When NASCAR’s two-week Olympics break ends and the engines fire again next weekend at Richmond, four races will remain in the Cup Series’ regular season — with 22 checkered flags having flown so far in 2024.

Twelve racers have clinched playoff berths by winning a race this season. That means four open spots remain, and they will be earned by either winning a race or cracking the top 16 in points at the end of the regular season Sept. 1.

NASCAR has a full decade of 16-driver playoffs in its mirror, with the current system — except for a tweak or two — in place since 2014. In some instances, given a decade of data, you can look at the past and have an idea of how the near future might play out.

Not with this.

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Some years, the eventual champion was looking very much like a champion after 22 weeks. But sometimes, not so much. Let’s take a look at the current situation and a look back at the 10 years of this system to see how the eventual champ was looking after 22 races and again after 26.

Current top 16 in points: 1. Kyle Larson, 2. Chase Elliott, 3. Tyler Reddick, 4. Denny Hamlin, 5. Ryan Blaney, 6. William Byron, 7. Martin Truex Jr., 8. Christopher Bell, 9. Brad Keselowski, 10. Alex Bowman, 11. Ty Gibbs, 12. Chris Buescher, 13. Ross Chastain, 14. Bubba Wallace, 15. Joey Logano, 16. Chase Briscoe.

* Playoff bound: Daniel Suarez (17th) and Austin Cindric (19th) are currently outside the top 16 but have clinched playoff berths by each winning a race this season.

2014: Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing)

After Race 22: Eighth

After Race 26: Sixth

Playoffs: He opened the Round of 8 with a 33rd-place finish at Martinsville, but saved his playoff life two weeks later with a win, then captured his lone Cup championship with a win in the final race at Homestead.

2015: Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing)

After Race 22: 30th

After Race 26: First

Playoffs: That’s no typo. He was 30th in points due to missing the first 11 races with a broken leg. He won four times in a five-week span that summer, then was winless but relatively consistent through nine weeks of the playoffs before winning the finale at Homestead.

2016: Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

After Race 22: 10th

After Race 26: Fourth

Playoffs: He won the opening race in the Round of 12 and Round of 8 to keep moving forward after short-lived playoff appearances the previous two years. He led just three laps at the Homestead championship race, but they were the final three.

2017: Martin Truex Jr. (No. 78 Toyota, Furniture Row Racing)

After Race 22: First

After Race 26: First

Playoffs: He won at the season’s midway point — Race 18 at Kentucky — to move into first place in the standings and never left. He won three playoff races, including the final, and finished outside the top five just once, when he crashed at Talladega.

2018: Joey Logano (No. 22 Ford, Team Penske)

After Race 22: Sixth

After Race 26: Sixth

Playoffs: His win in the first race of the Round of 8, at Martinsville, was just his second of the season. His third came in the final race, at Homestead, by nearly two seconds over Truex.

2019: Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing)

After Race 22: First

After Race 26: First

Playoffs: Won four of the season’s first 14 races and didn’t win again until the championship race, where he finished 4½ seconds ahead of Truex at Homestead.

2020: Chase Elliott (No. 9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

After Race 22: Fifth

After Race 26: Fifth

Playoffs: He secured his spot in the championship race with a dominant win at Martinsville the previous week (he won by 6½ seconds), then made it look easy by leading the final 43 laps and winning by nearly three seconds at the new home of the final race, Phoenix.

2021: Kyle Larson (No. 5 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports)

After Race 22: Second

After Race 26: First

Playoffs: In his first season with Hendrick, he won three straight in late spring, got to the playoffs atop the standings and didn’t let up. He won four of the final five races. Truex followed him through the checkers at Phoenix for his third championship runner-up in four seasons since his 2017 title.

2022: Joey Logano (No. 22 Ford, Team Penske)

After Race 22: Seventh

After Race 26: Second

Playoffs: He had four straight finishes of 20th or worse in the summer, and even had a couple of clunkers in the playoffs. But he opened the Round of 8 with a win at Las Vegas, then led the final 30 laps at Phoenix for his second Cup championship.

2023: Ryan Blaney (No. 12 Ford, Team Penske)

After Race 22: Ninth

After Race 26: 11th

Playoffs: He barely squeezed into the Round of 12, but won at Talladega to make the Round of 8 and at Martinsville to make the final, where he became the first driver in the 16-team playoff era to win the championship without winning the final race. He was second to Ross Chastain at Phoenix, but kept fellow championship hopefuls Kyle Larson and William Byron behind him.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR champs in 16-team era, from Kevin Harvick to Ryan Blaney