Fantasy football is a game won week-to-week, not year-to-year. Players get hurt, coaches move around, and opportunities fluctuate. Many managers have short memories, which is why there’s huge value to be had in guys coming off of down outings. Last year Doug Martin, Brandon Marshall, and Tyler Eifert all proved to be winning bounce-back commodities. Below are my takes on this season’s best bets to boomerang.

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Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan struggled to pick up Kyle Shanahan’s offense last fall and winter. But he’s also a cerebral talent who should be able to grasp the system’s nuances with sixteen starts now under his belt. And he won’t have to worry about trying to fill the void that Roddy White, with whom he spent eight seasons developing a rapport, left when he fell off of a cliff in Week 2.

Plus, he has the distinct privilege of lobbing the ball at Julio Jones. The rest of the corps may not offer oodles of flashiness, but they are reliable. After all, Mohamed Sanu defined the word when he filled in for A.J. Green back in 2014, amassing 18 catches, 326 total yards, and a score for the three weeks Green was sidelined. And let’s not forget the pass-catching prowess of Devonta Freeman, who racked up the third most receiving yards among RBs in 2015, securing 73 balls via the air for 578 yards.

Admittedly, Ryan’s appeal lies wholly in his floor. He’s been a fantasy starter for five of the past six years. With Alex Mack holding down the center of the line, Ryan will have more time to operate. No, that doesn’t mean he’ll be a top-five commodity, but it’s more likely than not that he finishes in the QB10 – QB14 range, while also delivering consistent production on a week-to-week basis.

Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants
The Giants’ backfield was a disaster for much of 2015. Around Week 14, however, things started to click and Jennings emerged from the muck as the team’s lead RB. From Weeks 14 through 17, the vet averaged over 19 carries per game and produced over 100 combined yards in four consecutive outings. The third best RB in fantasy down the stretch, Jennings enters 2016 expected to carry the load for NY, seeing between 15 and 18 touches per contest.

At 31-years-old and with an extensive injury history, Jennings has some obvious red flags. Whether his body can hold up to a 16-game/250 touch season remains to be seen. More likely than not, he’ll break down at some point in the season, but health isn’t a guarantee for any back. Plus, rookie RB Paul Perkins is struggling with pass protection, which will keep Jennings ahead of the youngster for at least this year. Currently still available deep into the eighth rounds of fantasy drafts, the six-year vet is primed to have the best of his career. He’s a steal as an RB3 and could very well go out on a high note in real – and fake – football.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Burning fantasy owners who drafted him in the late third and early fourth rounds last summer by finishing outside of the top-fifty fantasy RBs, Gordon was one of last season’s biggest busts. Never once finding the end zone and averaging just 3.5 YPC, the former Badger was shut down two weeks before the end of the regular season with a knee injury. Reports surfaced in the spring that the first-round talent underwent microfracture surgery earlier in the year to correct the issue. As a result, his ADP has plummeted to the sixth round, placing the 23-year-old in RB3 territory.

Bargain shoppers, I invite you to rejoice at the market’s overcorrection. Despite all of the negatives coming out of 2015, there are plenty of positives to note heading into the fall. First and foremost, the Chargers’ apparent lack of concern – and in fact stalwart commitment – to the youngster is telling. The team did nothing to address their backfield during the NFL’s free agency period. During the draft they didn’t add another back, but selected Derek Watt (yes, J.J.’s brother), who was a fullback at Wisconsin and blocked for Gordon during the RB’s record-breaking run.

Speaking of blocking, the Bolts’ offensive line last year displayed as much strength as a gaggle of third graders playing a game of Red Rover. Ranked thirty-first in run blocking by Football Outsiders, San Diego’s line was decimated by injuries. As a result, the team’s five starters only played together for a handful of quarters, preventing the line form properly gelling, and the ground game from finding a rhythm. Despite this, Gordon still avoided an impressive 34 tackles (the ninth best at the position for that statistical category, per Pro Football Focus). Assuming the line returns to an even moderate level of health, and given Watt’s addition, Gordon should certainly improve on his first year numbers. He’s certainly looked good thus far into the preseason.

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Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Smith closed out his inaugural year at Levi Stadium posting an underwhelming 33-663-4 stat line. That’s a pretty steep drop-off from the 11 TDs he hauled in just a season earlier. While his game has never been particularly textured, his red zone prowess can’t be denied.

Despite catching fewer than 50 balls in 2014, Smith found the end zone eleven separate times and finished among the top twenty fantasy players at the position. Even if his skill set doesn’t greatly diversify Kelly’s offense, he’s still going draw a ton of targets… and a good amount of those figure to be in the red area of the field. After all, Anquan Boldin’s departure frees up over 100 looks.

Furthermore, Speedsters like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson have found success in Kelly’s system, being deployed primarily from the outside and taking the top off of defenses. They each saw well over 100 opportunities during their respective campaigns with Chip. As the team’s No. 1 wideout, Smith has a chance to mind upwards of 120 targets.

Given a career catch percentage rate of 53.6, the 27-year-old should double the number of grabs he recorded last year and flirt with an all-time high of 70 receptions. Factoring in his impressive yards per reception percentage (20.1 in 2015, the most of any WR that year) he could easily churn out 1,000 yards. Throw in 8-9 TDs and the former Raven returns to being a top-twenty fantasy asset.

Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Since leaving Pittsburgh, Wallace has had his share of struggles. Earning a reputation for quitting on his team and coming off of the worst statistical outing of his career (39-473-2), the 30-year-old speedster appears motivated to make a comeback in Baltimore. With his locker next to Joe Flacco’s the QB and WR have developed a solid rapport. Just last week Flacco extolled the wideout’s virtues calling Wallace “awesome” and predicting he’d be a “big hit” for the team.

Wallace has benefited from Steve Smith Sr. and Breshad Perriman spending much of camp on the PUP list, getting plenty of reps with the first-team offense and seeing lots of looks from his QB. While both Smith and Perriman recently resumed practice, their respective availabilities are still in question, which continues to bode well for Wallace’s target share.

Over the past two seasons 46 percent of the passing attempts in Marc Trestman’s up-tempo offense have been dedicated to the WR position. Projecting 630 passing attempts for Flacco and on a team desperate for a deep threat, Wallace figures to easily see upwards of 100 looks. That many opportunities would guarantee Wallace at least WR3 status in 12-team exercises (only two receivers – Donte Moncrief and Anquan Boldin – who racked up at least 100 targets fell outside of the top-thirty-six players at the position in 2015)

Not since 2012 has Wallace been tied to QB who can throw the deep ball. It’s also worth nothing that despite that fact, he managed 10 TDs in 2014 with Ryan Tannehill under center (and a defective coaching staff calling the plays). Back in the AFC North and with Smith keeping the corps chippy, Wallace’s upside is well-worth a late round grab in drafts.

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