It's tough to tell which team felt the most tension this week, the Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders.

And the Broncos won last week to improve to 2-1.

The Broncos are already having a weird season. The offseason had so much hype and promise in Colorado. Fans were excited after the Russell Wilson trade. Instead of an end to their quarterback troubles, they have a different level of quarterback concern. The Broncos offense has looked horrible. Wilson hasn't looked right. Coach Nathaniel Hackett has been under constant scrutiny just three games into his head-coaching career. You'd never know the Broncos are 2-1 listening to practically anyone talk about them. Playing in prime time last Sunday night shined a harsh light on an offense that looks broken.

The Raiders have a more traditional problem. They're the only 0-3 team in the NFL. It seems unfair. They're not close to being the worst team in football. They've lost three games by 13 points. If the Arizona Cardinals' final-play touchdown or two-point conversion doesn't work in Week 2, or the Raiders' two-point conversion late against the Tennessee Titans ties that game, maybe the Raiders are 2-1 and feeling good about themselves. That's how tight the margins are in the NFL.

The two AFC West foes play on Sunday. The Raiders are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM and the line has been moving their way. There's not much faith in the Broncos.

The Raiders are pretty much the epitome of the 2022 NFL. They're not a bad team. They're certainly not the worst team. But in a league in which every team is practically the same — 28 of 32 teams are between 1-2 and 2-1, and the Texans are 0-2-1 — the Raiders have lost three games that could have gone either way and now their entire season is in danger. They can't start 0-4 and expect to make the playoffs.

The urgency for the Raiders and the dysfunction of the Broncos is why I like Las Vegas to win and cover the 2.5 points in Week 4. One of these teams will be feeling even more heat next week. It would be a positive step if one of them feels good.

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 4 of the NFL season, with lines from BetMGM:

Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins

Just a terrible spot for the Dolphins, as I discussed in The Daily Sweat.

Vikings (-2.5) over Saints

It's funny how quickly things change. The Vikings were the Dolphins of two weeks ago, with everyone excited about how great they were. A loss to the Eagles and a near-miss to the Lions and they're less than a field-goal favorite over a struggling Saints team on a neutral site in London. Jameis Winston is banged up, though maybe the Saints would be better off if Andy Dalton played anyway. Wake up early, take the Vikings and be glad you don't have an investment in the struggling Saints offense.

Colts (-3.5) over Titans

I believed before the season that the Colts were the better team than the Titans. I still believe that, though by now that has more to do with the Titans' struggles. Tennessee did get an important win over the Raiders last week, but I still don't think they'll be very good this season. The Colts better win this one.

Bears (+3) over Giants

Can I interest you in a game between two 2-1 teams? No, didn't think so. This is our "only because I pick every game" selection of the week. I don't like either team. I am just keeping in mind that underdogs are covering at a healthy rate.

Bills (-3) over Ravens

It's hard to pass on taking a good team like the Ravens catching a field goal at home. The Bills are also coming off a rough, long game in the Miami heat. I just don't know how the Ravens secondary slows down the Bills offense. Even though I believe in the Bills, this isn't a pick I feel great about. Good game though.

Texans (+5) over Chargers

The Chargers looked awful last week against the Jaguars and a lot of those injuries aren't going away. Houston is a pest for opponents. They're not very good but they're going to cover plenty of spreads this season. They're already 3-0 against the spread even though they're 0-2-1 straight up. Don't forget they beat the Chargers last season, too. I'm just concerned the Chargers aren't snapping out of this funk anytime soon.

Lions (-4) over Seahawks

I don't get why this line isn't higher. Sure, the Lions have injury issues including Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift. But the Seahawks just lost at home to the Falcons. Since the first half of the Broncos game in Week 1 they've been awful. It's simple but I think Detroit is the far superior team.

Jets (+3) over Steelers

This season it has paid to take underdogs you don't quite believe in. I don't believe in the Jets. I'm not too excited about Zach Wilson playing this defense in his first game back. But the Steelers offense isn't good and maybe Wilson does spark the Jets offense a bit. Sometimes in the NFL, you have to take sides you don't like much.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Eagles

A few weeks ago, who would have thought this might be the most intriguing game of the day? It should be a good one. The Jaguars are legit. Philadelphia is too of course, but the spread is pretty high in the NFL's parity party. Jacksonville keeps this one close, and maybe more.

Commanders (+3) over Cowboys

Remember when we all thought the Cowboys were dead? Two weeks in the NFL is an eternity. Now we're on the Cooper Rush train and Dallas is laying a field goal against Washington (the line was 3.5 earlier in the week and hopefully gets there again). I don't necessarily hate the Commanders after last week's loss. I just think the Eagles are miles better. Dallas, with Rush, isn't miles better than Washington.

Browns (-1.5) over Falcons

Atlanta has been much better than I anticipated. Arthur Smith has this team playing competitive ball (though his "It's not fantasy football. We're just trying to win," comment about Kyle Pitts' lack of targets makes me wonder about him). If the Falcons win here, I'll probably stop picking against them every week.

Panthers (-1.5) over Cardinals

Too bad I already used my "only because i pick every game" card. Could have used it on this one. If you bet this game with any conviction, I applaud you. I have no idea what to make of either team, other than neither one is very good. The Panthers have an absolutely broken offense and the Cardinals are horrendous on defense. The Cardinals can move the ball well enough but can't score. This is one ugly game.

Patriots (+9.5) over Packers

The lookahead line on this game last week was Packers -6.5. It's 9.5 now and you can probably find this one at Patriots +10 later in the week if you are patient. Is Mac Jones' injury really worth 3.5 points on the spread? I don't think so. I'll trust the Patriots' defense to keep it close.

Buccaneers (+1) over Chiefs

I'll keep saying this: The Bucs defense isn't getting nearly enough attention. It has been great. The Chiefs offense was great in Week 1 and not so great since. Tampa Bay's offense has been inconsistent too, but at least it will have Mike Evans back. I'll trust the Bucs defense at home.

49ers (-1.5) over Rams

The 49ers offense hasn't been great, but the defense has been fantastic. We all saw that last Sunday night. The Rams looked better last week, but I'll take the more desperate team here. They're also at home, and Kyle Shanahan has done well against Sean McVay other than that pesky NFC championship game last season.

Last week: 9-7

Season to date: 25-23