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How good was Bradley basketball in January? Really good according to this computer model

The Bradley Braves men's basketball team had a very good start to 2024. The best in the nation, according to at least one statistical metric.

During games played in January 2024, the Braves were the NCAA Division I basketball team with the biggest jump in a stat called adjusted efficiency margin, according to a chart posted on X.com by Trilly Donovan (@trillydonovan) of Burner Ball — who The Athletic last fall called "college basketball's most mysterious news breaker."

Bradley (17-6, 9-3 Missouri Valley Conference) was listed ahead of other programs like North Florida, Central Michigan and Chattanooga, according to a graphic created by another X.com user, @dadgumboxscores, who also runs the newsletter Bless Your Chart.

What is the adjusted efficiency margin?

The adjusted efficiency margin, or AdjEM, is "the difference between the total points a team is expected to score, minus the points a team is expected to allow," according to a story about the statistic posted at tucson.com. It is one of the primary stats taken into account in the KenPom rankings, created by college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy — one of the top voices in college basketball analytics.

The Braves on Jan. 1 had an AdjEM of 3.72, according to KenPom, expected to outscore opponents by that many points in 100 possessions. BU then went on a tear in January, finishing the month with an 8-1 record and outscoring opponents an average of 82.4 to 66.4. By Feb. 1, Bradley's AdjEM had increased to 11.77 — a national-best jump of 8.05 in the metric.

Also during that span, BU jumped 52 spots in the overall KenPom rankings. As of Sunday, after a victory over Illinois State, the Braves are ranked No. 67 overall and 62nd in AdjEM.

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This article originally appeared on Journal Star: Bradley leads computer model list of college basketball teams in January