Georgia football vs. Tennessee: Score prediction, scouting report
Even before the College Football Playoff selection committee put out rankings this week that had Georgia football on the outside looking in of its 12-team bracket, things appeared different in preparations for Saturday’s monster tilt with Tennessee.
“The urgency has spiked in practice, it’s spiked in the preparation and all the things that we do to try to win,” offensive guard Dylan Fairchild said.
The Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2 SEC) left themselves little wiggle room when it comes to making the CFP after Ole Miss blew them out 28-10 last Saturday in Oxford.
“We know we’ve got to win this game,” tight end Lawson Luckie said. “That’s all we’re focused on. We’ve got to win this game.”
The Bulldogs, No. 10 in the coaches’ poll, can’t feel confident they’d make the playoff as a three-loss team after they tumbled to No. 12 in the latest CFP rankings. Boise State is in the bracket this week with an automatic bid as a conference champion and Georgia is out.
“Coming into this past week, we had a choice to make to dwell on this past weekend or look ahead and bounce back,” Luckie said. “I think we did a great job of that and I love how our team has attacked practice.”
Coach Kirby Smart said team leaders have been particularly vocal this week.
“The leaders are doing the right things,” Smart said. “They're handling those things well, and they're also owning up to mistakes they've made or how they've played. If it hasn't been to their standard, they want to improve."
Why Georgia will beat Tennessee
It’s hard to underestimate what being back at home means for Georgia after playing at home just three times in its first nine games.
Georgia didn’t play its best in a 41-31 win the last time it was between the hedges against Mississippi State on Oct. 12, but this game is a on a different level in magnitude.
Carson Beck is not playing at the level expected, but in his career at home he has a 24:5 touchdown to interception ratio as a starter compared to 17:13 on the road.
The Bulldogs have a nation-leading 28-game home winning streak and an opponent hasn’t come within a touchdown of Georgia at home since a 31-24 win over Mississippi State on Nov. 21, 2020.
Tennessee’s quarterback situation favors Georgia.
Nico Iamaleava has been in concussion protocol after leaving the first half of last week’s 33-14 win over Mississippi State and was listed as questionable on Wednesday.
The Vols turned to Gaston Moore in his place. The walk-on followed Tennessee coach Josh Heupel from UCF. He’s 16 of 25 for 201 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Iamaleava is eighth in SEC games in completion percentage at 62.3 percent
“Nico's such a high-level athlete and some of the runs he's made — I knew the kid was a great thrower, but I didn't know he was this kind of athlete and hitting the speeds he's hitting GPS-wise,” Smart said. “He made a run on Alabama that was really elite, so just recognizing his skill set is a lot. Then, trying to prepare for kind of two guys, because philosophically I don't know how they'll approach it with the other quarterback, Gaston.”
Tennessee is 10th in the SEC in scoring in conference games at 24.5 points per game. Georgia’s defense is 7th at 22.9.
Why Tennessee will beat Georgia
Georgia’s offensive line and running backs are banged up.
Both of the Bulldogs’ top right guards—Tate Ratledge and Micah Morris—are battling injuries. So is left tackle Earnest Greene who gave up two of Georgia’s five sacks at Ole Miss.
The Bulldogs will have to contend with edge rusher James Pearce who has 5 ½ sacks and 7 ½ tackles for loss.
"They do different things with him," Smart said. "They’ve put him on the center before. They’ve put him on guards before. They twist him and stunt him. But he's really good on the edge. And I'm sure watching last week's tape, that's probably where they want him."
Freshman Nate Frazier is the healthiest of Georgia’s running backs, but he had two fumbles last week. Starter Trevor Etienne is trying to play through a rib injury and Cash Jones could miss the game with an apparent foot injury.
Tennessee is second in the SEC in run defense, allowing 100 yards per game and fifth in the nation in total defense at 271.6., but gave up 168 rushing yards to Kentucky and 179 to Mississippi State.
Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson leads the SEC with 1,129 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns and is sixth at 5.6 yards per carry.
“He's very patient,” Smart said. “He hits small creases. He's hard to tackle. You don't put up – how many touchdowns has he got in the SEC? 20-something? That's crazy. In the SEC? The SEC is the hardest league in the world to run the ball in on because they've got the most size defensive lineman, and he continues to do it at a crazy pace to me.”
Sampson said Georgia's defensive line does "a good job holding the point, kind of two-gapping. ...They do a good job being in their spots and being aggressive."
Prediction
Georgia 24, Tennessee 21
Georgia needs this game in a big way and that should produce a fiery squad who should play more loose than tight at home. Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the nation, but this is not one of Heupel’s top offenses. Tennessee is 1-1 in true road games including a loss at Arkansas. Bulldogs ride home crowd to win.
This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: Georgia football vs. Ole Miss: Scouting report, prediction