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Indiana girls basketball: Predicting Saturday's semistate winners

I'm essentially the anti-Kyle Neddenriep when it comes to picking games, which is to say I'm really bad. But like our colleague Akeem Glaspie, who posted a big ol' donut in his first week of picking high school football games, I'm no quitter.

The Scorers Table: Statewide semistate preview

More: These are the best semistate matchups across Indiana

Here are my predictions for Saturday's semistate games.

CLASS 4A

LaPorte

G1: Homestead (23-4) vs. Lake Central (24-4), 11 a.m.

Lake Central's guard Riley Milausnic (2) reaches for a rebound with Lake Central's forward Ayla Krygier (35) on Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023, during the Hall of Fame Classic girls basketball tournament at New Castle Fieldhouse in New Castle. Lake Central defeated Indian Creek, 51-45.
Lake Central's guard Riley Milausnic (2) reaches for a rebound with Lake Central's forward Ayla Krygier (35) on Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023, during the Hall of Fame Classic girls basketball tournament at New Castle Fieldhouse in New Castle. Lake Central defeated Indian Creek, 51-45.

Can the Spartans get the score into the mid-60s against Lake Central, which typically scores in the 50s? Or will they suffer the same fate as South Bend Washington and be overtaken by an Indians defense that averages 14 steals per game? (Homestead commits 12 turnovers per game.) PICK: Lake Central by 5

G2: Noblesville (17-8) vs. Valparaiso (19-7), 1 p.m.

Valparaiso High School's Lillian Barnes (23) is defended by Noblesville High School's Bri Gray (34) at Noblesville High School, Dec 28, 2023. Noblesville won 65-56.
Valparaiso High School's Lillian Barnes (23) is defended by Noblesville High School's Bri Gray (34) at Noblesville High School, Dec 28, 2023. Noblesville won 65-56.

The Millers beat Valpo at a holiday tournament in December. The Vikings were still settling into their roles at the time and have taken strides since, led by sophomore standout Lillian Barnes and senior Becca Gerdt. However, Noblesville will have senior Ava Shoemaker, its third-leading scorer, this time around. Millers win one that's much closer than it looks. PICK: Noblesville by 7

Championship: Noblesville 60, Lake Central 50

Southport

G1: Lawrence Central (27-1) vs. Plainfield (18-7), 10 a.m.

Lawrence Central High School sophomore Lola Lampley (3) looks up court for a teammate to pass off to during the first half of an IHSAA basketball game against Pike High School, Friday, Dec. 15, 2023, at Pike High School.
Lawrence Central High School sophomore Lola Lampley (3) looks up court for a teammate to pass off to during the first half of an IHSAA basketball game against Pike High School, Friday, Dec. 15, 2023, at Pike High School.

Plainfield battled back to beat Pike last weekend and has a tremendous trio with senior Payton Benge (veteran leadership is so valuable), sophomore Berkeley Williams (she's been on a tear) and rising freshman Hannah Menser. The Quakers have a bright future, but the 2023-24 Bears are at a different level and have looked like grizzled veterans despite their lack of state tournament experience. They take control early and coast to the finish. PICK: Lawrence Central by 15

G2: Franklin (24-3) vs. Center Grove (26-1), noon

Franklin Community Grizzly Cubs guard Emma Sappenfield (20) goes in for a lay-up Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, during the game at Franklin Community High School in Indianapolis. The Jennings County Panthers defeated the Franklin Community Grizzly Cubs, 51-44.
Franklin Community Grizzly Cubs guard Emma Sappenfield (20) goes in for a lay-up Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024, during the game at Franklin Community High School in Indianapolis. The Jennings County Panthers defeated the Franklin Community Grizzly Cubs, 51-44.

Both teams looked so good last Saturday in Bedford. They can both score the ball at a high clip, but these matchups are typically low-scoring rock fights that are decided over the final few minutes. Look for this one to require overtime. It could go either way, but I started the season with the Trojans and I'm staying with them.  PICK: Center Grove by 1

Championship: Center Grove 58, Lawrence Central 55 — CG's defense holds the line as its shooters solve LC's press and begin finding their footing (similar to the Bedford North Lawrence game). This one will be fantastic regardless of the matchup.

Class 3A

Huntington North

G1: Hamilton Heights (24-2) vs. Norwell (21-4), 10 a.m.

Hamilton Heights Huskies Ella Hickok (2) yells to teammates on Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023, during the game at Lapel High School in Lapel. The Hamilton Heights Huskies defeated the Lapel Bulldogs, 53-41.
Hamilton Heights Huskies Ella Hickok (2) yells to teammates on Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023, during the game at Lapel High School in Lapel. The Hamilton Heights Huskies defeated the Lapel Bulldogs, 53-41.

Camryn Runner (27 ppg, 4 spg) is the star, but the Huskies will need big games from Ella Hickok and Katie Brown if they're to eliminate Norwell, which played the toughest schedule in 3A. Kennedy Fuelling (22 ppg) and Makenzie Fuess (16 ppg) account for about 58% of the Knights' scoring (Vanessa Rosswurm and Annabell Johnson are key contributors, too). PICK: Norwell by 2

G2: Bremen (15-11) vs. NorthWood (20-6), noon

New Prairie's Kaylee Hoggard (55) drives past NorthWood's Claire Payne (42) during the girls regional championship game Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024 at Jimtown High School in Elkhart.
New Prairie's Kaylee Hoggard (55) drives past NorthWood's Claire Payne (42) during the girls regional championship game Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024 at Jimtown High School in Elkhart.

Bremen beat Tippecanoe Valley by two and Hanover Central by four to reach semistate for the first time since 1986. Is there some magic left in the Lions? Maybe. But they've only beaten NorthWood twice since 2000-01 and the Panthers won the regular-season matchup by eight with Joselyn Edwards and Claire Payne combining for 41 points. The 6-1 Payne also accounted for nine of the team's 15 offensive rebounds. PICK: NorthWood by 5

More: Claire Payne continues family winning tradition with NorthWood girls basketball

Championship: Norwell 65, NorthWood 50

Jasper

G1: Danville (23-3) vs. Bishop Chatard (19-8), 10 a.m.

Two physical teams with similar strengths. Chatard played the tougher schedule, but it's not like Danville's gone untested (Plainfield twice, 4A Silver Creek and 4A McCutcheon). Emma Ancelet and Addison Davis are the primary cogs for the Warriors, whose primary focus will be on trying to contain Chatard's post pairing of Anna Caskey and Olivia Berzai. PICK: Chatard by 4

G2: Scottsburg (22-4) vs. Gibson Southern (23-4), noon

Gibson Southern’s Gabby Spink (15) and Paige Schnaus (32) celebrate their win over the Memorial Tigers during the semifinal round of the 2024 Class 3A Girls Basketball Sectional 32 at Gibson Southern High School Friday, Feb. 2, 2024.
Gibson Southern’s Gabby Spink (15) and Paige Schnaus (32) celebrate their win over the Memorial Tigers during the semifinal round of the 2024 Class 3A Girls Basketball Sectional 32 at Gibson Southern High School Friday, Feb. 2, 2024.

Scottsburg ended the regular season with blowout losses to Jeffersonville and Lanesville, but recovered with three straight double-digit wins to win its first regional championship since 1995. Gibson Southern boasts two of the best players in the field (Gabby Spink and Chloey Graham), plus 6-1 freshman Paige Schnaus, who's averaging 11 points over her past seven games. PICK: Gibson Southern by 6

Championship: Chatard 60, Gibson Southern 55 

Class 2A

Logansport

G1: FW Bishop Luers (17-6) vs. Lapel (23-4), 10 a.m.

Lapel Bulldogs Sophie Goodwin (1) yells in excitement Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023, during the game at Lapel High School in Lapel. Eastern Hancock defeated the Lapel Bulldogs, 62-55.
Lapel Bulldogs Sophie Goodwin (1) yells in excitement Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023, during the game at Lapel High School in Lapel. Eastern Hancock defeated the Lapel Bulldogs, 62-55.

Luers has a pair of rebounding machines with 6-0 Addie Shank and 6-2 Miley Wareing combining for 17 boards per game. Lapel counters with Laniah Wills, one of the best in the Class of 2026, and senior standout Madelyn Poynter (among others). This one goes down to the wire. PICK: Lapel by 2

G2: Andrean (13-14) vs. Lewis Cass (22-3), noon

Andrean took its lumps against a brutal November-December slate, but is 7-1 since Jan. 1. It's a junior-led outfit with Maddie Walton and Lindsay Arcella both averaging 11 ppg. Lewis Cass is led by two seniors (Kinsey Mennen and Heta Kosunen) and sophomores (Aftin Griffin and Anna Hendrick). Its losses were to Caston, 2A Carroll and 3A Rochester. PICK: Lewis Cass by 10

Championship: Lapel 51, Lewis Cass 38

Shelbyville

G1: Brownstown Central (18-9) vs. Linton-Stockton (20-6), 10 a.m.

This should be a great game. I'm riding with the Miners, who have a pair of special seniors with Bradie Chambers and Sidney Jerrells, both of whom played on coach Jared Rehmel's 2021 state championship team. PICK: Linton-Stockton by 4

G2: Eastern Hancock (24-1) vs. Sheridan (20-5), noon

Sheridan Blackhawks Kenzie Garner (12) reaches for a lay-up against Carroll Cougars Madison Wagner (5) on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023, during the game at Sheridan High School in Sheridan. The Carroll Cougars defeated the Sheridan Blackhawks, 48-44.
Sheridan Blackhawks Kenzie Garner (12) reaches for a lay-up against Carroll Cougars Madison Wagner (5) on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023, during the game at Sheridan High School in Sheridan. The Carroll Cougars defeated the Sheridan Blackhawks, 48-44.

It's been a tremendous season for Sheridan, which won its first sectional since 2015 and first regional ever. With leading scorers Kenzie Garner and Cecilia Timme set to return (along with basically everyone else), the Blackhawks will be back again. But this is the year for Eastern Hancock and its five seniors: Sammie Bolding, Ruby White, Brooklyn Willis, Makenzie O'Neal and Sydney Springman. PICK: Eastern Hancock by 12

Championship: Eastern Hancock 60, Linton-Stockton 58 — EH freshman Kenzie Koch takes over down the stretch to propel the Royals to their first-ever semistate title.

Class A

Frankfort

G1: Union City (14-12) vs. Clinton Central (24-1), 10 a.m.

Clinton Central shot 57% and picked up big performances from Sara Parkison, Erika Robson and Carly Davison to rout Union City in December, but the Indians, who committed 25 turnovers (11 steals), were without Oaklee Reichard. Having her, Luane Schoonbroodt and Camryn Fischer will help against Clinton Central, which hasn't lost since November. PICK: Clinton Central by 8

G2: Caston (22-3) vs. Marquette Catholic (22-4), noon

Caston has the firepower with seniors Isabel Scales (15.3 ppg) and Addison Zimpelman (14.1 ppg), but its fate Saturday afternoon will largely be determined on the defensive end, where it will have to contend with sophomore Laniah Davis (19 ppg, 6 rpg). Marquette Catholic is good for 30.5 rpg (13 offensive rebounds per game). PICK: Caston by 6

Championship: Caston 46, Clinton Central 45

New Albany

G1: Jac-Cen-Del (21-5) vs. Lanesville (26-1), 10 a.m.

Heck of a coaching matchup here between JCD's Scott Smith (423 wins over 23 seasons) and Lanesville's Angie Hinton (323 wins over 18 seasons). Seniors Julia Meyer and Reagan Hughes push the defending state champs to the brink, but Ava Kerr, Hadley Crosier and Shelby Allen prevail. PICK: Lanesville by 5

G2: North Central (Farmersburg) (18-10) vs. Wood Memorial (16-10), noon

North Central began its postseason run with an overtime win vs. White River Valley in the sectional quarterfinals, then rallied to beat Bethesda Christian in regionals. Jalyn Davidson was brilliant in regionals and Shelby Seay's having a great tournament, too. Wood Memorial, led by Katie Sevier and Josie Page, has won seven of eight and should have an edge inside, per coach Johnnie Bartley (via Evansville Courier & Press). PICK: North Central by 2

Championship: Lanesville 57, North Central 50 — NC lost to Lanesville by one in November and is one of only two Class A teams to finish within 10 points of the Eagles.

Follow Brian Haenchen on Twitter at @Brian_Haenchen.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: IHSAA girls basketball tournament 2024: Semistate predictions