Miami Dolphins 2023 NFL Preview: A fun roster, but the Tua Tagovailoa concerns loom
Coming off the field after a Week 2 win last season, Tua Tagovailoa had to feel great.
He led the Miami Dolphins to a comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens after his team trailed by 21 points. He threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns. The previous few years hadn't been easy. He suffered a devastating hip injury that ended his college career at Alabama. He was up and down his first two seasons in Miami. It wasn't fair to decide what Tagovailoa was as a quarterback after 21 starts, but last offseason the names most closely associated with Tagovailoa were Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, the two other top quarterbacks in his draft class who were instant stars. Tagovailoa lagged way behind them. He was written off by many.
That day at Baltimore, though, Tagovailoa seemed to arrive as a star. He was just 24, with his whole career in front of him. The hip injury and the criticism didn't matter anymore.
“I think it was a moment he’ll never forget and can use it moving forward,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said after the game, via the Associated Press. “I couldn’t be happier for him. His teammates learned a lot about him, and I think he learned something about himself.”
Through three games Tagovailoa was brilliant. The Dolphins, who had to have moments of regret over passing on Herbert in the draft, were 3-0. Then came the first concussion.
Maybe it was the second concussion. In Week 3, Tagovailoa stumbled and almost collapsed after a hit, though he wasn't officially diagnosed with a concussion. There was no question about the one at Cincinnati.
Tagovailoa was spun around and slammed to the turf, and a national audience saw his hands go into the fencing response. It was frightening. He was carted off and taken to the hospital. Tagovailoa came back after two games off and played well, but then suffered another concussion, likely on a hit late in the second quarter, against the Green Bay Packers on Dec. 25. It wasn't spotted and Tagovailoa finished the game. That was it for his season.
It's impossible to talk about the Dolphins' season, or seasons to come, without worrying about Tagovailoa moving forward. Tagovailoa had just finished a true breakout third season, and as he turned 25, he considered retirement.
“I considered it for a time, having sat down with my family, having sat down with my wife and having those kind of conversations, but it will be hard for me to walk away from this game with how old I am,” Tagovailoa said this offseason, via CNN.
Tagovailoa said he did jiu-jitsu training in the offseason to learn to fall in a way that could prevent him hitting his head and hopefully that helps. But everyone who understands football knows that you can't eliminate the risk of concussions, especially at quarterback.
The Dolphins have to be worried, too, about Tagovailoa but also their football team. A decision on a long-term extension for Tagovailoa is looming. He looked like a franchise quarterback when he played last season. The team went 8-3 in the games he played and didn't suffer a concussion. McDaniel was a great fit, as was new receiver Tyreek Hill. The future is bright and can be entirely upended with any hit Tagovailoa takes.
This should be a fun time for the Dolphins. When healthy, Miami is a Super Bowl contender with an exciting offense led by a highly touted quarterback coming off a huge season. The new coaching staff was a hit right away. It has been a while since Dolphins fans could feel this good, especially about their quarterback.
Hopefully, the Tagovailoa concussion story doesn't come up again.
Offseason grade
For the second straight offseason, the Dolphins made a big trade to acquire a superstar. Unlike the bold move to get Hill last offseason, the Dolphins didn't have to spend that much draft capital to get cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams. The Dolphins gave up a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long, a steal for a six-time Pro Bowl corner. That was the big move, and free agency was quiet. A two-year, $11 million deal with linebacker David Long was their biggest move. A two-year, $8 million contract with backup quarterback Mike White was necessary given Tagovailoa's health concerns. The Hill and Ramsey trades left the draft class thin. Cornerback Cam Smith was the team's second-round pick and running back De'Von Achane was picked in the third round. Getting Ramsey at a good price was what we'll remember from the Dolphins' offseason.
Grade: A-
Quarterback report
It's too bad Tagovailoa didn't play 17 games, because his breakout would be appreciated even more. He might have even been in the MVP discussion. Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating and 8.9 yards per attempt. He had 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 13 starts. He missed most of one start and probably played through a concussion for the entire second half of another. Even if we just add on four starts at those rates, he would have had more than 4,600 yards with about 33 touchdowns. It was an excellent season.
BetMGM odds breakdown
I like the Dolphins' roster. They were very good last season with Tagovailoa and at least competitive without him. But we all know that it's hard to bank on 17 games for Tagovailoa. The win total for the Dolphins at BetMGM is 9.5. Given the concern over Tagovailoa and a tough schedule in a deep AFC East, I have to take the under.
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "There’s risk and reward to almost any fantasy selection, but it’s staring you down if you select Tua Tagovailoa. He’s missed multiple starts in four straight seasons, dating back to his time at Alabama, and last year’s concussion issues were scary. So despite the presence of two absurdly talented wideouts and a well-respected play-caller, fantasy managers need a contingent plan if they select Tagovailoa as their de facto starter. If you settle on Tagovailoa as your QB1, be the first team in your league to target a high-end backup."
Stat to remember
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were great last season. They ended up with 3,066 combined yards, the third-most by a pair of teammates in NFL history, according to ESPN Stats and Info. The Dolphins decided that getting the ball to Hill and Waddle almost whenever they passed was the right play; Hill had 170 targets, Waddle had 117. Nobody else on the Dolphins had more than 52 targets. Hill set Dolphins records with 119 catches and 1,710 yards; Waddle led the NFL with 18.9 yards per catch. They put up those numbers despite Tagovailoa missing time.
Hill said on his podcast he wants 2,000 yards and another Super Bowl this season. Given how the Dolphins want to get Hill the ball as much as possible, he could hit that 2,000-yard goal. A Super Bowl title isn't out of the question either.
Burning question
How big of an impact will Vic Fangio make?
Fangio had mixed results when he finally got a chance to be a head coach with the Denver Broncos. But his defensive mind has never been questioned. Fangio is considered one of the best coordinators in the NFL, and hiring him was a big move for the Dolphins. He won't blitz much but he has a sound scheme that will confuse quarterbacks with different coverages. The one area in which a mediocre Dolphins defense can improve a lot is takeaways. They had just 14 last season, tied for 30th in the NFL. It's fairly amazing a playoff team could force so few turnovers. There's plenty of talent on the defense, especially after adding Jalen Ramsey. When Fangio was introduced to the media, he singled out pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and safety Jevon Holland (who will be a huge part of the scheme). Fangio should lead a big improvement.
Best-case scenario
It's easy to get excited for the Dolphins. The offense looked unstoppable when Tagovailoa was healthy last season. The defense added a proven asset at coordinator and arguably the best cornerback in football, so that side should be better. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, it's not too hard to buy the Dolphins being a top five offense and defense. This team can win a Super Bowl.
Nightmare scenario
Of course we know this revolves around Tagovailoa's health, and we've discussed that at length. Other than that, there aren't a lot of big questions. Maybe the NFL makes adjustments to McDaniel's offense in Year 2, but it's hard to see McDaniel getting figured out. Perhaps the defense will be just mediocre, like it was last season. And the AFC East is so tough, the Dolphins can finish in last place even with a good record. Given how good the roster looks, that would be a severe disappointment.
The crystal ball says ...
The Dolphins are a tough team to predict, because it's not like we know if Tagovailoa will stay healthy. The Dolphins could win a Super Bowl, or have a terrible season and be looking at new options at quarterback next offseason. It all depends on a variable that can't be predicted. If Tagovailoa plays most of the season, the Dolphins will be in the playoffs. There's a lot to like about them on both sides of the ball. We'll just leave it like this: It would be excellent, in all ways, to see what the Dolphins look like with a full season from Tagovailoa.
Other team previews
31. Houston Texans
30. Chicago Bears
29. Tennessee Titans
28. Los Angeles Rams
22. Denver Broncos
21. Atlanta Falcons
18. New York Giants
14. Cleveland Browns
11. Seattle Seahawks
10. Baltimore Ravens
