NFL betting: Week 14 survivor pool picks
With six teams on bye in Week 14, survivor pool pickings are slimmer than Tom Hanks in Cast Away. If you're in a pool that requires you to make two selections, I hope you've been saving powerhouse teams like the Eagles and Cowboys (spoiler alert).
Survival skills — along with a bit of luck — were on full display in Week 13, as the 10 most popular picks all won their games. Only 1.75% of entries were knocked out.
Before we plunge into the Week 14 picks, let's gaze at the fire we made in Week 13:
Week 13 picks
Best Bets: 2-0 (YTD: 15-10)
Leans: 1-0 (YTD: 14-3)
Traps to avoid: 0 eliminations avoided (YTD: 14)
On to the Week 14 picks!
BEST BETS
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Giants
After a hot 6-1 start inflated the hopes of Giants fans, New York crashed back down to earth like Daniel Jones running in the open field. Brian Daboll's team has notched just one victory in their last five games. This week, they'll face an 11-1 Eagles squad that's a perfect 5-0 on the road and is hitting on all cylinders as Jalen Hurts catapults himself into the MVP mix with Patrick Mahomes. The Giants defense ranks 28th in DVOA and 27th in rushing EPA. Philly's offense ranks third and first in those categories. Over the last three weeks, no team is averaging more rushing yards per game than the Eagles (190.3), while New York has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game during that span (164.7).
Philadelphia had a run-stopping problem of their own coming out of their Week 7 bye, getting trampled by the Steelers, Texans, and Commanders. Since then, they've given up a respectable 97.3 rushing yards per game. Not bad for a defense squaring off against Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, and Derrick Henry.
The Eagles are the 12th-most popular survivor pick this week, at 0.63%.
Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) vs. Houston Texans
Fifteen years after the release of There Will Be Blood, we get to see an ornery oil tycoon administer a ruthless beatdown in his house all over again. Dallas sports the NFL's best defense and they'll be licking their chops against a Texans team that ranks last in offensive DVOA and hasn't topped 20 points in a game since Week 4.
Since Dak Prescott returned from injury in Week 7, the Cowboys have racked up the second-most yards per game (411.0), scored the most points per game (37.2), and converted the highest percentage of third downs (57%). Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are going to run wild on a Houston defense that's surrendering the most rushing yards per game (169.1). The only question on Sunday will be how many touchdowns Dallas will win by.
With just over 18% of entries locked in on them, the Cowboys are the third-most popular option this week.
LEANS
Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The Raiders' history of losing games they shouldn't runs deeper than the bowl used to cut Mark Davis' hair. And, yet, I can't talk myself out of taking them against a depleted and spiraling Rams team that's lost six in a row. Los Angeles ranks 27th in offensive DVOA and their quarterback situation is so dire that they went out and signed Baker Mayfield, who's dead last in nearly every QB metric this season. It doesn't matter which QB draws the start between Mayfield, John Wolford, and Bryce Perkins — I'm fading the Rams.
Las Vegas WR Davante Adams owns a 92.6 PFF grade when matched up against Los Angeles cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams defense is fourth-worst in EPA per dropback and pressures quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate. Derek Carr and Adams will combine for a big night and win a fourth straight game as the Raiders make a late-season push for the playoffs.
At 7%, Las Vegas is the fifth-most popular choice in survivor pools.
TRAPS TO AVOID
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Nearly 38% of the survivor field is on a 3.5-point favorite. This is a prime opportunity to gain some serious equity in your pool by going with another team. Carolina ranks fourth in rushing EPA and should find plenty of success on the ground against a Seattle defense giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (155.3). The Seahawks run defense has been especially atrocious over their last three outings, allowing 205 rushing yards per game.
Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags may have laid an egg last week, but they're still a dangerous team with a very solid quarterback. Titans receiver Treylon Burks has established himself as an integral piece of Tennessee's offense, but is likely to miss this game after suffering a concussion in Week 13. It's currently unclear whether edge rusher Denico Autry will be able to suit up after missing the last two weeks. I would be extremely hesitant to back a banged-up Titans team right now.
Tennessee is the second-most popular play this week, at 19.5%.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs. Cleveland Browns
Bengals coach Zac Taylor has never beaten Kevin Stefanski's Browns, losing all five matchups and getting throttled in two of the last three. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards rushing and scored two touchdowns in three of his last four games against the Bengals. This is unlikely to be the Cincinnati cakewalk many are expecting.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, StatMuse, CBS Sports, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
