Insider: A 10-part plan to make the Colts a contender with Anthony Richardson in 2024
The Colts are fresh off of a 9-8 first season under Shane Steichen that shattered expectations, especially considering the modest offseason they took in order to build gradually around a rookie quarterback who was the No. 4 pick in the draft.
Thanks to Anthony Richardson, Shane Steichen and the flashes they showed together and apart last season, this spring has a different feel to it.
Indianapolis is armed with more than $58 million in salary cap space as well as the No. 15 overall draft pick. It will need a smart plan in order to get Richardson and this team what it really needs, which is playoff experience and the buy-in that comes with it. With a great offseason, perhaps the Colts could start dreaming of something even more than that.
Here are 10 steps the Colts could take this offseason in order to move the franchise forward:
1. Re-sign WR Michael Pittman Jr. via the franchise tag
The biggest immediate decision the Colts have to make is on their star receiver. Michael Pittman Jr. is headed to free agency after a third straight season of leading the team in receptions and yards, this time with a career-high 109 catches for 1,152 yards.
If the Colts are serious about making the playoffs this year and if they care about developing Richardson immediately as a passer, they have to re-sign Pittman. It'll be very expensive, but money is not a barrier to any single move right now, thanks to Richardson's rookie contract.
The franchise tag can be a good middle ground. For one year and $21.7 million, the Colts can keep bidders away from Pittman, and Pittman can view that salary as a floor for negotiations on a long-term deal. The end price will likely be somewhere between $23 million and $26 million and likely for four seasons, which would allow Pittman to cash in on the market again at the age of 30, like Mike Evans is now.
The Colts need to be careful not to overplay their hand with the tag like they tried with running back Jonathan Taylor. Pittman has made it clear that he'll do what it takes to get what he feels he can. And he's worth it -- not just as this team's best pass catcher but also as the embodiment of the traits general manager Chris Ballard says he wants in a franchise cornerstone.
Lock him down for let's say four years and $100 million and let the passing game cook.
Insider: Shane Steichen's focus on explosive plays define Colts offseason
2. Re-sign SS Julian Blackmon
In order to take a decent step forward as a team, the Colts need to avoid massive steps back at key positions.
Next to Pittman, Julian Blackmon is the most indispensable free agent the Colts have. He turned in a career year in his move to strong safety, where he led the Colts with four interceptions and eight pass breakups and racked up 88 tackles. Blackmon allowed just a 50% completion rate and cut his missed tackle percentage from .279 in 2022 to .120 in 2023, per Sports Info Solutions.
The concerns with Blackmon on the open market will be his 17 games missed and that he's had one special season, but both categories could just keep his price tag down for the Colts. Blackmon has played in 91% of games since his Achilles tear and found a home at strong safety, where he's the communicator for a young safety that badly needs one.
Lock him in for let's say three years and $27 million and let the middle of the defense grow together.
3. Re-sign DT Grover Stewart
Next to Blackmon, the player the Colts defense had the hardest time surviving without was Grover Stewart. The penetrating nose tackle missed six games for a suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs. The Colts allowed 3.7 yards per carry with him and 4.7 yards per carry without him last season.
Stewart himself is worth the difference between a very good and a very bad run defense. At 6-4 and 315 pounds, his game is based on physical strength and therefore isn't immediately replaceable in the draft.
Stewart will turn 31 next fall but is incredibly durable, having not missed a single game to injury the past four seasons. He's a perfect fit next to DeForest Buckner, since opponents can't double both in the run game and Dayo Odeyingbo can slide into his place on obvious passing downs.
Lock him in for let's say two years and $18 million and let the run defense become so secure that teams are forced to drop back into more obvious passing situations. The pass rush, which we'll get to, will love them for it.
4. Re-sign CB Kenny Moore II – but with a twist
Bringing players back doesn't just have to be about keeping a status quo. It can also be about reaching the next evolution of a unit through time and development, and that can be the case with Kenny Moore II.
After a down 2022 due to injuries and a scheme change, Moore bounced back to a Pro Bowl level last season, when he turned in 16 games, three interceptions and two touchdowns and allowed just 5.5 yards per coverage snap, per Sports Info Solutions. He re-established himself as a consistent coverage player and lethal run defender in the slot, but there's another layer to him, too.
Under Matt Eberflus from 2018-2021, Moore averaged 33.5 blitzes a season; under Gus Bradley, the number has dropped to 18 per season. Slot blitzing proved to be a great wrinkle in the playoffs for teams like the Ravens and Chiefs. It can introduces unidentified pressure from an athlete that a quarterback can't outrun at the speed he's already moving.
To do it consistently, a team has to trust the rest of its coverage, and we'll get to that. But for now, lock in Moore at let's say three years and $18 million and let him be the playmaker this back end sorely needs.
5. Extend DT DeForest Buckner
The Colts have more than $60 million to spend this spring, but they can open up even more by extending one of their stars.
DeForest Buckner is entering a contract year that will pay him $22.75 million. He's 30 now but at the peak of his powers. He is one of three players with six straight seasons of at least seven sacks, and he has not missed a single game since 2016 despite being double teamed as much as any interior player not named Aaron Donald.
Eye-openers: 5 Senior Bowl prospects who should be on the Colts' radar
Buckner is such a durable, elite and trained athlete that he looks like he should have a few great seasons left. The final four playoff teams this year all featured players who can generate at least five pressures a game, from Nick Bosa of the 49ers to Jones of the Chiefs to Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions to Justin Madubuike of the Ravens. Buckner can be that for the Colts to finish out Richardson's rookie deal.
Sign him for, let's say, three years and $60 million. Then, the Colts can spread the cap out to clear an extra $10 million for 2024.
6. Sign CB Kendall Fuller
Let's get into some moves on the outside.
Once the Colts re-sign some important pieces, their list of needs will shrink. But one that remains absolutely crucial to becoming a contender against playoff-caliber teams is cornerback.
The Colts should sign a free agent here, much like they did with Stephon Gilmore in 2022.
Kendall Fuller isn't the five-time Pro Bowler Gilmore was, but in turning 29 this month, he also has more time left in his prime. It's been a good prime, as he's played all but five games the past four seasons and has 10 interceptions and 49 passes defensed in that span. But he hasn't hit his ceiling in a Commanders secondary that hasn't had much around him at cornerback.
Fuller is about the size of Gilmore, who made life work in Bradley's Seattle-style scheme. A three-year deal for $35 million or so could lock in an experienced starter on the outside and could allow Jaylon Jones to slide into a backup role behind JuJu Brents, who has injury concerns to overcome.
7. Sign Tyrod Taylor as backup QB
The Colts need a backup quarterback now that Gardner Minshew is a free agent. Regardless of whether he lands a starting job elsewhere, the Colts should move on to a backup who can handle more of the quarterback-run elements of the offense they're installing for Richardson while still supplying a veteran presence for a young passer.
Tyrod Taylor fits that bill to a tee. He's played 13 seasons in the league, amassing a 28-28 starting record with 7.0 career yards per attempt. That will matter if Richardson's injuries flare up and he's forced to step in for some games. As will the fact that Taylor's averaged 5.6 yards per carry across his career, including 5.2 on 38 runs for the Giants last season.
Taylor is turning 35, and he has some durability concerns of his own, but those are mitigated as a backup. He's regarded as one of the best teammates around and would be an immense resource for Richardson to learn from, as well as a quarterback who can get the Colts to the playoffs if he needs to step in.
Let's say the Colts can sign him for two years and $9 million.
8. Sign RB Gus Edwards and WR Josh Reynolds
The Colts have a young offense in the passing game with set talent along the offensive line and at running back. Outside of tight end, which we'll get to in a moment, they don't need to overhaul any starting spots on that side of the ball so much as sprinkle in the necessary veteran depth to avoid the dips that came amid some injuries last season.
One low-cost acquisition could be to sign Gus Edwards to replace Zack Moss. Moss will be welcomed back, but he'll be looking for a starting opportunity at age 26 and fresh off a breakout season.
Edwards, 29, can offer much of what Moss does stylistically. He's a wrecking ball in short yardage at 6-1 and 238 pounds, and yet he's more than that, too, having topped 700 yards in four of five seasons with 4.9 career yards per carry. He's benefitted greatly from the threat of Lamar Jackson keeping the ball as well as some of Baltimore's triple-option concepts.
Colts mailbag: Why Antoine Winfield Jr. would be a grand-slam free agent signing
That's what can make him a great fit for the offense the Colts are building around Richardson. Edwards scored 13 touchdowns last season, and if the Ravens let him walk, he could be that goal-line bell-cow to keep some big shots off of Richardson in short yardage.
The Colts could go to the draft for a No. 4 receiver, but they can also sign one to free those mid-round picks up for a move we'll get to later.
Josh Reynolds could be a great fit if he's willing to take on a No. 4 role. He's turning 29, so he's on the edge of the prime of a career that has been sneaky effective for the Rams and Lions, as he's averaged 7.6 yards per target or better in every season since 2017. Last year was his best yet, as he turned in 9.5 yards per target with 608 yards and five touchdowns in Detroit.
Reynolds is 6-3 and 194 pounds, has experience playing inside and outside and is also a willing and adequate blocker. He checks the boxes of what the Colts need in that fourth spot, and he could see opportunities to mix in with Alec Pierce when the Colts need the inverse of Pierce's deep speed with Reynolds' steadiness underneath.
If Reynolds finds more opportunity to play elsewhere, someone like Noah Brown could be an option in a similar vein. But let's say the Colts can grab Reynolds for two years and $11 million and Edwards for one year and $4.5 million.
9. Draft Brock Bowers via trade up (if necessary)
The Colts have much to be excited about on offense: a young, athletic quarterback, a dominant running back, a resurgent offensive line, a No. 1 receiver they can re-sign.
What they don't currently have is a tight end who has proven he can play like the four who made this year's conference title games: George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Those names place opponents in a blender based on their abilities to play inside or outside against base or nickel defenses. They give the play caller a chance to always be right.
If the Colts are going to take a swing on offense this year, it should come at tight end. Last season, they cobbled together more than 800 yards with no player hitting 400. To really tap into Richardson's ceiling, they need the type of player who can get 800 on his own. That would also give Steichen what he had in Philadelphia with Dallas Goedert.
Brock Bowers has been the best tight end in college for three years running, leading Georgia in receiving each season en route to more than 2,500 yards, 26 touchdowns and two national championships. He had a target on his back and ripped up the Southeastern Conference anyway.
At a listed 6-4 and 240 pounds, he is not the devastating run blocker that Kittle is or even close. But he can still fit in a league where great offensive minds are finding ways to hide the struggles of tight ends in the run game with multiple tight ends, tackle help and kick-out blocks that use their athleticism as a weapon.
In Steichen's run-pass-option-heavy offense, a tight end like Bowers that defenses have to react to find and match up with quickly can be the ultimate weapon. He can blur the lines between heavy and light personnel and let Steichen attack the mismatch.
It's possible the Colts have that player in Jelani Woods, one of the most athletic tight end prospects in history, but it's impossible to know yet after he missed all of last season with different hamstring injuries. The Colts need to get to a place where they can reap the rewards of a Woods breakout without counting on it to happen.
It is possible but unlikely that Bowers will slide to the No. 15 pick. However, it shouldn't be impossible to trade up a bit if that's what it takes -- maybe with the Bears at No. 9 or the Vikings at No. 11, two franchises that have valued trades down in recent drafts. Perhaps a 2025 second-rounder or the next two third-round picks can make it happen if it's necessary.
The Colts won't be able to do this for Marvin Harrison Jr., who feels locked into the top five. Perhaps they can for the next-best offensive weapon.
10. Draft a twitchy edge rusher
The Colts set the Indianapolis record with 51 sacks last season, finally nailing the eight-man pass rush Ballard has spoken of wanting. But they fell short against Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and moved on from a defensive line coach because there is still one more level they need to get to, which is elite speed off the edge.
If the Bowers trade idea doesn't work out, this is where they could go in the first round with someone like Florida State's Jared Verse or UCLA's Laiatu Latu. After the first round, they can narrow the focus on speed pass rushers and find a good fit.
Washington's Bralen Trice has 16 sacks and 31.5 tackles-for-loss the past two seasons. He comes with a high-octane motor and a variety of pass rush moves the Colts don't have along their edges right now.
Penn State's Adisa Isaac broke out with 7.5 sacks and 16 tackles-for-loss last season and then turned in an active Senior Bowl week. He brings the kind of length and bendy body who could develop into something difficult to handle on third downs.
MORE: 5 Senior Bowl prospects who should be on the Colts' radar
Both players have their limitations in run defense, but that could make them a good fit as rookies on a Colts team that has Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam and Odeyingbo on base downs. As Odeyingbo slides inside on third downs, the Colts could use a player to win off the snap on the edge for when Buckner collapses the pocket from the inside. Then, if the Colts can develop him physically in the next year or two, they could have a cost-controlled replacement for when Paye hits free agency.
By addressing tight end and edge rusher right away in the draft and outside cornerback in free agency, after locking up Pittman, the Colts could go after premium positions this offseason in ways they've been hesitant to pay up in the past, back when they didn't believe in their quarterback.
Richardson's upside has brought visions of an eventual contender's ceiling. This offseason, the Colts could reach toward it for the first time.
Contact Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts: A 10-part plan to build a contender for 2024