NASCAR Atlanta odds: Why the odds board looks so similar to the Daytona 500 numbers
No sighs of relief this week.
It used to be, NASCAR would leave Daytona and “normal” racing would begin the following weekend. But starting in 2022, following a track reconfiguration, Atlanta Motor Speedway was deemed too fast and, thus, joined Daytona and Talladega as “plate-race” tracks.
And starting this year, Atlanta follows the Daytona 500.
That’s right, more pack-racin’ this weekend, which explains why — again — no one is better than 10-to-1 odds to win Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400.
NASCAR QNA Daytona 500 finishes under yellow; Ryan Blaney gets roughed up
Too many variables out of everyone’s control, so even your usual upper-rung favorites will pay well if they’re first to the checkers.
Using Florida’s recently approved betting app — Hard Rock Bet — for the odds (as of Thursday), let’s do a little grid walk …
NASCAR favorites for Atlanta
Joey Logano +1000, Denny Hamlin +1100, Ryan Blaney +1200, Christopher Bell +1200, William Byron +1200, Chase Elliott +1200, Brad Keselowski +1300
The 1980 Atlanta 500 at @ATLMotorSpdwy:
• Dale Earnhardt captured his second career victory.
• @RustyWallace made his NASCAR Cup Series debut and finished second.
• Al Michaels called the race from the broadcast booth. pic.twitter.com/49JuwqcFJm— NASCAR Classics (@NASCARClassics) February 21, 2024
That’s right, no Kyle Larson (+1400) among the first seven faves. He is, however, next on the odds board, just ahead of Kyle Busch (+1500).
Yes, the odds makers have access to the stat books, and the stat books tell them Kyle Larson can’t be trusted to finish a plate-race, much less win one.
Some from the next tier
Bubba Wallace +2000, Ross Chastain +2000, Chris Buescher +2500, Michael McDowell +4000. Corey LaJoie +4000
Sure, Bubba is a good plate-racer, but he’s much better at Daytona/Talladega than he’s been at Atlanta these past two years.
I like Chris Buescher in an indirect sort of way, and will explain below. McDowell and LaJoie are both worth a smidge at +4000. One of them, or both, at some point Sunday will make you wonder if you should’ve looked their way.
Bargain hunting
Noah Gragson +6000, John Hunter Nemechek +6000, Chase Briscoe +6000
800 miles later…💨
Another P7 to finish off Daytona.#teamtoyota pic.twitter.com/S4WkUfgixc— John Hunter Nemechek (@JHNemechek) February 20, 2024
Did you know Nemechek finished seventh in both Daytona races last Sunday night? I'd overlooked that before seeing the above tweet.
For what it’s worth, all three of the above finished top 10 in the 500. And if you’re top 10 at a plate-race, you’re sniffing the lead. And if you're sniffing the lead near the end, you're sniffing champagne.
How about a top 5?
Chase Briscoe +500, Noah Gragson +600, John Hunter Nemechek +600
Odd(s) but true. These three have same odds on winning, but Briscoe gets more love for a top 5. And frankly, if forced to bet this category, I’d go with Briscoe over the other two.
Team bets
Hendrick +300, Gibbs +300, RFK +850, Childress +1200, Stewart-Haas +1600
Remember the “indirect” comment about Buescher? Well, here’s why. If you wager on an RFK win, you’re banking on Buescher and Brad Keselowski. At most races, the individual favorite is usually lower than +850, and here you get a two-for-one at +850.
And either of them can win Sunday.
Pick a number
Odd -125, Even -105
Check the entry list to see how many quality drivers are in odd-numbered cars as opposed to even. Or better yet, just flip a coin on this one.
Top Toyota finisher
Denny Hamlin +260, Ty Gibbs +800
Hamlin is the Toyota favorite, while only Nemechek is below Gibbs on the Toyota board, with the others between those extremes. I don’t hate a Gibbs pick here, but then again, I've been predicting a Ty Gibbs breakout for nearly a year now.
— Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, Atlanta: Joey Logano? Denny Hamlin? Did we leave Daytona?