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Lady Vols basketball bold predictions: Tennessee returns to Sweet 16 with Kim Caldwell

Lady Vols basketball season is almost here.

Tennessee officially begins its first season under coach Kim Caldwell against Samford on Tuesday (6:30 p.m., SEC Network+) at Food City Center. The Lady Vols were picked to finish No. 7 in the SEC by both coaches and media.

Here are four bold predictions for the 2024-25 season.

The Lady Vols will break program record for scoring average

Caldwell said she wants to score in the 90s and 100s every game, and the Lady Vols hit that with an emphasis in their exhibition against Carson-Newman. Tennessee won 135-49, which tied for the second-most points in an exhibition in program history.

The Lady Vols will average 90 or more points this season, which would break the program record. The highest a Tennessee team has averaged in a single season is 88.9 in 1987-88. The highest the Lady Vols have averaged in the last decade was 77.6 in 2017-18.

In order to average that many points, the Lady Vols will also probably have the break a couple more program records.

Tennessee's record for field goal percentage in a season is .517 during the 1982-83 season, and its record for 3-pointers is 242 in 2010-11. If the Lady Vols score 90-plus points a game, they'll break both those, too.

Tennessee will lead SEC in 3-pointers

Arkansas led the SEC last season with 288 made 3-pointers (8.7 per game), and South Carolina led in 3-point percentage at 39.5% on 253 made 3-pointers. Tennessee should exceed both those marks in Caldwell's system and lead the SEC in 3-point shooting.

Marshall, where Caldwell was the coach last season, made 350 3-pointers in 2023-24, good for 10.6 per game, and shot 42.5%. Tennessee shot 39.6% from 3-point range in its exhibition, but I expect that to go up as players settle into the system and shooting at pace in games.

Jewel Spear shot 5-for-11 from 3-point range in the exhibition, and she'll be one of Tennessee's top threats.

Carson-Newman guard Karli Haworth (2) defends Tennessee guard Jewel Spear (0) during an exhibition game between the Lady Vols and Carson-Newman at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024.
Carson-Newman guard Karli Haworth (2) defends Tennessee guard Jewel Spear (0) during an exhibition game between the Lady Vols and Carson-Newman at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024.

But the Lady Vols knocked down 19 3-pointers against Carson-Newman. The most 3-pointers they made in a single game the last decade is 14, and it was rare for Tennessee to hit 10 or more. But this season, the Lady Vols should, and need to, average more than 10.

Lady Vols return to Sweet 16

Caldwell has never missed an NCAA Tournament as a head coach.

There's only two years in Caldwell's career she hasn't taken her team to at least the NCAA Regional – her first season at Glenville State and her first season at Marshall. I'm predicting she'll break the trend at Tennessee and make it to the second weekend.

The Lady Vols have the depth Caldwell's system demands. If the early signs are indicative of anything, it's that the caliber of players Caldwell has now can take the system to greater heights.

Ruby Whitehorn will be highest-scoring transfer in the SEC

I don't say this lightly with incoming transfers across the SEC like Georgia Amoore at Kentucky or Raegan Beers at Oklahoma. But Ruby Whitehorn scoring 29 points in 19 minutes in her debut is an insane level of efficiency.

The junior guard is a pure scorer and looked confident shooting 3-pointers in Tennessee's exhibition, which was my main question mark about her coming out of Clemson. She only made 37 3-pointers on 26.6% shooting with the Tigers, but Whitehorn isn't that player anymore.

EXHIBITION: Takeaways from Lady Vols basketball's 86-point rout of Carson-Newman in Kim Caldwell's debut

Whitehorn is only going to get better as the season goes on, and I see her leading SEC transfers in scoring this season.

Cora Hall covers University of Tennessee women’s athletics. Email her at cora.hall@knoxnews.com and follow her on Twitter @corahalll. If you enjoy Cora’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that allows you to access all of it.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Lady Vols basketball bold predictions: Kim Caldwell reaches Sweet 16