Advertisement

March Madness predictions 2.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big Ten basketball teams

craig meyer, usa today network
·8 min read
3

Less than one month from today, there will be a bracket. A 2024 NCAA Tournament that seemed like a far-off destination at the start of the season in November is inching closer and closer into view.

For the Big Ten, projections of the final tournament field reveal a larger truth: The conference hasn’t been quite as strong this season as it has been in recent years.

Even with an upset loss on the road last Sunday against Ohio State, No. 3 Purdue is still among the top contenders for the national title — but beyond the Boilermakers, there’s just one Big Ten team ranked in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, in No. 12 Illinois.

REQUIRED READING: College basketball rankings: Big Ten teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 on Feb. 19

Wisconsin is sliding, with five losses in its past six games, which is reflected in its seeding in the most recent bracket update. Michigan State is surging with eight wins in its past 10 games, but the Spartans’ lackluster 9-7 start to the season may limit just how high they can rise. Northwestern and Nebraska are both in the field, but as double-digit seeds.

With only a few weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, here’s a look at the updated 68-team field:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: These projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, Feb. 19.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

  • Texas A&M

  • Nebraska

  • Gonzaga

  • Providence

First four out

  • Seton Hall

  • Butler

  • Pitt

  • Colorado

No. 1 seeds

  • UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 3

  • Houston (22-3, 9-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • Purdue (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3

  • Arizona (20-5, 11-3 Pac-12): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 4

The Boilermakers' loss to Ohio State over the weekend knocked them back a spot in the Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, but they still have one of the strongest resumes of any team in the country, including a Division I-high nine Quad 1 wins. At this point, it would take a late-season collapse for Zach Edey and company to lose out on a No. 1 seed.

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (19-6, 9-3 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 5

  • North Carolina (20-6, 12-3 ACC): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 10

  • Iowa State (20-5, 9-3 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 9

  • Alabama (18-7, 10-2 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 6

No. 3 seeds

  • Marquette (19-6, 10-4 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 14

  • Kansas (20-6, 8-5 Big 12): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 17

  • Baylor (19-6, 8-4 Big 12): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 12

  • Duke (20-5, 11-3 ACC): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 11

No. 4 seeds

  • Illinois (19-6, 10-4 Big Ten): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 8

  • Auburn (20-6, 9-4 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 7

  • Creighton (19-7, 10-5 Big East): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 13

  • San Diego State (20-6, 9-4 Mountain West): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 18

The Fighting Illini just barely miss a spot on the No. 3 line. Last week, it rebounded nicely from a Feb. 10 loss at Michigan State, blasting Michigan by 29 and winning on the road against Maryland. Illinois has a favorable schedule ahead, with only two of its final six regular-season games coming against teams ranked in the top 50 on KenPom, so there's room for it to move up.

No. 5 seeds

  • Dayton (21-4, 11-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 19 | KenPom: 24

  • BYU (18-7, 6-6 Big 12): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 16

  • Kentucky (18-7, 8-4 SEC): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 21

  • Saint Mary’s (21-6, 12-0 West Coast): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 22

No. 6 seeds

  • Wisconsin (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 21 | KenPom No. 19

  • Texas Tech (18-7, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 23

  • Colorado State (20-6, 8-5 Mountain West): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 28

  • South Carolina (21-5, 9-4 SEC): NET No. 58 | KenPom No. 54

The Badgers mercifully ended a four-game losing streak on Feb. 13 with a win against Ohio State that indirectly led to the ouster of Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann. From there, though, they squandered an opportunity to generate some much-needed momentum, falling in overtime on the road against a middling Iowa team in a game in which they shot just 37% from the field in the second half.

REQUIRED READING: Michigan State basketball's Davis Smith delivers career moment in win at Michigan

No. 7 seeds

  • Clemson (17-8, 7-7 ACC): NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 30

  • Florida Atlantic (20-6, 10-3 American Athletic): NET No. 29 | KenPom No. 34

  • Utah State (21-5, 9-4 Mountain West): NET No. 30 | KenPom: 41

  • Michigan State (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 15

Whatever the Badgers are enduring right now, the Spartans are experiencing the opposite. Michigan State is coming together at the right time, with three consecutive victories. It won both of its games last week, defeating Penn State on the road 80-72 before knocking off bitter rival Michigan for the second time this season. By this point, coach Tom Izzo's team is comfortably off the bubble.

No. 8 seeds

  • New Mexico (20-6, 8-5 Mountain West): NET No. 24 | KenPom No. 25

  • Florida (18-7, 8-4 SEC): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 27

  • TCU (18-7, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 32

  • Washington State (20-6, 11-4 Pac-12): NET No. 31 | KenPom No. 33

No. 9 seeds

  • Virginia (20-6, 11-4 ACC): NET No. 41 | KenPom No. 53

  • Oklahoma (18-8, 6-7 Big 12): NET No. 39 | KenPom No. 37

  • Texas (16-9, 5-7 Big 12): NET No. 33 | KenPom: No. 29

  • Boise State (17-8, 8-4 Mountain West): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 50

No. 10 seeds

  • Northwestern (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 56 | KenPom No. 47

  • Ole Miss (19-6, 6-6 SEC): NET No. 65 | KenPom No. 68

  • Nevada (20-6, 7-5 Mountain West): NET No. 44 | KenPom No. 45

  • Mississippi State (17-8, 6-6 SEC): NET No. 38 | KenPom No. 35

Last week was a mixed bag for the Wildcats, who narrowly fell on the road against Rutgers before beating a reeling Indiana team in Assembly Hall on Sunday. Northwestern's metrics aren't quite as impressive as its record, but it still has a 4-5 record in Quad 1 games. If it gets too close to the bubble, though, a home loss from December against lowly Chicago State could prove to be costly.

No. 11 seeds

  • Indiana State (22-5, 13-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 49

  • Grand Canyon (24-2, 14-1 Western Athletic): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 58

  • Texas A&M (15-10, 6-6 SEC)**: NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 43

  • Nebraska (18-8, 8-7 Big Ten)**: NET No. 49 | KenPom No. 40

  • Gonzaga (20-6, 10-2)**: NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 20

  • Providence (17-9, 8-7)**: NET No. 59 | KenPom No. 56

For the second-consecutive week, the Cornhuskers snag one of the final four at-large spots in the field. They improved their standing a bit by trouncing Penn State by 19 in their lone game of the week. They've been virtually unbeatable at home this season, with a 16-1 record in Lincoln. They, too, have a favorable road to the tournament, with no games remaining in the regular season against KenPom top-60 teams.

REQUIRED READING: Hunter Dickinson defends Michigan basketball coach Juwan Howard against MSU's Jordan Hall

No. 12 seeds

  • McNeese (23-4, 12-2 Southland): NET No. 52 | KenPom No. 63

  • Samford (22-3, 11-1 Southern): NET No. 66 | KenPom No. 71

  • Drake (22-5, 13-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 46 | KenPom No. 48

  • South Florida (19-5, 12-1 American Athletic): NET No. 92 | KenPom No. 100

No. 13 seeds

  • UC Irvine (19-7, 12-2 Big West): NET No. 80 | KenPom No. 77

  • Yale (17-7, 8-1 Ivy): NET No. 82 | KenPom No. 87

  • Akron (19-6, 11-1 Mid-American): NET No. 93 | KenPom No. 97

  • Appalachian State (22-5, 12-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 76 | KenPom No. 85

No. 14 seeds

  • Charleston (19-7, 10-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 116 | KenPom No. 125

  • Morehead State (20-7, 11-3 Ohio Valley): NET No. 115 | KenPom No. 118

  • High Point (22-6, 11-2 Big South): NET No. 111 | KenPom No. 117

  • Vermont (21-6, 11-1 America East): NET No. 104 | KenPom No. 109

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (19-8, 13-1 Patriot): NET No. 127 | KenPom No. 140

  • Quinnipiac (19-6, 11-3 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 163 | KenPom No. 200

  • Oakland (18-10, 13-4 Horizon): NET No. 124 | KenPom No. 128

  • Eastern Washington (17-9, 11-2 Big Sky): NET No. 122 | KenPom No. 132

No. 16 seeds

  • Sam Houston State (15-11, 8-3 Conference USA): NET No. 177 | KenPom No. 172

  • Southern (16-9, 10-2 Southwestern Athletic): NET No. 196 | KenPom No. 210

  • Eastern Kentucky (15-11, 10-2 ASUN)**: NET No. 199 | KenPom No. 179

  • Merrimack (17-10, 11-2 Northeast)**: NET No. 202 | KenPom No. 204

  • Norfolk State (16-9, 6-2 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 224 | KenPom No. 248

  • North Dakota State (17-11, 9-4 Summit)**: NET No. 244 | KenPom No. 235

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: March Madness predictions 2.0: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for Big Ten