We're nearly at the 2024 NFL season's halfway mark. There are still plenty of games left to be played, but there's a hierarchy developing in this year's most valuable player race.

Some of the old standbys we expected are there. Lamar Jackson has a legitimate chance to defend his title. Josh Allen could finally break through this winter. Joe Burrow is searching for the wins to push him to the top of consideration.

But surprises linger. Patrick Mahomes is leading an undefeated team but playing some of the least efficient football of his career thanks to a depleted receiving corps and issues at left tackle. Aaron Rodgers's quest for a fifth MVP has fizzled alongside the New York Jets' playoff hopes. In their place, unexpected candidates like Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels have emerged.

Which of these quarterbacks has been the most effective through eight weeks? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 128 snaps through eight weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

Welcome to the Tony Zone, Spencer Rattler! If you split up the rest of the league's starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. The MVP race near the 2024 halfway point

1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.205 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.181

3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.172

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.166

Daniels struggled in stretches against the Chicago defense, but understood the assignment on a game saving Hail Mary that was as much his triumph as it was the Bears' failure. Allen crushed the Seahawks by riding Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman to big games and leaving Amari Cooper as a decoy, which is a problem for the rest of the AFC.

Jackson got derailed in Cleveland in the kind of game that reminded Baltimore it can't quite rely on Rashod Bateman as WR2. Burrow was outplayed by Jalen Hurts and saw a 17-17 game turn into a 34-17 loss. That's gonna amp his degree of difficult near its max for a playoff run, but pulling it off could lock in MVP honors.

2. The dense second class of good, occasionally great quarterbacks

5. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.144 EPA+CPOE composite

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.141

7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.141

8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.130

9. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.129

10. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.127

11. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.127

12. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.122

13. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.116

A healthy Carr will likely regress to the mean once he returns. Darnold has slid from a top three perch and could work his way out of the top 10. Otherwise? These are all guys you'd trust to win playoff games. Murray may be the exception, though he's playing the most efficient football of his career now that he's fully recovered from 2022's torn ACL.

Hurts's continued solid play has been the stabilizing influence that could save Nick Sirianni's Eagles career. After contributing nearly two touchdowns worth of negative value against the Buccaneers in Week 4, he's roared back with 22.2 EPA in the three games since Philadelphia's bye -- all wins.

3. Capable of jumping into the top 10 with a few good weeks

14. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.101 EPA+CPOE composite

15. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.101

16. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.099

17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.090

18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.084

19. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.071

Lawrence is beginning to look more like the prince who was promised, racking up 23.8 EPA the last four games. He pushed the Jaguars to a last-minute tie against the Packers even without his top wideouts, though it didn't matter because his defense remains a mess. Speaking of, Malik Willis rallied Green Bay following Love's groin injury, which is great for the Packers but not ideal for Love's reputation.

Herbert has quietly shined despite his lack of proven targets under Jim Harbaugh. He's had a passer rating of at least 91 every game this season and thrown a single interception in seven games despite pushing his average throw distance up to a career-best 7.8 yards downfield.

Fields was solid, but the switch to Russell Wilson was the right one. His composite through two starts, is a healthy 0.143.

4. We mostly expected better

20. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.064 EPA+CPOE composite

21. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.063

22. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.053

23. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

24. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.043

25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.042

Rodgers is not the reason New York lost to the Patriots in Week 8. Still, it's clear the Jets counted on him being more than the league's 20th-best quarterback this season.

Williams was stymied by a weak Commanders defense before finally coming alive... only to be undone by his coaching staff on a last-ditch Hail Mary. Bears! Stafford is beginning to look like his old self, in part because of the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua but much more importantly because his offensive line has improved considerably after a Week 6 bye.

5. Various replaceables (and a maybe-good Bo Nix?)

26. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.038 EPA+CPOE composite

27. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.032

28. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028

29. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

30. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.010

Let's talk about Nix, the only member of this group capable of being a starting quarterback we'd care about in 2025 and beyond. Last week's 284-yard, three touchdown performance was the best of his career to date, but it also came against the Panthers. He's the quarterback of a 5-3 team, but only one of those victories came against an opponent with more than two wins this fall. His average throw goes 8.2 yards downfield, but he's completed just 37 percent of his passes that travel at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Inscrutable, right? Then there's this; Nix is averaging -0.12 EPA/dropback when blitzed, which isn't great but is manageable. Revert that to four man rushes and his no-blitz EPA per play falls to -0.18. At some point opponents are going to sit back and flood the intermediate part of the field and dare him to torch them deep. How he handles that will determine his future in the NFL.

6. Bad and very bad

31. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: -0.019 EPA+CPOE composite

32. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.055

The Tony Zone is a rough place to be. But it's a much more reasonable place for a rookie fifth round pick than a second-year player drafted fourth overall. Richardson's accuracy struggles are related to his tendencies to make big throws downfield. That's understandable, but it doesn't address the fact his short throws, uh, aren't great either.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: A Josh Allen-Jayden Daniels-Lamar Jackson MVP race is gonna rule and Week 9 QB rankings