Kevin Love, Serge Ibaka and the day the East got a lot more interesting
LeBron James has rendered the Eastern Conference playoffs meaningless for the past six seasons. Despite challenges from the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers in 2012 and 2013, there was little doubt the James-led Miami Heat would reach the NBA Finals every season he spent in South Beach.
The odds against James coming out of the East have only increased since his return to Cleveland, and true to form the Cavaliers are 24-4 against conference opponents in the playoffs the last two seasons.
So, when news broke on Tuesday morning that Kevin Love would miss the next six weeks following knee surgery and the Toronto Raptors had traded for Serge Ibaka, the first thought that crossed my mind was, Well, at least the Eastern Conference playoffs just got a little more entertaining today.
[Follow Ball Don’t Lie on social media: Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Tumblr]
Even without Love until late March at the earliest — and even if he’s not 100 percent again at any point this season — the Cavs remain the favorites to win the East by a wide margin, and Las Vegas agrees. They swept the Atlanta Hawks sans Love in the conference finals two years ago, and with two straight Finals trips under their belt, this year’s roster is far more seasoned than that 2014-15 edition.
But there are a few more factors at play here. Not only are the Cavs without Love, but they’re missing J.R. Smith, who refuted a recent report suggesting he’d be back from his thumb surgery in mid-March:
Please don't believe the hype. Still a ways to go. "Sources" means they have nothing else to wright. Trusting my process!
— JR Smith (@TheRealJRSmith) February 13, 2017
“Still a ways to go” seems to set Smith’s timeline closer to April, which could mean Cleveland will be re-incorporating a still-recovering Smith and Love into the lineup just as the playoffs are set to start. When those two were healthy, LeBron was still outspoken about the team’s need for both “a f***ing playmaker” and a rim protector. “We top-heavy as s***,” he said last month, and Love’s injury only tips the balance of those scales to weigh more heavily on the shoulders of James and Kyrie Irving.
Incredibly, Love — not James — owns Cleveland’s highest net rating this season, as the Cavs have outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. (Even more jarring: J.R. Smith is second at plus-7.9; James is third at plus-7.6). With Love on the bench, they’re being outscored by 2.3 points per 100. That’s what happens when you’re forced to replace a perennial All-Star with a frontcourt rotation of Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye and now Derrick Williams alongside LeBron.
More concerning is the onus this puts on LeBron for the rest of the regular season. LeBron is currently tied with Raptors guard Kyle Lowry for the league lead in minutes per game (37.6) — a rather ludicrous statistic, considering James is now 32 years old with almost 50,000 career minutes on his treads.
With Love injured, Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue suggested on Tuesday, via ESPN.com’s Dave McMenamin, “We can’t run LeBron into the ground because Kevin is out,” but James insisted on just the opposite:
“I’ll rest when I retire,” LeBron told reporters at practice. “As long as I’m in the lineup, we’ve got a chance. We good. Kev is out. Kev is out for an extended period of time. J.R. has been out. But I’m in the lineup. I’ll be suiting up, we’ve got a chance against anybody. I ain’t worried.”
After 14 seasons of this, we have an idea of who wins the player-coach debate with LeBron. Since Lue was already running James into the ground when Love was in the lineup, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland won’t continue to lean heavily on him down the stretch. Yet, ESPN.com’s Tom Haberstroh detailed why resting James makes the most sense, mainly because continuing at his current pace runs the risk of seeing either a lesser or, worse, an injured version of the four-time MVP come playoff time.
Whether the Cavs rest James or not, Love’s injury opens the door for the Celtics to steal homecourt advantage over their final 27 games, since Boston (36-19) only trails Cleveland (37-19) by two games in the East. The Washington Wizards (33-21) and retooled Raptors (32-23) also have an outside shot at catching the Cavs for the top seed, but that’s a tall order with only a third of the season left to play.
Cleveland swept Boston in their first-round playoff series two years ago, but with a much-improved Isaiah Thomas and newly signed Al Horford at the top of the bill, this is a different C’s team than the one that was pieced together midseason and just happy to be there in 2015. Boston has gone toe-to-toe twice in Cleveland this season, including one game without Horford, and an improved C’s team should make for a more interesting series against the potentially injury-plagued and shallow Cavs.
After seeing the Celtics up close on Monday for Boston’s 10th win in 11 outings, Dallas coach Rick Carlisle, one of few who have beaten LeBron in the playoffs, figured the Celtics for a puncher’s chance:
Rick Carlisle on the Celtics: "They have a legitimate chance to get to the (NBA) Finals through the East with that team."
— Tim Cato (@tim_cato) February 14, 2017
A meeting with the Celtics likely wouldn’t happen until the conference finals, and first the Cavs have to get there. Their first-round opponent should be the same cakewalk it’s been each of their last two playoff trips, but an improved East could mean a second-round meeting with the Raptors or Wizards.
Ibaka gives Toronto a better version of the Bismack Biyombo-anchored frontcourt, with Patrick Patterson and DeMarre Carroll, that gave Cleveland so much trouble and forced a Game 6 in the East finals a year ago. The Cavs have risen to the occasion in all three of their meetings with the Raptors this season, but relied heavily on a starting lineup that could still be feeling the effects of their injuries in the playoffs, so there’s at least the chance fatigue could tip the balance in Toronto’s favor.
Whatever a series between Washington and Cleveland might look like, the lineup of John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat — the East’s most productive starting unit since Christmas — won’t let the Cavs off easy. Even if it’s a five- or six-game series instead of a sweep, this won’t be the East coronation LeBron & Co. have become accustomed to since his return to Ohio.
All that said, the Cavs are currently 7-0 against the Celtics, Raptors and Wizards this season, and two years ago they swept the conference finals with a hobbled Irving and without homecourt advantage or Love. It’s also important to note Love and Smith are both expected back for the playoffs, and even at less than full strength, Cleveland is a heavy favorite to make a third straight trip to the NBA Finals.
Still, an emboldened East, with upgraded rosters among the conference elite, should challenge the Cavs more than they’ve been their previous two trips. Who knows what might happen if Love and Smith aren’t at full strength, the rest of the top-heavy team is worn out as a result and one challenger manages to force a Game 7. LeBron probably still makes a seventh straight NBA Finals appearance, because he’s LeBron, and that’s what LeBron does, but at least now there’s some drama in the East.
– – – – – – –
Ben Rohrbach is a contributor for Ball Don’t Lie and Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach