How good will Iowa be with Caitlin Clark out the door?
The Hawkeyes aren't only replacing a generational scoring talent. Here are 3 keys for Iowa this season.
The Iowa women’s basketball program and its hearty fan base aren't strangers to new chapters. They turned the page two decades ago following the graduation of record-breaking point guard Sam Logic. Five years ago, they moved on from Naismith winner and Associated Press Player of the Year Megan Gustafson, then quickly again the following season when Big Ten Player of the Year Kathleen Doyle left.
Nothing compares to this new book in the series. Graduating generational talent and NCAA Division I all-time leading scorer Caitlin Clark is the dawn of a new era. Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall, two starters who played alongside her for four years and two national championship game runs, also ended their collegiate careers. Lisa Bluder, Iowa’s all-time winningest coach over 24 seasons, entered retirement a month later.
“It’s going to be a little bit [of] rebuilding,” first-year head coach Jan Jensen, a longtime Hawkeyes assistant, said at Big Ten basketball media days last month.
Iowa, which started the year outside of the Associated Press Top 25 poll, returns only one regular-season starter, junior forward Hannah Stuelke, as well as senior guard Sydney Affolter, a top reserve who stepped into a standout postseason starting role. There are eight returners combining for 40.8% of Iowa’s minutes and 35% of its scoring offense last year. Joining the crew are five freshmen, part of Iowa’s top-15 ranked recruiting class, and heralded transfer point guard Lucy Olsen, who faces the tall task of taking over for Clark.
Iowa’s formula remains post-Clark
It will be a rather seamless transition at the top as Jensen spent 24 years as an assistant on Bluder’s Iowa staff. The Iowa native also played for Bluder as a senior at Drake and joined the coaching staff there as an assistant. There won’t be a massive overhaul, but rather a continuation of the program’s success and minor tweaks along the way.
“What’s gotten us to this point has been a pretty good formula,” Jensen said at media day. “And I think the formula has always started and will always be, in my opinion, about the people. And I think we’ve been able to coach with great people. We’ve been able to recruit great people and attract great people to join us and stay with us.”
Jensen and Bluder went to 18 NCAA tournaments together and became the first team in Big Ten conference history to play in back-to-back national title games. The 2023 championship game was the program’s first ever and the second Final Four berth in history (1993).
The protagonist in those tales is Clark, a back-to-back consensus player of the year who led DI in scoring three of her four seasons. The recently named WNBA Rookie of the Year averaged a career-high 31.6 points per game (contributing 34% of Iowa’s 91 ppg offense), 7.4 rebounds and career-high 8.9 assists. In the game she broke the DI women’s scoring record, Clark scored or assisted on 79 of Iowa’s 106 points (74.5%).
“She was amazing. She pretty much brought everything to the team,” Olsen said, adding no one should watch expecting half-court shots from the team’s newest point guard.
Jensen said adding Olsen, a three-year starter at Villanova, was “one of the biggest gets” in the transfer portal. She averaged 23.3 ppg as a junior last year, third in DI behind Clark and USC’s JuJu Watkins (27.1 ppg), who Iowa will now face in the Big Ten.
Olsen plays more of her game in the mid-range than deep beyond the 3-point line. She's crafty, but not to the level of full-court football passes in transition. She has experience playing powerhouse UConn and faced Big Ten opponents Illinois (22 points, six rebounds, five assists) and Penn State (21 points, 3-5 from 3, six rebounds, six assists) last year.
The Associated Press All-American honorable mention initially committed to Bluder. When she saw the returning players stayed on to play for Jensen after the coaching announcement, she opted to as well.
Supporting cast undergoes overhaul
It’s not merely readjusting after losing Clark. It took an entire team to build a contender during the Clark era, and those crucial pieces are no longer there for support.
Martin, known as Iowa’s “glue,” did a little of everything before receiving a surprise WNBA Draft selection by the Las Vegas Aces. Marshall, their sharp-shooting floor spacer, completed five seasons of eligibility and is pursuing a master’s degree. Molly Davis, a crucial point guard transfer, and Sharon Goodman, the first big off the bench, are also gone.
Stuelke is the overlapping connector. The junior 6-foot-2 forward is an elite rim-runner who showcased what she’s capable of with a Carver-Hawkeye Arena record 47 points during Clark’s record chase. She averaged 14 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game as a sophomore Second Team All-Big Ten honoree. Jensen said she’s adding outside shots to her catalog.
Affolter, who stepped in for Davis in the postseason and earned Big Ten All-Tournament team and Albany 2 All-Regional team honors, will be another key leader. She is coming off an offseason surgical scope of her knee and returned in the second game of Iowa’s season.
Addison O’Grady, a 6-4 senior center buried in the depth chart her three-year career, will need to take the next step. She already showed her potential on a perfect 9-of-9 outing against Virginia Tech on Sunday. There are options in the backcourt with redshirt senior Kylie Feuerbach, junior Taylor McCabe, freshman Teagan Mallegni and freshman Taylor Stremlow. With so much depth, Jensen said it will be critical to use it wisely.
Making defense a priority
It is difficult to replace that much offensive firepower so quickly. Jensen, an offensive-oriented coach who grew up playing six-on-six basketball, took stock of the situation.
“When we assembled earlier and we started to look at our personnel, we really thought that this team had the potential to be one of our better defensive teams that we've had in the last few years,” Jensen said following a 71-50 win in the Ally Tipoff against Virginia Tech. “Because with our offense we graduated so much — the points, the percentage, the field goals, all of that — that I just wanted to try and have a counter and I think tonight that it showed.”
Iowa feasted upon fast-paced shootouts to stack victories last season, and although they could stand up strong defensively for late stops, it wasn’t a calling card. They ranked in the 40th percentile of defensive rating the last three years, per Her Hoop Stats.
This team, Jensen and players have said repeatedly, will change that.
“With the scoring that left the previous years, there’s a lot to fill and I think we’re not going to have someone shooting from the logo anymore, unfortunately,” Affolter told reporters last month. “But I think definitely stepping up on our defense is super important. Same philosophy as last year, but change it up a little [with] a couple things and really perfecting our zone, as well.”
The Hawkeyes not only have to grapple with a new age sans their superstar, they’re tasked with facing the next generational talent. Watkins, the reigning Ann Meyers Drysdale winner for the nation’s best shooting guard, is their conference competition after USC joined the Big Ten. USC and UCLA are two of the favorites to win the conference and also tabbed to potentially make the Final Four.
The addition of the two former Pac-12 powerhouses, plus Washington and Oregon, make the Big Ten arguably the best and deepest women’s basketball conference in the country.
“It did nothing but make us better,” Jensen said. “Is it harder? Heck yeah. But that’s what makes you great.”