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Monday Measure: The last year of the 4-team playoff features its most contenders ever

Eight Power Five teams have one loss or fewer after the regular season. That's a playoff-era record

nick bromberg
Senior writer
·3 min read
117

If you think the race for the College Football Playoff feels crowded, your intuition is correct.

Eight Power Five teams enter conference championship weekend with one loss or fewer. Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State are all 12-0. Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Alabama are 11-1. It’s the first time in the history of the four-team playoff that eight Power Five teams made it through a full regular season with one loss or fewer.

The previous record came in 2019 when seven teams finished the regular season at 11-1 or better. Clemson, LSU and Ohio State were all undefeated entering their conference championship games while four teams stood at 11-1.

A year ago, just five Power Five teams had fewer than two losses. Georgia, Michigan and TCU were undefeated, while Ohio State and USC were 11-1. The playoff field sorted itself out over conference championship weekend as Georgia and Michigan won, TCU lost a close game to Kansas State and USC was blown out by Utah.

ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 04: Georgia Bulldogs Head Coach Kirby Smart and Alabama Crimson Tide Head Coach Nick Saban before the SEC Championship game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs on December 04, 2021, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Georgia and Alabama will meet Saturday for the SEC title. If Alabama wins, will the Tide make the College Football Playoff? (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This year, the selection process won’t be that easy. There’s a plausible scenario where Michigan ends the season as the only undefeated team, while seven teams lurk for the three remaining playoff spots at either 12-1 or 11-1. Or even more likely, there could be two or three undefeated teams remaining and a group of three or more teams with one loss.

The parity at the top in the final year of the four-team playoff began in Week 1. All eight of the teams at 11-1 or better were ranked in the top 15 of the preseason AP Top 25. There hasn’t been a team vaulting from out of nowhere like TCU a season ago.

There also haven’t been that many big upsets. Of the 20 losses suffered by teams in the top 15 of the CFP rankings, just five of them have come to teams outside the latest edition of playoff rankings.

  • No. 6 Oregon: lost to No. 4 Washington

  • No. 7 Texas: lost to No. 12 Oklahoma

  • No. 8 Alabama: lost to No. 7 Texas

  • No. 9 Missouri: lost to No. 1 Georgia and No. 13 LSU

  • No. 10 Louisville: lost to Pitt and Kentucky

  • No. 11 Penn State: lost to No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan

  • No. 12 Ole Miss: lost to No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama

  • No. 13 LSU: lost to No. No. 5 Florida State, No. 8 Alabama and No. 12 Ole Miss

  • No. 14 Oklahoma: lost to No. 20 Oklahoma State and Kansas

  • No. 15 Arizona: lost to No. 4 Washington, USC and Mississippi State

Looking at those results can lead you to believe that the 2023 season has both been predictable and had a lot of parity. At least at the top, anyway. After many of the big rivalry games in Week 13 resulted in close wins for some of the teams at the top of the rankings, perhaps chaos will strike on conference championship weekend.

And depending on how it does, the committee’s job could be incredibly easy. Or exceptionally difficult.