Make or break: Scottie Barnes, Scoot Henderson and other NBA players who can help or hurt their bottom-dwelling teams
As the first portion of the NBA season unfolded, each week we highlighted a handful of make-or-break players who will determine their teams' fortunes, for better or worse. Now, with these final five, we have a full rundown of each team's bellwether, so you can ride the ups and downs of the rest of the season with them.
The first five make-or-break players: Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat • Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder • Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks • Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers • Julius Randle, New York Knicks
The second: Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks • Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks • Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves • Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets • Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors
The third: Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies • Sam Hauser, Boston Celtics • Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers • Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic • Coby White, Chicago Bulls
The fourth: Bradley Beal, Phoenix Suns • Dyson Daniels, New Orleans Pelicans • Terance Mann, Los Angeles Clippers • Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers • Mark Williams, Charlotte Hornets
Last week: Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings • Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards • Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets • Kelly Oubre Jr., Philadelphia 76ers • Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
This, our final week ...
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
In the years since winning the 2019 NBA championship, the Raptors have lost core figures Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet for little to nothing in return. They have failed to make the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, but only once did they bottom out — with a 27-win 2020-21 campaign in which they played their home games in Tampa — and they identified Scottie Barnes as their ticket back to contention.
Following a stagnant second season, Barnes has made good on his promise, submitting an early All-Star bid. He is averaging 20.1 points (on 48/39/75 shooting splits), 9.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.9 combined blocks and steals per game, yet Toronto is still tottering on the cliff of a final play-in tournament berth.
Barnes' future looks bright, and it is high time the Raptors consider theirs with him as the centerpiece.
Pascal Siakam remains rostered, stacking statistics once again, now in service of a negative net rating. The best of both Siakam and Barnes is with the ball in their hands, and the former's status as a one-time champion and two-time All-NBA selection means he will dictate who holds it more. It would be natural for Siakam to be more concerned with his next contract than the development of his replacement in Toronto.
O.G. Anunoby joins Siakam in the 2024 free-agent class and, according to our own Jake Fischer, has sought an expanded on-ball role for two summers running — to no avail. How is it that three talented 6-foot-8 playmakers — one the best free-agents-to-be, another the Raptors would not trade for Kevin Durant and a third they valued more than three first-round draft picks — cannot form the foundation of a winner? This is a question Raptors executive Masai Ujiri must have asked himself countless times over the past three years.
This season should provide his answer. They have tried a new coach, a new system, new players around them. So it must be ... something about them? You could see how Anunoby might consider himself the middle child of Toronto's positionless basketball vision, his development stunted by the presence of Siakam and the arrival of Barnes. If Siakam is also unwilling to cede control to Barnes and/or unable to augment him as a secondary playmaker, then the Raptors will spin their wheels until one or two more core figures depart.
On the bright side, Toronto has its direction: Build around Barnes, a 24-year-old with all the tools to become something akin to their next Leonard. Surround him with a gritty, two-way guard, some 3-and-D weapons and a lob threat. (You know how many times Jakob Poeltl has thrown down an alley-oop dunk in 512 career games? Four.) Siakam can be swapped for some of that. Maybe Anunoby fills one of those spots. If not, flip him for more. Maybe Gradey Dick becomes a piece. Be bad for a bit. Add another high draft pick or two.
But get the project going, and make sure everyone knows Barnes is in charge.
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers, on the other hand, need to find out if Scoot Henderson is their guy. They moved on from Damian Lillard to make room for Henderson, and like it or not, the No. 3 overall pick will carry that burden.
Henderson's rookie season is off to a rocky start, with plenty of valleys and maybe one peak — Monday's 19-point, six-assist effort in a five-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. It does not help that a right ankle injury cost Henderson nine games. He has played 13 games and fallen short of five points in three of them. He has a Jordan Poole-level assist-to-turnover ratio with a worse shot. His 44% clip at the rim and 22% clip from 3 are both worst among anyone who attempts as many shots as he does from both locations.
It is even more alarming that he is attempting only 2.6 shots at the rim per game. Derrick Rose is seven years removed from his fourth knee surgery, 35 years old in all, playing 19.6 minutes per game off the bench and still getting to the basket as much as Henderson. Relentless paint attacks are supposed to be Henderson's bread and butter, but Portland head coach Chauncey Billups is not going to trust any point guard who cannot finish, shoot or reliably create for his teammates more than he assists his opponents.
On the bright side, the Blazers are 5-9 with Henderson in the lineup, 1-8 when he sits and playing teams to a relative standstill in his 331 meaningful minutes this season, per Cleaning the Glass. They are managing.
Henderson is only 19 years old, but there are two other young guards on the roster who want the ball just as much, and there is no plausible scenario in which all three share the court for a productive team. Three games into Anfernee Simons' return from a six-week thumb injury, the 24-year-old has totaled 105 points on 79 shots. Shaedon Sharpe is averaging a 19-6-4 on 43/37/82 shooting splits, and he is just 20 years old.
The Blazers need to figure this out sooner than later. Is Henderson the foundation? Does he fit with Simons or Sharpe? Small sample-size theater: Henderson, Simons and no Sharpe: -16 in 47 minutes. Henderson, Sharpe and no Simons: -22 in 180 minutes. Simons, Sharpe and no Henderson: -2 in 58 minutes. Keep spinning the wheels on that logjam, and Henderson's next contract will come due before Portland knows it.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Notice a trend here? These teams are bad, and it is imperative that the guys they drafted to become superstars actually become superstars. That determines whether they ever emerge from this morass.
On the surface, 22-4-7 from someone who has played only 100 NBA games is encouraging, especially on a team that cannot shoot. Unfortunately, Cunningham contributes to that poor marksmanship. His field-goal (41.7%) and 3-point (31.3%) percentages are odd for a career 85.7% free-throw shooter. Of course, nobody will get great looks when Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren form your most common lineup. (Honestly, if someone nicknamed Beef Stew is your sole floor spacer, you are in trouble.)
I get taking swings on recent top-three picks Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman, but maybe not both at once. As it turns out, two good teams gave up on 21-year-old prospects because they are not very good. Go figure. Injuries to the team's most promising center, the 20-year-old Duren, have left the Pistons little choice but to pair Bagley or Wiseman with Cunningham. How many projects can Detroit conduct at once?
The same can be said in the backcourt, where ongoing debates over Hayes and Jaden Ivey could be pointless if neither turns out to be a worthy partner for Cunningham. Hayes and Ivey are shooting 30% on 120 combined 3-point attempts. At least Hayes takes care of the ball and gives you something on defense.
By the sound of this, you might think the Pistons are one of the worst teams in the history of the NBA, and you would be right. They are 2-22 and losers of 21 straight, a near impossibility in the 3-point era. And if you thought they were trying to lose, guess again. They paid Monty Williams $78.5 million to coach wins.
A novel idea: Simplify things around Cunningham. There is a need to collectively develop this group, and injuries make this more complicated, but can we see more than a smattering of Cunningham with both Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks, just to find out how much better he might be with veteran shooting? Cunningham's size allows for length in small-ball lineups. Fold in a taste of Thompson (a great rebounder) at center before Duren's return. At least try to field rotations that make sense or might pop. Cunningham's development is the franchise's way forward, and developing in complete misery is hard. Give him hope.
Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
The Jazz traded Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, stockpiling draft assets for what seemed like a rebuild.
Then Lauri Markkanen emerged as an All-Star, they started last season 10-3, and a mirage of functionality formed. Flipping Bogdanović for Kelly Olynyk predated this. Re-signing Jordan Clarkson and adding John Collins came afterward. They can rationalize each decision individually, but assembling this collection of veterans requires someone — another star, preferably — to pull it all together, to make it make sense.
Gauging Lillard's interest fit that bill, even if they might have been more of an interesting offensive experiment than a real playoff threat. Instead, they have held their chips, perhaps waiting on another option.
In the meantime, a handful of prospects are operating on a similar wavelength below those veterans. None of them are can't-miss. Walker Kessler, who arrived in the Gobert deal, showed promise last season as a foundational center and played for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup. Ochai Agbaji, part of the return for Mitchell, has been in and out of the starting lineup and is shooting 39% from 3-point range. The Jazz used all three of their first-round picks in June on Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh.
Is any one of them a connective piece that can coalesce a randomly compiled roster? George is the most likely candidate. He sees the floor well. He should attack more. Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker all have higher usage rates, and that has a lot to do with George's lack of scoring prowess. He is shooting 36.1% from the field and 32% from 3 after shooting 37.6% from the field and 33.8% from 3 at Baylor.
It is difficult to empower him to emerge as a leader of their youth movement with so many veteran options available to second-year head coach Will Hardy. Either George develops into that player, or the Jazz trade for someone to fill that binding role, but the process feels rushed because of the way the team is built.
Markkanen's free agency looms in 2025, and how many other veterans will be around when Utah is good again? Three more first-round picks could join the team in June. Utah owns the Clippers' pick, Houston's pick (if 5-30) and its own (if 1-10) in what is considered a suboptimal draft, which could mean more darts thrown in hopes of hitting a bull's-eye and leaning harder into a youth movement. George's rapid progress might allow the Jazz to choose between their two wavelengths before time makes the decision for them.
Unfortunately, George suffered a scary foot injury a few minutes into Wednesday's win over the New York Knicks. Fortunately, he appears to have avoided a serious diagnosis. Take a breath, come back stronger.
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs
The Jeremy Sochan experience at point guard — what Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich termed "our official 2023-24 experiment" — has been covered ad nauseam here and everywhere. Essentially, San Antonio placed a considerable chunk of Victor Wembanyama's first-year development — and a piece of the NBA's future — in the hands of someone who a few weeks into the season said of handling the primary playmaking duties, "There have been moments where it’s like, 'Yo, I don’t want to.' It’s like, ‘F*** this s***.'"
So, how that's going with and without their one true point guard, Tre Jones? Per Cleaning the Glass:
Wembanyama, Sochan and no Jones: -21.1 points per 100 meaningful possessions (356 minutes)
Wembanyama, Sochan and Jones: +0.8 points per 100 meaningful possessions (70 minutes)
Wembanyama, Jones and no Sochan: +3.7 points per 100 meaningful possessions (252 minutes)
Oh, and a franchise-record 18 consecutive losses.
Tying Wembanyama's introduction to the NBA to Sochan's success as a 6-foot-8, first-time floor general runs the risk of alienating a roster willing to meet the 7-foot-4 Frenchman wherever he might take it.
Except there has been an interesting wrinkle of late. The Spurs have shifted a portion of Sochan's touches to Keldon Johnson and other playmakers. Through November, Sochan led San Antonio in touches (66.6) and time of possession (4.6 minutes) per game, according to the NBA's tracking data. In the past four games, he is down to 48 touches and 1.9 minutes of possession, fifth and sixth on the team, respectively.
Johnson enjoyed his best game of the season in a narrow loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, totaling 28 points (10-of-14 FG) and eight assists against one turnover. Five of those assists found Wembanyama. Johnson has now assisted on more of Wembanyama's baskets than anyone else on the Spurs.
What this means going forward will be fascinating to watch. Will Popovich revisit the Sochan experiment? Might Sochan have benefited from this experience? Could he transition into a secondary playmaking role, improving the overall connectivity of the team? Is the point guard of Wembanyama's future on this roster? Does everyone get a chance to play point guard? Is the entire season one big experiment? Sochan is emblematic of that broader picture, and if he emerges from this adversity better for it, maybe the Spurs can, too.
