When should LSU football expect Brian Kelly to win national championship? Here's our take
Brian Kelly says there’s “no doubt” his 2024 LSU Tigers can contend for a national championship.
Pardon us, but we harbor doubts.
Start with: How much better is LSU’s defense? LSU led the nation last season in scoring while finishing 10-3, but it lost three offensive stars to the first round of the NFL Draft, including quarterback Jayden Daniels.
The offense is almost bound to regress a little. To become a true championship contender, the defense must not only be better, it must be substantially better after its train-wreck performance in 2023.
On this edition of “SEC Unfiltered,” a podcast from the USA TODAY Network, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams discuss Kelly’s comments about LSU’s program direction he made during Toppmeyer’s wide-ranging interview with Kelly in early April in Baton Rouge.
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Kelly’s tenure started impressively enough, with 20 victories through two seasons, and he thinks LSU is better positioned than at any point since his hire.
That includes better depth, more veterans, and less reliance on youth and newcomers.
“Structurally, would we like a piece here or there? Sure,” Kelly said during his nearly 40-minute exclusive interview with the USA TODAY Network. “But, I think the program is now built on a foundation that they can go compete for a championship. I don’t know that we were solid enough in all areas to do that in Year 2.”
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Let’s unpack this further:
How seriously are we taking LSU football as a national championship contender this season?
Toppmeyer: That depends on what we mean by championship contender. This boils down to semantics. LSU profiles as a serious contender for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Does being a playoff hopeful automatically designate you as a championship contender? I don’t think so. I’m a believer in Garrett Nussmeier. I expect him to emerge as one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks. LSU will maintain a high-powered offense. That alone makes it a playoff contender. The defense should improve, but by how much? Not by enough for LSU to win the national championship. It’s a playoff contender, not a championship contender.
Adams: LSU still has work to do. The Tigers are not as fortified entering this season as Georgia, Texas or even Ole Miss. I might rank Tennessee ahead of LSU, as well. The defense has so far to come after last season. Also, Nussmeier might be really good, but Jayden Daniels was the best player in college football last season. It’ll be hard to replicate Daniels' production. LSU making the playoff? Believable. Winning the national championship? Not this year.
LSU football spent big to hire Brian Kelly. When should he be on the clock to produce a national championship?
Toppmeyer: Not in Year 3. His 20 victories through two seasons are more than Nick Saban won in his first two seasons at Michigan State, LSU or Alabama. Kelly continues to build momentum, both on the field and on the recruiting trail. As long as he’s showing progress, he’s not on the clock. Kirby Smart needed six seasons to win a national championship at Georgia, but he built positive momentum throughout that journey.
Adams: LSU fans have lofty expectations. That’s understandable. LSU won national championships with Saban, Les Miles and Ed Orgeron. Kelly arrived at LSU with a better résumé than any of those three, so it’s fair to expect a lot from Kelly. But, demanding a national title within three seasons is too soon. Anyway, who would LSU hire in place of Kelly? He remains the best coach for this job. It’s important that he maintains momentum and shows progress toward a national title.
Will Brian Kelly win a national championship at LSU?
Toppmeyer: Yes, but I don’t think it happens this season and maybe not next season, either. But, I think it happens.
Adams: An expanded playoff offers an easier path to qualification but more pitfalls to winning a national championship. But, I lean yes. I trust the track record – Kelly’s track record, and also LSU’s track record.
Later in the episode
Which SEC quarterback will be the first selected in the 2025 NFL Draft? We examine three candidates: Georgia's Carson Beck, Texas' Quinn Ewers and Alabama's Jalen Milroe.
Where to listen to SEC Football Unfiltered
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. John Adams is the senior sports columnist for the Knoxville News Sentinel. Subscribe to the SEC Football Unfiltered podcast, and check out the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: LSU football: When should Brian Kelly win national title? Our analysis
