Memphis basketball's long road back to March Madness starts Thursday.

The No. 5 Tigers (22-9) will face No. 12 Wichita State (14-18) at 1:30 p.m. (ESPNU) at the AAC tournament. The Shockers advanced Wednesday by erasing an early 13-point deficit to beat Rice 88-81 at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

Penny Hardaway's team scuffled in conference play after an 11-2 start to the season, likely meaning it will have to repeat as tournament champions to advance to its third straight NCAA tournament.

“We put ourselves in this situation, you’ve gotta play your way out of it,” Hardaway said Monday. “If you get the first two (games), then the third one you get hungrier and the fourth one you get hungrier. To me, you just gotta get past the first one, then get to the next one. So, the first one is the most important.”

The first one for Memphis is Wichita State. The Tigers won both pf their games versus the Shockers this season, including a 112-86 win at Wichita on Jan. 14. They also won 65-63 at FedExForum on Feb. 3.

Here are three things to keep an eye on ahead of Thursday's tip-off.

Rebounding and defense

If there are two things that irked Hardaway more than anything else during the Tigers' turbulent stretch in January and February, they were rebounding and defense.

“This team has the talent,” Hardaway said recently. “Just got to put it together and play hard.”

Too often, the Tigers' effort level and "care factor," as Hardaway calls it, ebbed and flowed significantly. And it showed up most on the boards and in transition. Teams can sometimes get away with struggling in one area or the other but seldom both.

In AAC play, Memphis opponents rebounded a whopping 60.2% of the Tigers' missed field goals. They then capitalized on it, taking advantage of Memphis' often substandard transition defense. In non-conference games, the Tigers allowed just 8.1 fast-break points per game. Then, against league teams, that number ballooned to 11.2 per game.

“If you don’t rebound the ball and you don’t get back in transition, you give people easy baskets and second-chance points, it’s tough to win,” Hardaway said. “I feel like if we square those things up, that gives me the utmost confidence.”

Memphis basketball and its bench

Hardaway once considered his bench to be among his team's biggest advantages.

"Our strength is in our numbers," he has said repeatedly.

That has changed in recent weeks. The Tigers' reserves have averaged 8.8 points per game over the past four games. The four games before that, though, Memphis' bench averaged 21.8 points.

Part of that is due to the loss of senior center Malcolm Dandrige, who traveled with the team to Fort Worth but is still being held out of competition by the school until further notice, pending the outcome of an internal review of his eligibility status. At the same time, backup point guard Jayhlon Young and backup center Jordan Brown are banged up and have struggled to get into the flow of things, while Ashton Hardaway, Carl Cherenfant and Jonathan Pierre have played four minutes or less (or, have not played at all) in each of the past four games.

But, if Memphis has any hope of winning the AAC tournament (four games in four straight days), Hardaway knows his role players will have to step up.

“We need the bench to come in and sustain,” he said. “We put the bench in at FAU and we’re up 7. That lead went away really quickly. We feel like those guys are very capable of keeping the lead and pushing the lead further.

“We need everyone, even if you’re not scoring, to rebound, box out, protect the ball.”

Wichita State scouting report

The Shockers are led by guard Colby Rogers, who dropped 22 points against Rice. He has played more than 87% of the minutes he's eligible to play this season, which ranks in the top 75 in the country.

MEMPHIS BASKETBALL: Five bold predictions for unpredictable Tigers at the AAC tournament

Rogers' supporting cast includes Xavier Bell and Harlond Beverly (both averaging 11 points per game or more). But Wichita State's offense overall has not thrived this season, ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency.

A solid rebounding team, the Shockers turn the ball over a lot. Despite committing just six against Rice, it broke a string of eight consecutive games with 10 or more turnovers. But, it's noteworthy that Wichita State's low-turnover mark this season (five) came in its narrow loss at Memphis. The Shockers committed 18 turnovers in their first meeting with the Tigers.

Memphis basketball score prediction vs. Wichita State

Memphis 85, Wichita State 78: Difficult to see the Tigers folding.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis basketball vs Wichita State: Score prediction at AAC tournament