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NASCAR in Nash Vegas: Betting advice for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

New England last week. Chicago next week.

In between, it’s Old Home Week for NASCAR’s road warriors, who come back home for a little Southern culture to cleanse the palate.

They’re not exactly in Nashville — just a bit east of downtown, actually — but close enough to Lower Broadway to hear the deafening speakers blaring from yet another rooftop bar attached to the name of some jeans-clad Flavor of the Month.

Not sure if they could drown out the noise of some three dozen rip-roaring stock cars, but they’ll sure as hell try.

Where were we? Ah, the betting window. Time to set out the tip jar, strum through some prime Ernest Tubb, and see if we can collect enough to take advantage of all this quality advice below.

At nearly any time of day or night, Lower Broadway in Downtown Nashville is a loud and crowded place.
At nearly any time of day or night, Lower Broadway in Downtown Nashville is a loud and crowded place.

Odds for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

(Odds from Hard Rock Bets)

  • +375: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin

  • +700: Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell

  • +750: Chase Elliott

  • +900: William Byron

  • +1000: Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney

  • +1750: Joey Logano

  • +2000: Ty Gibbs

  • +2500: Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski

  • +3000: Kyle Busch

  • +4000: Alex Bowman

  • +5000: Josh Berry, Bubba Wallace

  • +6000: Corey Heim

  • +7500: Noah Gragson, Daniel Suarez

  • +10000: Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe

  • +15000: AJ Allmendinger

  • +25000: Carson Hocevar, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Todd Gilliland

  • +50000: John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Ryan Preece, Justin Haley

  • +100000: Riley Herbst, Zane Smith, Harrison Burton

  • +250000: Chad Finchum, Daniel Hemric

Best Bet for Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

Ryan: Just for laughs, let's do one we've never done in this space: How about we look at the car number of the race winner and we go with odd. In that scenario, we get Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr. among others. With Chevy's run of success in Nashville, Hamlin's season-long speed and Truex Jr.'s urgency for a win in his final season, I'll ride with those guys.

Apr 27, 2024; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Josh Berry looks on during practice and qualifying for the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 27, 2024; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Josh Berry looks on during practice and qualifying for the Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Ken: Josh Berry is +1000 to be the highest finishing Ford driver Sunday at Nashville. Fifteen Ford drivers dot the starting lineup, but it’s not exactly a Murderers Row. Ryan Blaney is +160 and that seems ridiculously low for a guy who steps on a rake way too many weeks. More on Berry down below, by the way.

How about a high-five?

Ryan: I'm tired of pretending the speed isn't real and I can't ignore those odd: Justin Haley is +6000 here. That's bet $100, win $6,100. He had that kind of speed at New Hampshire last week before being swept up late in a crash on wet pavement.

Ken: Josh Berry is at +750 for a top-five finish. Two things here: 1. Rumors have him going to the Wood Brothers’ No. 21 Ford next season after his current team, Stewart-Haas, pulls the shades. Might be true, but it might not, which means he’s racing for his future these days. 2. Four of the past six weeks, his car didn’t break and he didn’t wreck, and in those four races he’s finished in the top 10, twice finishing third. A month ago, that +750 would’ve been comfortably higher, but I’m still comfy with it for him to finish fifth or better.

Would you fade the defending Cup champ at Nashville?

Ryan: I'm with you on Blaney and I'm going to add Logano for good measure. The Fords have been mighty quick on short, flat tracks. This doesn't qualify. Look for the Hendrick and Gibbs stables along with a Trackhouse or 23XI entry or two, to duke it out for the win.

Ken: Blaney, Blaney, Blaney. He’s been mediocre, at best, the past few years at intermediate tracks around the size of Nashville. And speaking of Nashville, in three starts there, his third-place run in 2022 was sandwiched by finishes of 37th and 36th.

For the win at Nashville

Ryan: Larson is probably the pick, but for a little better odds, I'm going to go with Elliott at +750. Like Larson, Elliott also has a win here and while he may not quite have Larson's speed on a week-to-week base, he's awfully close. Like one, minor adjustment away.

LEBANON, TENNESSEE - JUNE 25: Ross Chastain, driver of the #1 Worldwide Express Chevrolet, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2023 in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
LEBANON, TENNESSEE - JUNE 25: Ross Chastain, driver of the #1 Worldwide Express Chevrolet, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2023 in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)

Ken: A bit of indirect recency-bias kicks in and I’m taking Ross the Boss at that +700. Remember last week when the “Horses for Courses” obvious pick was Christopher Bell, who became more of an obvious pick after he won the Xfinity race Saturday? Guess what, he won the Sunday race, too. In three starts at Nashville, Chastain has finished second, fifth and first.

NASCAR DFS lineup for Nashville

  • Kyle Larson ($10,500): When you can fit Larson into the budget, there really is no wrong week to do so.

  • Chase Elliott ($9,700): It's coming. He's about another tenth of a second per lap from ripping off a couple more wins. It may just start Sunday.

  • William Byron ($9,500): This, as Ken pointed out in a podcast earlier this week, is the perfect time for a Byron win. Right when you've almost forgotten about him ...

  • Daniel Suarez ($7,500): Suarez's teammate will get most of the hype leading into Sunday but he's fifth among active drivers in average finish here (11.3).

  • Erik Jones ($6,600): If not now, then when for Jones who has finished eighth and 11th in two races at Nashville in the Gen-7 car.

  • Carson Hocevar ($6,100): Basically an automatic top 20 at the bottom of your lineup. Feel free to plug him in until further notice.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, best bets, predictions, picks, DFS lineup for Nashville