STARKVILLE — Outside of "College World Series," there are few three-word combinations as valuable to Mississippi State baseball as these: "The Starkville Regional."

For coach Chris Lemonis, hosting NCAA tournament games at Dudy Noble Field is among the top priorities every year. A national title is the main goal, and that was accomplished in 2021. But the likelihood of getting there, Lemonis admits, is increased when playing home games.

Entering this season, Mississippi State wasn't looked at as a hosting candidate. The Bulldogs (34-18, 15-12 SEC) were picked to finish toward the bottom of the SEC across various polls, making even a trip to the SEC tournament look unlikely.

Things haven't panned out as the polls expected. Mississippi State opens a series with Missouri (22-30, 8-19) on Thursday (6 p.m., SEC Network+). It's the final three-game set before the conference tournament in Hoover, Alabama, which is followed by the NCAA tournament a week later.

Mississippi State is on the bubble of hosting a regional. Will the Bulldogs be on the right side of it when the field of 64 is selected? Here's what the latest projections say.

How does hosting in the NCAA tournament work for baseball?

The top 16 seeds in college baseball get to host regionals. Those selected would host three opposing schools, with the lone survivor of the double-elimination pod advancing to super regionals.

The eight highest-seeded teams to advance beyond a regional have the opportunity to host a super regional — a best-of-three series in which the winner advances to the College World Series in Omaha, Nebraska.

Baseball America's projection for Mississippi State

As has been the case throughout the season, Baseball America does not project Mississippi State to host an NCAA regional. The Bulldogs are instead projected as a No. 2 seed playing in the Stillwater Regional, where No. 15 overall seed Oklahoma State would be the host.

The No. 3 seed in the regional is Oregon, while the No. 4 seed is Lamar.

D1Baseball's projection for Mississippi State

For the second straight week, D1Baseball projects Mississippi State to host the Starkville Regional. MSU is projected as the No. 14 team overall.

Coming to Starkville would be No. 2 seed Louisiana, No. 3 seed Georgia Tech and No. 4 seed Lamar.

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Mississippi State baseball 2024 schedule

• May 16-18: vs. Missouri

• May 21-26: SEC tournament (Hoover, Ala.)

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State baseball NCAA tournament predictions: Hosting bubble