The NBA Rookie of the Year race has a runaway leader through the first two months of the season. Just as we all predicted, right?

Sort of, only we got the wrong guy.

It’s Chet Holmgren, not Victor Wembanyama, who’s lapping the field of freshmen as the calendar flips to 2024.

Holmgren has been the second-best player — crazy isn’t it? — on a Thunder squad (20-9) that sits third in the West and leads the conference in point differential (+7.7) after a 129-120 win Wednesday night against the Knicks.

Meanwhile, Wembanyama’s Spurs are 4-25 with an NBA-worst point differential (-12.3). Yes, worse than the historically bad Pistons (-11.5).

That’s not really the point, though. Rookie of the Year winners often come from lousy teams.

Wembanyama’s stock has not dropped one iota. As a 19-year-old, the 7-foot-4 Frenchman leads the NBA with 3.0 blocks per game. And remember, he’s a year and a half younger than Holmgren, didn’t have a redshirt season like Holmgren, and is adjusting to a new country and culture unlike Holmgren, who grew up in Minneapolis.

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But while Wembanyama’s best-player-in-the-galaxy ceiling has held steady, Holmgren has exceeded even the most bullish expectations. As a rookie who missed all of last season with a foot injury, Holmgren has immediately impacted winning outcomes for an upstart Thunder team.

With Holmgren on the floor, the Thunder opened play Wednesday outscoring teams by 9.9 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off the floor, the Thunder is only outscoring teams by 4.9 points per 100 possessions.

Chet Holmgren: 28 games, 29.9 minutes, 17.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.7 blocks, 53 FG%, 37.6 3FG%, 84.5 FT%

Victor Wembanyama: 26 games, 30.0 minutes, 18.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 3.0 blocks, 43.3 FG%, 27.8 3FG%, 77.1 FT%

I too would love to observe another universe in which Wembanyama and Holmgren switch places, but barring a scientific advancement we can only wonder.

Might Wembanyma be as good as Holmgren this season if Wembanyama was playing next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams rather than Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell? Would Holmgren’s 53% field goal and 38% 3-point percentages plummet to Wembanyama levels (43% and 28%) if Holmgren was playing for the hapless Spurs?

Either way, the counting stats of Holmgren and Wembanyama are close enough that Holmgren’s edges in efficiency and effect on winning give him the clear Rookie of the Year edge.

Vegas agrees.

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Holmgren is the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favorite, according to FanDuel, at -195. Wembanyama has the second-best odds at +135. You would need to wager $195 on Holmgren to win $100. A $100 bet on Wembanyama would win $135.

Only four other rookies are even on FanDuel’s board: Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+4500), Detroit’s Ausar Thompson (+12000), Charlotte’s Brandon Miller (+20000) and Portland’s Scoot Henderson (+25000).

Of all the NBA’s individual awards, Holmgren’s lead in the Rookie of the Year race is the second largest only behind Tyrese Maxey’s campaign for Most Improved Player. The Philadelphia guard is -280 to win the award, followed by a huge gap. Houston’s Alperen Sengun has the second-best odds at +650.

Holmgren would be the Thunder’s first Rookie of the Year winner, and it would come off the heels of Jalen Williams’ second-place finish to Paolo Banchero a season ago.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Chet Holmgren leads Victor Wembanyama in NBA Rookie of the Year race