NFL betting: The MVP is Tom Brady's to lose
There are now 14 weeks of NFL football in the books. Each team has played 13 games and each team has just four games remaining. The vast majority of the season is in the books. At this point of the year, we have a pretty good idea about what's going on in the league this season. Oddsmakers have seen enough to make Tom Brady an odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
Brady has been the MVP favorite for nearly a month now, but after his impressive performance in an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills, Brady currently sits at -150 to win MVP. Is there still value in betting Brady at this number? Does anyone else stand a chance?
An impressive feat for Brady
We all know that Tom Brady is 44 years old and we're all aware the fact that he's doing some remarkable things at his age. I'm still not convinced he gets nearly enough credit for doing what he's doing and how crazy it really is.
Put another way, after Tom Brady’s first Super Bowl win, Calvin Johnson graduated high school, went to college, was drafted 2nd overall, played an entire NFL career, retired, and was elected into the Hall of Fame.
And then Tom Brady won another Super Bowl.— Seahawks 5-8🔥🔥 (@JoelSigristFF) December 13, 2021
Through 13 games, Brady has thrown for 4,134 yards, 36 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. He's on pace for his best statistical season since his career-best 2007 season in New England. If Brady gets on a roll in the final four games of the year, it's not out of the question that he can eclipse those marks this season.
Brady's Buccaneers are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl with +425 odds. Arizona's loss on Monday night opens the door for Tampa Bay to clinch the one seed in the NFC and get a first round bye. Tampa Bay's schedule down the stretch features the collapsing Panthers twice, the beat-up Saints and the lowly Jets.
It's hard to see a loss for the Buccaneers in that stretch unless they rest players because a Week 18 game becomes meaningless, which is unlikely. Brady will likely play all four games as Tampa Bay will probably need to win out to secure the bye. These matchups are also far from tough, which gives Brady the opportunity to pad his stats even more. Would anyone be surprised if he threw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Jets in Week 17?
For that reason, I have no issues with laying -150 on Brady right now. In an ideal world, you've gotten him at plus-money at some point this season before today. If you're late to the party, I still think there's value in laying the juice.
Brady's competition for MVP
The next best odds for NFL MVP belong to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers currently has +550 odds to win the award.
On paper, Rodgers can compare to Brady. However, Rodgers won the award last year so there might be a case of voter fatigue. Additionally, this award is voted for by the media and I have a hard time seeing the media reward Rodgers' for his antics surrounding his vaccination status this season. While that might not be entirely fair, it's definitely a factor you need to handicap when voting for the winner of this award.
The rest of the field is littered with quarterbacks who have had solid years but I have a hard time seeing win the award over Brady for a variety of reasons. Some have dealt with injuries while others have been far more inconsistent or not nearly as good. Here's a list of other quarterbacks in the picture along with their current betting odds:
Kyler Murray +1000
Patrick Mahomes +1400
Matthew Stafford +1400
Justin Herbert +1600
Dak Prescott +2000
Josh Allen +2500
Lamar Jackson +5000
Outside of quarterbacks, the only other viable option is Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. Taylor sits at 20-to-1 to win the award. While Taylor has been sensational and he's put the Colts on his back in recent weeks, this award almost always goes to quarterbacks.
