INDIANAPOLIS — Two versions of the same question have hung over the Colts in just about every offseason since Chris Ballard took over as general manager.

The first version of the question is simple.

Will he spend?

Ballard has made a handful of high-profile moves in his time in Indianapolis outside of quarterback signings, paced by the blockbuster trade that brought DeForest Buckner to the Colts and the opportunistic pickup of Stephon Gilmore. But he has largely become known for his reticence to shell out enormous sums of money in free agency.

The Colts general manager typically prefers to reserve his biggest contracts for his own players and avoid paying top-shelf prices for middle-shelf players.

But there is a better version of that question, a balancing act Ballard is trying to perform almost every offseason, given his preference for building through the draft.

When is it time to bet on the development of promising, but unproven, talent, and when is it time to take a big swing for a difference-maker, even if he ends up blocking the young talent the Colts have assembled at the position.

The 2024 decision will be defined by how Ballard threads that needle.

Explosive plays

The Colts have already declared their primary goal for the offseason.

“We have to get more explosive on offense, and we have to be able to eliminate the explosives on defense,” Ballard said at his postseason press conference in January.

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Additions are not the only way for Indianapolis to address explosive plays.

For example, the Colts believe the return of starting quarterback Anthony Richardson will increase the offense’s explosive plays simply by his presence. When Richardson was in the lineup, the combination of his dynamic running ability and strong arm created more explosive plays — Indianapolis ranked 10th in the NFL in explosive plays before Richardson suffered season-ending shoulder surgery.

Outside of Richardson’s return, the focus on explosive plays at W. 56th Street this offseason comes down to the choice between relying on development and adding to the collection of talent the Colts already have, provided Indianapolis retains its biggest free agents.

If Indianapolis brings back wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., cornerback Kenny Moore II and nose tackle Grover Stewart, the needs the Colts have this offseason are based around places they need more production, rather than players.

Will the Colts add a wide receiver or tight end?

The Colts believe they have an explosive quarterback in Richardson. The team’s running back, Jonathan Taylor, is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL when he’s healthy, and Ballard’s bet on the development of young offensive linemen ended up paying off handsomely last season.

Although Indianapolis will likely add depth at all three positions this offseason, the foundation in place offensively puts the spotlight on two positions in order to add big-play potential to head coach Shane Steichen’s scheme.

Wide receiver and tight end.

Even if Indianapolis retains Pittman, the Colts had just three receivers who played more than 124 snaps last season, a lack of depth that would have been a bigger problem if Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs hadn’t been remarkably healthy. The trio lost just one game due to injury, the concussion Pittman suffered against Pittsburgh.

Pittman and Downs have established themselves as high-volume targets.

The Colts hope Pierce, who has averaged 15.2 yards per reception on 73 catches through two seasons, is finally able to fully realize his potential after spending most of his first two seasons playing with quarterbacks who struggled to throw the ball downfield, limiting his effectiveness.

“The things he does really well, and really why we drafted him is getting down the field,” Ballard said. “When we were able to use him in those situations, he was successful. I think we’ve got to continue to work on ways to let him do what he does well, and that’s stretch the field.”

The Colts still have a need at wide receiver even if Pierce realizes that vision.

The harder choice might be at tight end. Ballard has invested heavily in the position the past couple of seasons, but none of the players Indianapolis has drafted has established himself as a bona fide, difference-making starter at the position yet.

The player with the best athletic profile, Jelani Woods, missed his entire second season due to hamstring problems. Drew Ogletree is on the commissioner’s exempt list. Kylen Granson has been more of a possession target so far, and although Will Mallory impressed at times as a rookie, he’s still unproven.

Ballard could decide to count on one of those players to emerge.

If Georgia product Brock Bowers falls to No. 15, though, Ballard will have a choice to make, a choice that highlights how the decision isn’t always between developing youth and the free agent market.

Draft analysts believe Bowers is a can’t-miss difference-maker at tight end. If he falls to No. 15, he’d likely push one of the young, developing tight ends out of the rotation.

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Bowers also might transform the Indianapolis offense immediately, in ways the other young Colts tight ends haven’t.

“He is one of the best 10 players in the draft,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said in a conference call last week. “Everything he does, separate easy. He can go get it. He can climb the ladder and go and get the ball, and really the run after catch stuff is what makes him special.”

What kind of ‘fuel’ will the Colts add to the defensive backfield?

The Colts brought defensive coordinator Gus Bradley back for his third season in Indianapolis because Ballard believed his bet on young secondary talent last offseason ended up tying Bradley’s hands, forcing him to design and call the defense to minimize the mistakes of a young secondary.

Indianapolis will be young again, even if the Colts bring back Moore as the team’s slot cornerback and Julian Blackmon at strong safety — or another veteran safety, because the strong safety spot is the primary communicator and the most complicated position in Bradley’s defense.

A player like Gilmore, an established veteran outside cornerback, would instantly give the Colts the piece they need to give the coaching staff more faith in the secondary. The same goes for the free safety position.

But there are also a bunch of young players Indianapolis is already developing at both spots. Ballard praised the cornerback trio of JuJu Brents, Jaylon Jones and Dallis Flowers at the start of the offseason, but two of those players, Brents and Flowers, face significant injury concerns heading into the 2024 season, and Jones was a seventh-round pick who must continue developing to establish himself as a long-term starting cornerback in the NFL.

Free safety is just as dicey. Nick Cross and Rodney Thomas II have not been hit hard by injury in the first two years of their careers, but inconsistency has plagued both players, robbing the defense of the reliable eraser it needs as the last line of defense.

Colts news: Colts face difficult, critical decisions at safety this offseason

If the Colts are serious about limiting explosive plays on defense, they have to be better at both spots.

“We’ll add fuel,” Ballard said. “We’ll add competition to it.”

In the past, that has often meant adding draft picks, rather than a proven player like Gilmore, and while there have been times the approach has paid dividends for the Colts, it has also often left Indianapolis with critical weaknesses.

Free agency vs. the draft

The Colts know what they want to be next season.

“We should legitimately be competing for the division and playoffs,” Ballard said at the start of the offseason. “That’s really our expectation every year, but I think that is really possible here going forward.”

The pursuit of the AFC South begins in earnest at the NFL scouting combine this week.

The NFL draft takes center stage at the Combine, but behind closed doors, the real movement is in the free agent market. Agents beginning meeting with teams, and teams start to get a full picture of the losses they will have and the additions they need to make.

The Colts have plenty of money to spend, especially after the NFL set the salary cap for 2024 at $255.4 million per team.

How Ballard uses it will be key to Indianapolis taking the next step under Steichen next season.

And how he uses it will be heavily directed by the choices Ballard makes between counting on the development of youth and swinging for the fences at positions of need.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts: Will Chris Ballard rely on more development or take big swing?