tee Higgins (who they used the franchise tag on), which could leave a gap open opposite Ja'Marr Chase. What better way to fill that hole than to add another LSU Tigers standout for Joe Burrow to throw to? Brian Thomas Jr. led the nation with 17 touchdown catches last season. He and Malik Nabers each had a 1,000-yard season, something that Chase and Justin Jefferson did together while donning the purple and yellow. Thomas might need a team where he can be the it-guy eventually. But the Bengals are a great spot for him to make the leap to the pros.

19. Los Angeles Rams

It's become clear Aaron Donald can't carry the Rams defense all by himself. And Matthew Stafford seems to have found a good rhythm adding Puka Nacua to the offensive mix. So, defense seems to be the route for the Rams in the first round, their first pick in the opening round in eight years. Missouri's Darius Robinson battled through injury last season, but finished leading the team with 43 tackles, 8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Hernandez: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

  • Davis: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

The Steelers have many needs to address, including offensive line. But their secondary is also an issue. Damontae Kazee's monster hit on Michael Pittman Jr. showed that this unit plays desperate, not strategically. Nate Wiggins brings a lot of speed — his 4.28 at the combine was the best at his position — and after a season with some veteran journeymen, his youth will bring new energy to the team.

21. Miami Dolphins

  • Hernandez: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

  • Davis: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington

Miami has an incredibly high-powered offense, so it should look to build on its defense. Quinyon Mitchell's 46 pass breakups in his college career is the most in program history and, during the 2022 season, he had four interceptions in one game. Despite not coming from a big-name program, putting him across veteran Jalen Ramsey will help him develop.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Hernandez: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C/G, Oregon

  • Davis: CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

It is an impossible job to fill the shoes of future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce. But the Eagles have to start somewhere. Jackson Powers-Johnson helped boost Bo Nix into a Heisman finalist last season. Powers-Johnson has incredible versatility and played right guard, right tackle, left guard and center with Oregon. So, there's no pressure to plug him into Kelce's position right away.

23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns)

The Texans won the draft last season with both of their first round picks turning out to be real gems. DeMeco Ryans will hope to keep the streak going and defense seems to be the logical direction. Ennis Rakestraw Jr. rebounded from injury to catch the attention of scouts. He had 35 tackles in his redshirt junior season and has all the intangibles to make an impact on a team that's riding the underdog wave.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb found a historic rhythm last season, but the Cowboys running game was a shadow of the glory days. Dallas might lose Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz to free agency, so it should look to bolster its offensive line. Amarius Mims was part of a Georgia unit that was fifth in the country with 496.5 yards of offense per game. Injury limited his production in his final season, but he proved himself enough to be a worthy NFL prospect.

25. Green Bay Packers

  • Hernandez: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

  • Davis: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

Jordan Love showed sparks of brilliance stepping in for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers should give him help up front so he can continue to build his confidence. There's a big question mark surrounding All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari and investing in a young talent would be a good move.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Hernandez: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

  • Davis: DE Chop Robinson, Penn State

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State

Is this too far for J.J. McCarthy to fall? Yes. But it happens sometimes. With Baker Mayfield potentially leaving in free agency, the Buccaneers could be in need of a quarterback. McCarthy is a proven winner who led Michigan through a controversy-riddled season to capture the national championship. Tampa Bay will be hungry to go deep in the playoffs again and will need someone reliable to feed the ball to Mike Evans.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston Texans)

  • Hernandez: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois

  • Davis: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri

After picking up Marvin Harrison Jr. earlier, the Cardinals should address the defense. Jer'Zhan Newton was the Big Ten defensive player of the year after posting 7.5 sacks. He was also a captain and will provide leadership.

28. Buffalo Bills

With the departures of Jordan Poyer and Tre'Davious White and Von Miller getting older, the Bills really need to bolster their defense. Cooper DeJean's 2023 campaign was cut short due to injury, but he had a solid year the season before with three pick-six interceptions and 75 total tackles.

29. Detroit Lions

  • Hernandez: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

  • Davis: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

The Lions' offensive line could be thinned out due to free agency. It was a unit that had a lot of success, so investing in some new talent would be a good move. JC Latham has made a mark at both IMG Academy and Alabama, two storied programs. He only allowed two sacks in 408 passing plays his final season with the Crimson Tide.

30. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens offense seems good to go after Lamar Jackson won his second MVP. The team, which historically has been known for its defense, should invest in another key player on that side of the ball. Edgerrin Cooper would fit nicely alongside Roquan Smith. Last season, the Texas A&M standout had eight sacks and led the Aggies with 84 total tackles.

31. San Francisco 49ers

  • Hernandez: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

  • Davis: DL Darius Robinson, Missouri

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

Troy Fautanu was named the top offensive lineman in the Pac-12 by the conference's defensive linemen. He has four years of playing time under his belt and would be a great addition.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Hernandez: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

  • Davis: WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

  • Middlehurst-Schwartz: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season with little help from their receiving corps, who at one point in the season had the most drops in the league. Troy Franklin knows what it's like to grab catches from a veteran quarterback as he racked up 1,383 receiving yards during Bo Nix's season as a Heisman finalist.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 NFL mock draft: QBs dominate Round 1, Michael Penix Jr. rises