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NASCAR: Who will advance to Phoenix out of a strong third-round field?

Seven of the eight drivers still alive in the playoffs are multi-time winners while the eighth driver has the best average finish of any driver in 2024

nick bromberg
Senior writer
·4 min read
1

It’s hard to argue that anyone flukily made the semifinals of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

Sure, Joey Logano got a gift hours after last Sunday’s race at the Charlotte Roval. Logano was initially eliminated after the checkered flag flew, but got into the third round after Alex Bowman was relegated to a last-place finish when his car was disqualified in post-race inspection for being too light.

But Logano’s addition to the third round means that every multi-time winner in the Cup Series this season is still alive in the playoffs. Seven drivers have won at least two races this season; only Chase Elliott — the driver with the best average finish this season — is still racing for the title with just one win.

There’s a strong case to be made that this is the deepest semifinal field since NASCAR implemented its multi-round playoff format. Every driver can realistically think he has a chance at the championship. Here’s a look at the eight remaining drivers ahead of the first race of the third round on Sunday in Las Vegas.

  • 2 wins, 5 top fives, 10 top 10s

The even-year streak continues. Logano has finished fourth, second, first, third and first in even years since the first multi-round playoff year in 2014. He hasn’t advanced to the final round in any odd-numbered year. Should we pencil him into the final four right now?

Logano can be considered a favorite at Martinsville no matter how the first two races of the third round play out. We’re just not sure where he’ll be in the standings after the first two races. Logano has just two top-five finishes at intermediate tracks not-named Atlanta this season.

  • 1 win, 9 top fives, 16 top 10s

Elliott continues to avoid bad finishes. The August race in Daytona remains his only DNF of the season and he’s finished on the lead lap in 29 of 32 races so far. He’s the driver best positioned to take advantage of others’ misfortune simply because of his steadiness. A top five or two would go a long way to advancing, however. Elliott went 11 races without a top five before he was second at Bristol in September.

  • 3 wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s

Hamlin has just one top-five finish so far this postseason. That came at Bristol when he needed a very good run to avoid a first-round elimination. He’s done just enough to advance and the third round appears to set up well for him. We said the same thing a year ago before Hamlin crashed out at Homestead and finished 30th.

  • 2 wins, 9 top fives, 16 top 10s

The defending Cup Series champion keeps on keeping on. Blaney has two finishes of 38th or worse this postseason but has finished in the top 10 in the other four races. A bad finish in the third round is probably disastrous unless Blaney can get a win somewhere.

  • 3 wins, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s

We’re surprised Byron’s odds are as high as they are heading into the third round. All he did in the second round was finish second, third and third. He’s a serious title contender and should probably be considered closer to his teammate Kyle Larson in the pantheon of contenders than the No. 5 favorite. He won at Martinsville earlier this spring and should be a factor at both Las Vegas and Homestead.

  • 2 wins, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s

The regular-season champ avoided a disaster at the Roval. His team had to fix a broken toe link during the race after Reddick hopped a curb and hit Hamlin, and a late pit stop helped Reddick drive up to 11th by the end of race.

Crazily enough, that 11th-place finish was Reddick’s best since he was sixth at Atlanta in the second race of the playoffs. Reddick probably needs two top-10 finishes in the third round to advance.

  • 3 wins, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s

Bell has been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series since the Chicago street course race. Over the last 12 races, Bell has one DNF and nine top 10s. His lowest finish in the playoffs is a 14th at Watkins Glen. Bell is very good value at +800 to win Sunday’s race and clinch a spot in the final four for the fourth consecutive season.

  • 6 wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s

Larson’s odds to win Sunday’s race are ridiculously low. Larson is +275 to get the win, while Byron is the No. 2 favorite at +700. Larson won at Las Vegas in the spring, but don’t put a lot of stock into that. Teams make a lot of adjustments and discoveries over the course of a season. It’s a matter of when, not if Larson wins a second championship. And we’re confident that he’ll be among the four racing for the title at Phoenix.