NCAA tournament viewing guide: What to watch and what to skip on Thursday
Happy college basketball Christmas, folks.
For one glorious 36-hour stretch between 12 p.m. EST on Thursday and 12 a.m. EST on Saturday, CBS and Turner Sports will televise 32 opening-round NCAA tournament games. Here’s a look at which games on Thursday’s slate are must-see and which you can afford to click away from until the final two minutes.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SESSION
12:15 p.m. — No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Princeton (CBS)
12:40 p.m. — No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington (Tru TV)
1:30 p.m. — No. 4 Butler vs. No. 13 Winthrop (TNT)
2 p.m. — No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 South Dakota State (TBS)
Must-see: The contrast of styles between slow-paced, methodical Virginia and disruptive, up-tempo UNC Wilmington should make the Round of 64’s first game a fun watch. The Seahawks pushed Duke deep into the second half a year ago, but this could be a tougher matchup since Cavaliers point guard London Perrantes is so adept at dictating tempo.
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Must-skip: The highest-rated team on KenPom that South Dakota State beat all season is No. 143 South Dakota. There’s little chance of the Jackrabbits challenging top-seeded Gonzaga on Thursday in Salt Lake City, though sharpshooting big man Mike Daum could at least pose a matchup problem for Przemek Karnowski and the Zags.
Potential upsets: Of all the favorites in the early games on Thursday, Butler could be the most prone to an upset. The Bulldogs have an array of impressive victories this season, but they’ve also fallen at the hands of Indiana State, St. John’s and Georgetown. They’re especially susceptible on defense against teams that score at the rim.
Player to watch: Take the time to check out Notre Dame’s Bonzie Colson if you haven’t seen him yet. The long-armed 6-foot-5 forward averaged 17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds and earned all-ACC honors this season despite routinely facing opposing centers who are up to seven or eight inches taller than he is.
2:45 p.m. — No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Bucknell (CBS)
3:10 p.m. — No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State (Tru TV)
4 pm. — No. 5. Minnesota vs. 12 Middle Tennessee (TNT)
4:30 p.m. — No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt (TBS)
Must-see: The Middle Tennessee upset pick is so popular among college basketball fans that the 12th-seeded Blue Raiders actually enter Thursday’s game favored over fifth-seeded Minnesota. This seems like a potential rallying point for the Golden Gophers. Middle Tennessee boasts a formidable trio of experienced stars headlined by forward JaCorey Williams, however Minnesota counters with one of the nation’s best defenses.
Must-skip: Preparing for West Virginia’s swarming press is difficult for mid-majors who seldom see the Mountaineers’ level of length and athleticism in their respective leagues. It could be especially tough for Patriot League champion Bucknell, which opens the game 202nd nationally in turnovers per possession.
Potential upsets: In addition to the oft-discussed Middle Tennessee-Minnesota upset bid, East Tennessee State is also a threat to knock off fourth-seeded Florida. The Buccaneers boast plenty of guards who can attack the basket off the dribble, and while the Gators’ perimeter defense remains excellent, its last line of defense, John Egbunu, is lost for the season to a torn ACL.
Player to watch: Staying out of foul trouble is vital for Minnesota’s Reggie Lynch because he is the best shot-blocker in college basketball. He swats away 14.6 percent of opponents’ 2-point shots, a ridiculous number yet slightly lower than his percentages in his sophomore and freshman seasons when he led Division I in block percentage.
THURSDAY NIGHT SESSION
6:50 p.m. — No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier (TNT)
7:10 p.m. — No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s (CBS)
7:20 pm. — No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 VCU (TBS)
7:27 p.m. — No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Vermont (Tru-TV)
Must see: Having won 21 straight games entering the NCAA tournament, Vermont owns college basketball’s longest win streak. The Catamounts are good enough to advance beyond the first round, but Purdue just may not be the best matchup. The type of team that can hurt the Boilermakers is one that can spread them out and drive on them or make their bigs defend out to the perimeter. That’s not Vermont.
Must skip: KenPom gives Mount Saint Mary’s a two percent chance of upsetting reigning national champ Villanova. That’s way too generous.
Potential upsets: Maryland skidded into the NCAA tournament having dropped six of its final 10 games, perhaps some regression to the mean for a program that had won more than its share of close games this season. Xavier plunged toward the bubble without injured point guard Edmund Sumner, at one point losing six in a row from Feb. 11 to March 1. This is a great draw for both the Musketeers and Terps and a tough game to watch or predict for the rest of us.
Player to watch: Saint Mary’s returned all five starters from a 29-win team last season, yet its best player is one of last year’s reserves. Nobody has improved more across the country than the 6-foot-11 Jock Landale, who has shed weight and become the centerpiece of the Gaels’ methodical yet ultra-efficient attack.
9:20 p.m. — No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast (TNT)
9:40 p.m. — No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech (CBS)
9:50 pm. — No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 North Dakota (TBS)
9:57 p.m. — No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Nevada (Tru-TV)
Must see: Find Tru-TV on your channel guide if you haven’t already. Iowa State-Nevada should be one of the most watchable games of the first round. The Cyclones just won the Big 12 tournament behind the brilliance of senior point guard Monte Morris, but Mountain West regular season and tournament champ Nevada can counter with the three-headed monster of sharpshooter Marcus Marshall and forwards Jordan Caroline and Cameron Oliver.
Must skip: Arizona is peaking at the right time with Allonzo Trier having scored 19 or more in his past seven straight games and Lauri Markkanen emerging from a February outside shooting slump. That’s bad news for North Dakota, which looks to be little more than a speed bump in the Wildcats’ path to the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Potential upsets: Florida Gulf Coast isn’t the fast-paced, swashbuckling Dunk City team of a few years ago, but the Eagles could still challenge a Florida State team prone to letdowns. The Eagles beat UT Arlington already this season and put a scare into Michigan State and Baylor. If they’re able to slow tempo and score at the rim on the tall, athletic Seminoles, they’ll be a tough out.
Player to watch: With Wisconsin drawing undersized Virginia Tech and likely Villanova in its first two games, Happ will be the key to the Badgers’ hopes of advancing to the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season. He has to take advantage when he has smaller defenders on him and he has to be quick passing out of double teams when they come from anywhere on the floor.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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