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Game 4 lineup: How the Rangers keep defying the charts and stacking wins

SUNRISE, Fla. - There have been two prevailing sentiments regarding some of the Rangers' miraculous wins in these playoffs, including NHL highs in comeback (six) and overtime (four) victories.

Some view it as evidence that something special is brewing, with that collective resolve fueling the belief that these bend-but-don't-break Blueshirts are destined to end the franchise's 30-year championship drought.

Others look at those results with skepticism, pointing to a litany of statistical shortcomings and extended stretches pinned in the defensive zone while wondering how the heck they're pulling this off.

"Everybody sees the game differently," Rangers coach Peter Laviolette said following Monday's optional practice at Amerant Bank Arena.

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Since opening the playoffs with a sweep of the over-the-hill Washington Capitals, the Rangers have been outshot in eight of their nine combined second and third round games.

The gaps in shots on goal (316-234) and shot attempts (724-560) are stark, but that shouldn't come as a total surprise given their opponents. The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers both ranked in the NHL's top three in shots per game, with the Canes, in particular, known for flinging pucks from long range that the league's best defenses and goalies can generally handle.

"We’re playing two of the highest shot volume teams in the league," Laviolette noted. "You do have to weigh it a little bit."

To that point, it's important not to blindly look at the accumulation numbers without considering the quality of those looks.

The Rangers have been at a disadvantage in that category, as well, but the gap hasn't been quite as wide. Carolina and Florida combined for 75 high-danger scoring chances while New York has been credited with 60, according to Clear Sight Analytics. But where the Blueshirts set themselves apart is with their finishing ability.

Their 12.4% shooting percentage ranks first among all playoff teams, including the 12 that have been eliminated. The Panthers, by comparison, are at 10.4%, while the Hurricanes finished at 9.7%.

Those are significant difference, particularly in the context of games where the margin between winning and losing is razor thin. The Rangers' knack for converting their chances at key moments is proving to be a major part of their winning formula.

"We do have that confidence knowing that, it doesn't matter what the games like, we'll have a chance to pull it out," defenseman Ryan Lindgren said.

Typically, those timely goals come from high-end skill players at the top of the Rangers' lineup. But the interesting part about this Eastern Conference Final, where New York holds a 2-1 series lead heading in Game 4 in Florida on Tuesday at 8 p.m., is that the production hasn't been coming from the usual suspects.

Vincent Trocheck continues to bolster his Conn Smythe Trophy résumé, with a team-leading 18 points (seven goals and 11 assists) through 13 playoff games, of which four have come through the first three games against the Panthers. But four of the Rangers' other five leading scorers in the regular season − Adam Fox, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad − have yet to register a goal in this series, with just two combined assists among that quartet.

Instead, it's been fourth-line, penalty-killer Barclay Goodrow leading the charge with three goals in the last two games, plus another pair from emerging young star Alexis Lafrenière in Game 3 and an overtime winner from Alex Wennberg, who prior to that had scored only once in 31 games since being traded to New York.

"It's a team sport," Laviolette said. "It was great for Bergy to jump in there (Sunday) night and make a difference in a game like that, from (Lindgren) on the back end, a guy who does so much for us. That's a big goal and a big point. It's a team sport, and we need everybody contributing. Not everybody can be the story. You try to push that, right? You want everybody to make the noise – be the ink on the paper – for the good of the team, not for individual reasons. It takes a team. In order to keep moving on, you need it from everybody."

That depth has proven invaluable in back-to-back overtime wins, but it's fair to wonder if the Rangers can beat this ferocious Florida team twice more without getting more out of their top players and a power play that's started the series 0-for-8.

"We've got to be better," Laviolette said of the power play. "We're playing an aggressive kill – aggressive on entry, aggressive on in-zone setup – and, so, we've got to be better. We've got to be sharper with what we're doing on the ice."

Special teams and elite scoring talent have been two of the Blueshirts' biggest X-factors all season, but there's an obvious third ingredient to their winning recipe that ranks as the most important of them all.

May 26, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) defends his net against Florida Panthers left wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) during the first period in game three of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena.
May 26, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin (31) defends his net against Florida Panthers left wing Matthew Tkachuk (19) during the first period in game three of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena.

Igor Shesterkin leads all remaining goalies with a .925 save percentage and 9.6 goals saved above expected, according to moneypuck.com. He's the primary reason they can get away with being outshot and out-possessed in most games and still come away with wins.

"You don't want on him lean as much as we probably have at times, but there’s also the confidence of, you know he's there and you know what he's capable of doing and how he's playing," captain Jacob Trouba said. "At the end of the day, we want to play good defense in front of him and not rely on him as much as maybe we have some of these games, or some of these moments. But when we’ve needed him, he’s been there."

The Rangers can proceed with the conviction that they have the hottest goalie in the world on their side, but they could make his job easier by spending less time defending and more time on the attack.

Laviolette contended that the Game 3 stats, in which they were out-attempted by an eye-popping 108-44 margin, were skewed by an admittedly lopsided third period. But they were still at a 54-25 disadvantage in the first two periods, including 40-19 at five-on-five.

Can the Rangers expect to keep winning if those trends continue? That's the fascinating part of this debate, but just look at how far their combination of resiliency, clutch scoring and goaltending has taken them. They're uniquely built to withstand long bouts of pressure and still come away with wins.

If they can pull off six more and bring the Stanley Cup to Broadway for the first time since 1994, any questions about how they got there will be silenced.

NY Rangers (10-3) projected lineup: Game 4, Eastern Conference Final, vs. Florida Panthers (9-5)

When: Tuesday, May 28 at 8 p.m.

Where: Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla.

TV/Radio: ESPN/98.7 FM

Forwards

Top line ⊳ Chris Kreider (LW) ⋄ Mika Zibanejad (C) ⋄ Jack Roslovic (RW)

Second line ⊳ Artemi Panarin (LW) ⋄ Vincent Trocheck (C) ⋄ Alexis Lafrenière (RW)

Third line ⊳ Will Cuylle (LW) ⋄ Alex Wennberg (C) ⋄ Kaapo Kakko (RW)

Fourth line ⊳ Blake Wheeler (LW) ⋄ Barclay Goodrow (C) ⋄ Matt Rempe (RW)

Defensemen

Top pair ⊳ Ryan Lindgren (L) ⋄ Adam Fox (R)

Second pair ⊳ K'Andre Miller (L) ⋄ Jacob Trouba (R)

Third pair ⊳ Erik Gustafsson (L) ⋄ Braden Schneider (R)

Goalies

Starter ⊳ Igor Shesterkin

Backup ⊳ Jonathan Quick

Injured: F Jimmy Vesey (upper body)

Healthy scratches: F Jonny Brodzinski, F Filip Chytil, G Louis Domingue, F Adam Edström, D Zac Jones and D Chad Ruhwedel

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Game 4 lineup: How the Rangers keep defying the charts