NBA Fact or Fiction: Can the Thunder win it all without playoff scars?
Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether the trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Is Nuggets-Celtics the NBA Finals we deserve?]
This week's topic: The Thunder don't need playoff scars
There was once a recipe to the NBA title, one the Chicago Bulls followed from the 1980s into a dynasty.
They drafted Michael Jordan in 1984, made their first playoff appearance with him a year later, lost a pair of first-round series to the three-time champion Boston Celtics, reached the second round in 1988, where they lost the first of three straight series to the two-time champion Detroit Pistons, including back-to-back conference finals, and broke through in 1991, defeating the five-time champion Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals.
It was a slow build. They used to call them playoff scars, and most every champion developed them. It may be the player empowerment era, but title-winners still follow this recipe, unless they acquire LeBron James.
The Minneapolis Lakers won the 1948 NBL and 1949 BAA championships before winning four of five titles to launch the NBA into the 1950s. The league's next six first-time champions — the 1951 Rochester Royals, 1955 Syracuse Nationals, 1956 Philadelphia Warriors, 1957 Boston Celtics, 1958 St. Louis Hawks and 1967 Philadelphia 76ers — each lost to a championship team before beating another to become one.
(We are defining "first-time champions" here as a core's first title together. Bill Russell's Celtics won for the first time in 1957. The 1970s, 1980s and 2008 Celtics were different iterations, each with their own first.)
Likewise, the New York Knicks lost to the eventual champion three straight years before winning in 1970, following Russell's retirement from the Celtics. All but five of the NBA's 33 first-time champions have lost to another champion within four years of winning their own — the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers, the 1981 Celtics, the 2004 Pistons, the 2008 Celtics and the 2020 Lakers. Each had a very good explanation for this:
1977 Blazers: Bill Walton played more than 50 games for the first time in his career, and the ABA-NBA merger gifted his Blazers two starters, including All-NBA forward Maurice Lucas, in the 1976 offseason.
1981 Celtics: They drafted Larry Bird in 1979, reached the 1980 Eastern Conference finals, and then added both Robert Parish and Kevin McHale to their championship core in a single draft-eve trade.
2004 Pistons: They followed the traditional path to a championship but didn't lose to a former champ on their way up the ladder — from the 2000 first round to the 2002 second round and 2003 conference finals. (They also acquired four-time All-Star Rasheed Wallace at the February 2004 trade deadline.)
2008 Celtics: Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived in the summer of 2007.
2020 Lakers: LeBron James and Anthony Davis joined in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
If you don't have the playoff scars, you've either needed a once-in-a-lifetime merger or two new Hall of Famers to become a championship contender overnight. As far as I know, neither occurred this season.
The 1950s Celtics lost three straight series to the one-time champion Syracuse Nationals, added Russell, and then won a title in 1957, defeating the Nationals and the eventual champion St. Louis Hawks. Since then, first-time champions have played an average of 28 playoff games in the four years prior to winning.
Throw out the merger Blazers and bubble Lakers — the only two teams to go from four straight playoff absences to a championship — and the average number of playoff scars rises to 30. All but the '08 Celtics won at least one playoff series in the four-year window before breaking through, although Garnett, Allen and Paul Pierce had already combined for 121 playoff appearances, each making a trip to the conference finals.
The only team not mentioned already that appeared in fewer than 18 playoff games in the four years prior to winning its first title was the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks. They were an expansion team in 1968, drafted Kareem Abdul-Jabbar a year later, lost to the eventual champion Knicks in the 1970 Eastern Conference finals and defeated another eventual champion, the Lakers, en route to the title in 1971. All they needed was one of the three greatest players in NBA history to expedite the process, and even then they needed experience. See James' 2012 Miami Heat and 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, who required losses to the 2011 champion Dallas Mavericks and 2015 champion Golden State Warriors to develop necessary scars.
While player empowerment has recently forged instant contenders, most first-time champions still follow this recipe. In four seasons prior to winning in 2021, Giannis Antetokounmpo's Bucks played 38 playoff games, won three series and appeared in the 2019 Eastern Conference finals, losing to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors. Similarly, last year's Denver Nuggets played 48 playoff games and won four series from 2019-2022, losing to the eventual champion Lakers in the 2020 Western Conference finals. Scars.
There's a team at the top of the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder, who has not appeared in the playoffs since 2020, when they lost a first-round series to the Houston Rockets. Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort and Mike Muscala remain from that roster. Gordon Hayward's 16 playoff starts are the most of anyone in OKC's playoff rotation. SGA, Dort and Isaiah Joe are the only others with a lick of playoff experience.
The Thunder could win. SGA might be an all-timer. But a title run for OKC would be unprecedented. The same could be said of the Minnesota Timberwolves. And there's no shame in developing scars. Losing to the reigning champion Nuggets this season might just be the stepping stone they need to win in the future.
Determination: Fiction. The Thunder need playoff scars.
And, just for fun, your four-year playoff scar leaders on the stretch run to this year's festivities ...
(Playoff games in parentheses. Playoff series wins in bold.)
Miami Heat
2020: EC1, ECS, ECF, NBAF (21)
2021: EC1 (4)
2022: EC1, ECS, ECF (18)
2023: EC1, ECS, ECF, NBAF (23)
Total: 66 playoff games, eight playoff series wins
Boston Celtics
2020: EC1, ECS, ECF (17)
2021: EC1 (5)
2022: EC1, ECS, ECF, NBAF (24)
2023: EC1, ECS, ECF (20)
Total: 66 playoff games, seven playoff series wins
Denver Nuggets
2020: WC1, WCS, WCF (19)
2021: WC1, WCS (10)
2022: WC1 (5)
2023: WC1, WCS, WCF, NBAF (20)
Total: 54 playoff games, six playoff series wins
Milwaukee Bucks
2020: EC1, ECS (10)
2021: EC1, ECS, ECF, NBAF (23)
2022: EC1, ECS (12)
2023: EC1 (5)
Total: 50 playoff games, six playoff series wins
Phoenix Suns
2020: (0)
2021: WC1, WCS, WCF, NBAF (22)
2022: WC1, WCS (13)
2023: WC1, WCS (11)
Total: 46 playoff games, five playoff series wins
Los Angeles Lakers
2020: WC1, WCS, WCF, NBAF (21)
2021: WC1 (6)
2022: (0)
2023: WC1, WCS, WCF (16)
Total: 43 playoff games, six playoff series wins
Philadelphia 76ers
2020: EC1 (4)
2021: EC1, ECS (12)
2022: EC1, ECS (12)
2023: EC1, ECS (11)
Total: 39 playoff games, three playoff series wins
Los Angeles Clippers
2020: WC1, WCS (13)
2021: WC1, WCS, WCF (19)
2022: (0)
2023: WC1 (5)
Total: 37 playoff games, three playoff series wins
Golden State Warriors
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: WC1, WCS, WCF, NBAF (22)
2023: WC1, WCS (13)
Total: 35 playoff games, five playoff series wins
Dallas Mavericks
2020: WC1 (6)
2021: WC1 (7)
2022: WC1, WCS, WCF (18)
2023: (0)
Total: 31 playoff games, two playoff series wins
Atlanta Hawks
2020: (0)
2021: EC1, ECS, ECF (18)
2022: EC1 (5)
2023: EC1 (6)
Total: 29 playoff games, two playoff series wins
New York Knicks
2020: (0)
2021: EC1 (5)
2022: (0)
2023: EC1, ECS (11)
Total: 16 playoff games, one playoff series win
Minnesota Timberwolves
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: WC1 (6)
2023: WC1 (5)
Total: 11 playoff games
Sacramento Kings
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: (0)
2023: WC1 (7)
Total: Seven playoff games
Oklahoma City Thunder
2020: WC1 (7)
2021: (0)
2022: (0)
2023: (0)
Total: Seven playoff games
New Orleans Pelicans
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: WC1 (6)
2023: (0)
Total: Six playoff games
Cleveland Cavaliers
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: (0)
2023: EC1 (5)
Total: Five playoff games
Chicago Bulls
2020: (0)
2021: (0)
2022: EC1 (5)
2023: (0)
Total: Five playoff games
Orlando Magic
2020: EC1 (5)
2021: (0)
2022: (0)
2023: (0)
Total: Five playoff games
Indiana Pacers
2020: EC1 (4)
2021: (0)
2022: (0)
2023: (0)
Total: Four playoff games
