The Madness is upon us. Thursday marks the true beginning. Not of March, nor of the NCAA tournament, but of the best 11 consecutive days in sports.

Sunday will spur them into overdrive. But the final scheming and jockeying for position? It has begun. And although the Big Dance can either cure or spoil all, positioning matters. Matchups matter. Good fortune? Absolutely matters.

Which brings us to the subject of this article, the opponents that will represent good fortune. No two NCAA tournament draws are the same. Some, even across a single seed line, can vary wildly. The committee’s 1-through-68 never comes close – nor should it – to ranking college basketball’s 68 best teams in descending order.

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The selection criteria subject the bracket to three types of overseedings – three types of opponents you’ll want to see near your school when the pairings are revealed:

1. Teams that win all or most of their close games, and therefore are overvalued by win-loss-based metrics.

2. Teams that are trending downward, but who’ll be propped up on Selection Sunday by impressive feats in November, December and January.

3. Teams that, for one reason or another, aren’t built for the Big Dance.

Some teams fit more than one category. This list spans all three. Without further ado, let’s get to it.

Outliers among contenders

LSU | Projected seed: 2 | KenPom: 17

Forget, for a second, the ongoing FBI-investigation-induced drama surrounding Will Wade. Forget the fact that starting guard Javonte Smart may or may not be going down with his head coach. Even still, LSU doesn’t belong anywhere near the 2-seed line.

OK, that’s unfair. It belongs there based on wins and losses. Its charge to an outright SEC title was remarkable. But the Tigers can’t sniff the North Carolinas, Michigan States and Gonzagas of the college hoops world. They can’t shoot 3s. They don’t play rhythmic team offense. KenPom’s model would tag them with a No. 5 seed. Provided they don’t slide beyond the 3-seed line, they’ll be a gift to fellow top-ranked teams in their region.

(Oh, and by the way: We probably shouldn’t just forget Wade and the swirling scandal. It’s kind of a big deal.)

Wisconsin | Projected seed: 4 | KenPom: 12

The numbers disagree with this pick. They, apparently, love rock fights and gritty Greg Gard defense. (Unconfirmed whether or not they like alliteration.) But man is it tough to have faith in a likely top-four seed that A.) really only has one shot creator, when B.) that shot creator – Ethan Happ – shoots below 50 percent from the free throw line.

Wisconsin was rarely upset-prone under Bo Ryan, in part because it was so damn fundamentally sound. But the one year it did succumb to a double-digit seed was, coincidentally, its worst free-throw shooting team of the era. And besides, Gard isn’t Ryan. The Badgers are vulnerable.

Once overrated, now in free fall

Marquette | Projected seed: 5 | KenPom: 30

At 23-4 the final week of February, the Golden Eagles were fraudulent beneficiaries of an understatedly weak conference. Now, having choked away the most wide open Big East in years to Villanova with four straight losses, they’re closer to where they belong. But with a quartet of strong non-con victories, they shouldn’t fall below a 5-seed. Any 11, 12 or 13 that draws them will be salivating over a wounded bird without wings – even if Marquette can rebound with a few wins at MSG this weekend.

Iowa | Projected seed: 9 | KenPom: 40

Excluding the NIT – which, by the way, would be a more natural habitat for this Hawkeye team – Fran McCaffery is now 32-47 at Iowa after Feb. 8. His latest collapse is a doozy: Four consecutive losses, two-and-a-half to non-NCAA tournament teams, one of them a 14-pointer at home to Rutgers.

The Hawkeyes will nab a respectable seed on the back of an undefeated non-conference slate, a strong stretch in January, and a strange home win over 8-for-33-from-3 Michigan. But their defense is ghastly. They will not add to their 21st-century NCAA tourney win total of two. I’m ready to take that prediction to a sportsbook without even knowing the opponent.

A bubbler masquerading as a conference champ

Washington | Projected seed: 8 | KenPom: 47

The Huskies are going to be in the 7-10 seed range despite not beating an NCAA tournament team since … ... *paragraph stretches on into eternity*

Their offense is putrid. The conference they played it in is worse. Perhaps the Syracuse-West zone will be perplexing. But Washington will be one of the kinder middle-of-the-tourney draws.

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Henry Bushnell is a features writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Question? Comment? Email him at henrydbushnell@gmail.com, or follow him on Twitter @HenryBushnell, and on Facebook.