If history holds, don’t expect the eventual 2024 Cup Series champ to fire out of the blocks on Week 1 of the 10-race playoffs.

First, a bit of the aforementioned history.

We’ve had 10 seasons of the current 16-team format over the 10-week stretch of playoffs. The scheduling of tracks within those 10 weeks has been altered here and there, but the numbers haven’t. So, it's not the worst sample size we’ve ever seen.

In those 10 years, the eventual champ has normally run well in Week 1 — seven top-10s overall, with the worst finishes being 19th and 20th. But just once has the champ opened the playoffs in Victory Lane.

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That was Martin Truex Jr. in 2017, when he began the postseason by winning at Chicagoland (Chicagoland, located in Joliet, is a track not only booted from the playoffs, but from the schedule altogether).

Take a look at the past 10 years of champions and their playoff openers, then let’s discuss how any potential trends found here are totally out the window this year.

2014: Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing)

First playoff race: Chicagoland Speedway

Started: Fourth

Finished: Fifth

Race winner: Brad Keselowski.

2015: Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing)

First playoff race: Chicagoland Speedway

Started: Seventh

Finished: Ninth

Race winner: Denny Hamlin

2016: Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

First playoff race: Chicagoland Speedway

Started: Eighth

Finished: 12th

Race winner: Martin Truex Jr.

2017: Martin Truex Jr. (No. 78 Totoyta, Furniture Row Racing)

First playoff race: Chicagoland Speedway

Started: Third

Finished: First

2018: Joey Logano (No. 22 Ford, Team Penske)

First playoff race: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Started: Second

Finished: Fourth

Race winner: Brad Keselowski

2019: Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing)

First playoff race: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Started: 20th

Finished: 19th

Race winner: Martin Truex Jr.

2020: Chase Elliott (No. 9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

First playoff race: Darlington Raceway

Started: First

Finished: 20th

Race winner: Kevin Harvick

2021: Kyle Larson (No. 5 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

First playoff race: Darlington Raceway

Started: Sixth

Finished: Second

Race winner: Denny Hamlin

2022: Joey Logano (No. 22 Ford, Team Penske)

First playoff race: Darlington Raceway

Started: First

Finished: Fourth

Race winner: Erik Jones

2023: Ryan Blaney (No. 12 Ford, Team Penske)

First playoff race: Darlington Raceway

Started: Fourth

Finished: Ninth

Race winner: Kyle Larson

This year may get an asterisk

Here’s where that two-week break for the Olympics comes back into play. That shutdown forced some scheduling maneuvers. Daytona’s summer race took place on Week 25 and Darlington slotted in at Week 26, moving earlier to the final race of the regular season in order to keep its Labor Day Weekend spot.

So this year, instead of Darlington starting the playoffs, it’s Atlanta in a one-off. Next year’s recently released schedule has Darlington sliding back to the playoff opener.

While Darlington is rarely a ho-hum affair, Atlanta should bring theatrics by design.

Starting two years ago, NASCAR reduced the speeds at Atlanta Motor Speedway like it’s done at Daytona and Talladega, making Atlanta the third home to “plate-races.” And you know what that means. The winner can come from anywhere in the field, and the most favored of favorites can end up on the hook.

A couple of the five Atlanta plate-races have been very clean, but three have included highly populated crashes, including this past spring when 16 cars (SIXTEEN!) got all or part of a Lap 2 wreck.

Daniel Suarez won Atlanta by a fender in late February, so this might be his best chance to win and gain automatic entry into the Round of 12. Same can be said for Harrison Burton and Austin Cindric, though Cindric, a natural road-racer, will also look forward to next week at Watkins Glen.

Meanwhile, the biggest championship hopefuls — and who knows, maybe even the eventual champ — might end up in Atlanta’s version of the Big One and find himself parked behind the wall. Talladega used to be the only true "wild car" in the playoffs. This year, there are two.

— Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR at Atlanta as Playoffs start. Let's check past champion results