Madden NFL 25 predicts 2024 season, including Dak Prescott MVP, Ravens hoisting Lombardi and 13-win ... Panthers?
It’s August, so you know what that means — it’s time for Yahoo Sports’ annual "Madden" simulation. This is the seventh year in a row we are running an entire season through EA Sports’ popular football simulation video game, which was released this week.
Last year, Charles McDonald and Anthony Sulla-Heffinger’s simulated seasons produced a mixed bag of results. Madden accurately predicted a strong rookie season from Texans QB C.J. Stroud and that the Chiefs would win the Super Bowl, but also 16-1 and 14-3 seasons from the Cowboys and Broncos, respectively.
This time around the same rules apply: McDonald and Sulla-Heffinger each simulated a season in Madden NFL 25 and pulled out some key takeaways that may or may not actually happen.
Super Bowl:
Sulla-Heffinger: Hey, San Francisco, you were back in the Super Bowl — and it wasn’t against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens steamrolled you in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII. Jackson took home MVP honors for the game, finishing with 323 total yards (273 passing, 49 rushing) and four total TDs. Zay Flowers had a monster game, catching six passes for 126 yards and two TDs as Baltimore lifted the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in franchise history with a 35-14 win.
McDonald: The Ravens and 49ers also made the Super Bowl in my league, with the Ravens winning a 23-17 barnburner in overtime. Marlon Humphrey was given Super Bowl MVP with a game-winning pick-6 that cemented him into Madden lore.
More likely to happen: Madden clearly believes in the Ravens, but we'll go with the closer Super Bowl score of Charles' sim
MVP
McDonald: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ran away with the MVP on my simulation. He barely crossed over the 4,000-yard mark passing, but he threw 36 touchdowns to just five interceptions and chipped in 350 yards on the ground with seven more touchdowns and no fumbles. Forty-three touchdowns and five turnovers would absolutely be enough to end up in MVP consideration in real life.
Sulla-Heffinger: My simulation last season inaccurately predicted that the Cowboys would win the Super Bowl. While they didn’t make it that far in my results this year, there was plenty of hardware to add to Dallas players’ trophy cases. Dak Prescott was the runaway MVP, finishing with a league-best 4,822 passing yards and 49 total TDs (46 passing, 3 rushing). Prescott would have led the NFL in all passing categories but his 73% completion rate fell a shade below Brock Purdy’s 75%. If Prescott can sniff a season like this in real life, he’s going to be getting a very large contract from Jerry Jones.
More likely to happen: We'll go with the lower total numbers of Charles' sim with CeeDee Lamb's contract status still hanging in the balance
Offensive Player of the Year
Sulla-Heffinger: Speaking of Lamb, he played the entire 2024 season in the simulation — and absolutely balled out. Lamb torched defensive backs and his peers, leading the league with 137 catches (26 more than the next-best WR), 1,842 yards (319 more than the next-best), and his 16 TDs was second to Brandon Aiyuk (17, and still a 49er). Although these marks were all career-high totals, it’s an oddly similar stat line to Lamb’s stellar 2023 campaign and would justify any deal Dallas gives him this season.
McDonald: Christian McCaffrey won his second straight Offensive Player of the Year award with 1,791 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 352 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He had 250 more rushing yards than second place (Derrick Henry) and had the third-most receiving yards of any back in the league.
More likely to happen: Lamb and Anthony's sim, since nobody has won back-to-back OPOYs since Marshall Faulk 23 (!) years ago
Defensive Player of the Year
McDonald: Maxx Crosby had a dominant season, taking home hardware with a Defensive Player of the Year award. Crosby led the NFL with a whopping 23 sacks and also had 19 tackles for loss, which ranked fifth. Virtual Maxx Crosby should hold out for a $40-million-a-year contract.
Sulla-Heffinger: Maxx Crosby took home the award in my simulation, finishing the season with 17 sacks (second only to Myles Garrett’s 18.5) and 18 tackles for loss. Crosby also added a forced fumble and two recoveries while anchoring a Raiders defense that finished No. 6 in the NFL. Crosby was a finalist for the award last season alongside Garrett (the eventual winner) and T.J. Watt, so perhaps this is a sign that the Las Vegas defensive end will finally get over the hump.
More likely to happen: Anthony's sim, with Christian Wilkins and a beefed-up Raiders d-line taking some sacks away from Crosby but not diminishing his overall impact
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Sulla-Heffinger: Despite throwing for fewer yards than any of the other first-round rookie QBs, Caleb Williams was named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Williams finished with 2,858 passing yards (No. 4 among rookie QBs) but led the first-year NFL signal-callers in total TDs (33) and completion percentage (70%). That said, Chicago did not make the playoffs, finishing third in the NFC North with an 8-9 record. While Williams won the award, Jayden Daniels was impressive for the Commanders, leading rookie passers with 3,610 yards and finishing second with 23 passing touchdowns and completing 65% of his passes. Bo Nix and Drake Maye each surpassed 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in their first seasons as well.
McDonald: This one was a bit strange. Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman won Offensive Rookie of the Year with 98 receptions for 1,249 yards and seven touchdowns. Obviously, a great season. However, J.J. McCarthy, who will unfortunately be missing the actual NFL season, threw for 4,200 yards and 33 touchdowns. McCarthy led the NFC in passing yards and led the entire league in completion percentage (74%). That would literally hand him the award in real life.
More likely to happen: Caleb Williams, but we're already fans of Keon and we're rooting for your comeback, J.J.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
McDonald: Rams edge rusher Jared Verse took Defensive Rookie of the Year with 13 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. He barely beat out his own teammate, Braden Fiske, who had 23 tackles for loss (first in the NFL) and 9.5 sacks. The Rams would take that level of production from their pair of rookie defensive linemen in real life.
Sulla-Heffinger: The lone bright spot for the Seahawks in my simulation was Byron Murphy II, who was named Defensive Rookie of the Year. Murphy led Seattle with 18 tackles for loss — the same as Maxx Crosby, who won DPOY — and had seven sacks in his first NFL season. Murphy is coming off being named the 2023 Big 12 defensive lineman of the year and has drawn strong reviews in training camp, so this seems like one of the more realistic outcomes we’ve had in Madden sim history.
More likely to happen: Murphy. Close call, but he has defensive wizard Mike Macdonald as his head coach and play-caller, while there's a non-zero chance Verse draws too much attention on a Rams defense that's still probably a year away to make a huge impact
Coach of the Year
Sulla-Heffinger: Last year, Madden predicted the Panthers to make the playoffs (spoiler alert: they didn’t). This year, Madden isn’t just predicting the Panthers to make the playoffs, it’s predicting them to win the NFC South with a 13-4 record and has Dave Canales capturing the NFL’s Coach of the Year award. We’re gonna keep pounding with the Panthers a little later in this article, so stay tuned.
McDonald: Kyle Shanahan won Coach of the Year with a 14-3 record before another heartbreaking Super Bowl loss. Sounds about right.
More likely to happen: Shanahan, but closer than you might think, since Canales getting the Panthers anywhere close to the playoffs is quintessential Coach of the Year criteria.
Best record
McDonald: The 49ers had the best record in the league at 14-3. We already know how it ends up for them.
Sulla-Heffinger: For the second straight simulated season, it was the Cowboys. Dallas finished on an 11-game winning streak en route to a 15-2 regular-season record. The Cowboys sported top-10 units on offense and defense, were unbeaten on the road, had both the league MVP and Offensive Player of the Year — yet still couldn’t make the Super Bowl. Dallas wound up losing the NFC championship game at home, 37-32, against the 49ers.
More likely to happen: 49ers. That being said, we'd love to see how a 15-2 record and close loss in the NFC title game would impact Dallas for years to come.
No. 1 pick/Worst record
Sulla-Heffinger: There’s no sugarcoating it — the Titans were putrid. Tennessee finished the simulated season 3-14, and had the third-worst scoring offense and ninth-worst defense in the NFL. Second-year QB Will Levis had the fewest TDs of any starting QB (16) and Tennessee did not have a single 1,000-yard rusher or receiver. If this comes to fruition, there will certainly be major changes for the Titans, who are currently two years removed from back-to-back AFC South titles.
McDonald: The Cardinals did not have the season they were hoping for. The went 2-15 and gave up the second-most points in the NFL with 493 for 29 points per game. Kyler Murray threw for 3,100 yards, 19 touchdowns and 19 interceptions, and they couldn't run the ball. That would be a huge disappointment for a Cardinals team that seems poised to take a step in real life.
More likely to happen: Cardinals, because they play in a tough division and that defense really is a major concern.
Surprise team
McDonald: The Saints exceeded expectations and went 11-6, winning the NFC South. Derek Carr had a bounceback season with 3,700 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Chris Olave nearly had 1,200 receiving yards and six touchdowns. That's a season that just about everyone involved with this franchise would take.
Sulla-Heffinger: I already alluded to this above, but the Panthers were easily the biggest surprise in the simulation. Carolina has won 13 or more games only once in franchise’s history (15-1, 2015) and has fired a coach midseason in back-to-back years, so going 13-4 is a stunner. Led by Bryce Young (3,600 yards, 25 TDs, 69% completions) and rookie RB Jonathon Brooks (15 TDs), the Panthers finished with a top-10 scoring offense and went an impressive 7-1 on the road. Considering Carolina was winless on the road and scored just 23 total TDs last season, color me more than a bit skeptical here.
More likely to happen: We can't even begin to count the unlikelihoods in the Panthers sim, so it's basically Saints by default.
Biggest disappointment
Sulla-Heffinger: The Browns were one of the NFL’s feel-good stories last year as Joe Flacco and a staunch defense helped lead Cleveland to an unlikely playoff berth. That said, Madden has its doubts about 2024. In my simulation, Cleveland finished 5-12, with the seventh-worst defense despite Myles Garrett tallying a league-high 18.5 sacks. Although the simulated defense was terrible, the blame also falls on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson, who had another lackluster campaign in Ohio, finishing with 2,241 yards, 17 TDs and having completed just 59% of his passes. Watson was limited to 14 games in the simulation as well, marking the third year in a row he did not finish a full season with the Browns.
McDonald: Atlanta completely imploded in Raheem Morris' first stint as the full-time head coach, going 3-14 and tying for the second-worst record in the NFL. Kirk Cousins was abysmal in his debut season for Atlanta, throwing for 3,000 yards, 21 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Atlanta had arguably the worst defense in the league, allowing 476 points and grabbing a league-worst 14 sacks. Even Bijan Robinson struggled, running for just 3.9 yards per attempt. No one had fun.
More likely to happen: There's a healthy mix of likely and unlikely in both, but outside of Deshaun Watson the Falcons' spate of concerns feels more legitimate, so we'll go with them
Stat that wowed us
McDonald: The NFL somehow had 23 1,000-yard rushers in this simulated season. There were 12 last season in real life, 16 in 2022 and seven in 2021. This simulation would be a huge break from NFL trends. In fact, the last time the NFL had more than 20 1,000-yard rushers was 2006, when 23 players rushed for over 1,000 yards. The leading rushers that year were LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Tiki Barber and Steven Jackson, in case you wanted to feel ancient today.
Sulla-Heffinger: Isiah Pacheco finished the simulated season with a league-high 21 rushing TDs. This stat stood out because we do not see 20 rushing touchdowns in a season in today's NFL. For reference, the last time an NFL player rushed for 20 or more scores in a season was 2006, when LaDainian Tomlinson set the record with 28. If Pacheco can break the 20-touchdown threshold, he’d become just the third player in Chiefs franchise history and first since Larry Johnson in 2005 to do so.
More likely to happen: Twenty-three 1,000-yard rushers, given how a return to pounding the rock is widely acknowledged as one of the next tectonic strategy shifts in the sport. Maybe this is the season?
