Will OKC Thunder be team to beat in Western Conference next season? Handicapping NBA odds
Sam Presti could’ve sat on his hands this summer and the Thunder, through internal development alone, would have entered next season among the Western Conference favorites.
But after swapping Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, the Thunder has emerged as the favorite in the West.
They grow up fast, don’t they?
A group that just made the playoffs for the first time — the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history — is the perceived top dog in the rugged West.
A Big Three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is now flanked by two of the best role players in the NBA in Caruso, a 3-and-D specialist, and Hartenstein, who’s size, strength and rebounding all address Thunder needs.
If the Thunder plugs Caruso into Giddey’s spot, the starting lineup looks like this: SGA, Lu Dort, Caruso, Jalen Williams, Holmgren.
Hartenstein will likely come off the bench along with Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins. That’s already nine guys. And then you have Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams.
There isn’t a hole in the Thunder’s roster. At least not one we can see now in early July.
Let’s run through each team’s odds to represent the West next season in the NBA Finals.
We’ll play a game of too high, too low or just right. All odds are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: +370
Just right. A $100 bet on the Thunder to win the West would win you $370. By comparison, the Celtics are +145 to win the East.
No Western Conference team had a better offseason than the Thunder. The odds reflect that.
Denver Nuggets: +420
Just right. And apt odds for the Mile High City.
The Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green after winning the 2023 championship. And now they’ve lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a terrific defender and 3-point shooter. Caldwell-Pope signed in Orlando. Denver still has the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic, but this is back-to-back offseasons in which the Nuggets have gotten worse.
Minnesota Timberwolves: +440
Just right. The Timberwolves beat the defending champs. Then they got pushed around by the Mavericks. Add in the ownership mess, Karl-Anthony Towns’ rollercoaster career and historic Timberwolves trauma … too many red flags for me.
The odds are fine. Just not a bet I’d make.
Dallas Mavericks: +490
Too low. Look, I’m not picking the Mavericks to repeat as Western Conference champs, but this is good value as the fourth team on the board. I’d put them ahead of the Timberwolves in the Western Conference hierarchy.
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Phoenix Suns: +1300
Too high. Would anyone be shocked if Kevin Durant asked out or if Phoenix blew things up by trading Devin Booker? It probably won’t happen. Even then, the rest of the roster is a mess. Phoenix isn’t worth a longshot pick.
Los Angeles Lakers: +1500
Too high. Vegas is surely factoring in a Lakers’ tax. LeBron James and Anthony Davis had All-NBA seasons and the Lakers failed to make it out of the first round.
Golden State Warriors: +1600
Too high. It’s the end of an era for Golden State, but from a basketball perspective, replacing Klay Thompson with Buddy Hield is a wash. If Golden State trades for Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen, it’s likely the Warriors would leapfrog the Suns and Lakers.
Memphis Grizzlies: +2000
Too high. The Grizzlies have a ton of ground to make up even with Ja Morant coming back.
New Orleans Pelicans: +2000
Too low. Why are the Pelicans and Grizzlies getting the same odds? I like what New Orleans did this offseason in adding Dejounte Murray. We’ll see if Brandon Ingram is on the roster next season. More than anything, this is a bet worth making if you’re the ultimate optimist when it comes to the health of Zion Williamson.
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Los Angeles Clippers: +3000
Just right. At least Clippers fans have a new arena to look forward to.
Sacramento Kings: +3500
Too low. Maybe my favorite bet from a pure value perspective. What if Keegan Murray becomes an All-Star in Year 3? Then you have a legitimate Big Three in Murray, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The Kings also brought Malik Monk back.
Houston Rockets: +7500
Too low. The Rockets aren’t going to win the West, but they have an exciting young core and all sorts of trade chips to make things interesting.
San Antonio Spurs: +10000
Just right. Victor Wembanyama could make an All-NBA team in Year 2. He might be a consensus top-10 player in the NBA by the end of next season. Maybe sooner. He’s scary good.
Utah Jazz: +50000
Just right. What are we doing here?
Portland Trail Blazers: +50000
Too high. Seek help.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Will OKC Thunder be team to beat in Western Conference next season?
