From Deep: Why fantasy basketball managers should trade for the most efficient shooter in the NBA
The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we'd take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down the three things fantasy managers need to know. Or, Dan will break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.
1/3: Grayson Allen is the most efficient shooter in the NBA
For the opening From Deep column, it's only fitting that I look into an underrated player this season who is enjoying the best year of his career.
Suns G/F Grayson Allen.
He's been on my shortlist for best pickups/draft picks of the year, and while I recognized his efficiency was integral to his success in fantasy this season, I needed to realize the true level of efficiency he was pacing towards.
Somehow, Grayson Allen has turned into the most efficient player in the NBA.
On top of shooting close to 51% from the field and 89% from the line, Allen leads the NBA in 3-point percentage at 48.6% (min of 82 3s made). If his 3-point percentage holds, that would be the 13th-best mark of all time (Luke Kennard currently doesn't qualify).
It's that efficiency that's made him a top-60 player in category formats. A low turnover rate and an average of 1.5 stocks per game is a nice bonus to an already uber-efficient offensive game. It's fair to say that his role within the Phoenix Suns system is perfect; with so much gravity drawn to their big three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, Allen is thriving in catch-and-shoot situations but is also converting on his opportunities in transition and near the rim.
And, most importantly, making the right plays translates well for fantasy purposes.
2/3: But is Allen's shooting sustainable?
Statistically speaking, yes. I'll get to some of the advanced data momentarily, but to suggest a player is the most efficient shooter in the league, surely they're on a path to the 50-40-90 club — a feat only accomplished 15 times by 11 players in NBA history. The list includes mostly Hall-of-Famers — players who are considered among the best shooters of all time — plus Mark Price, José Calderón and Malcolm Brogdon.
No NBA player is currently shooting 50-40-90, but Allen is one of five players shooting at least 50% from the field, 40% from three and 86% from the charity stripe this season.
Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Karl-Anthony Towns all have credible arguments for staking their claim to the "most efficient shooter of 2023-24" throne. However, when assessing their true-shooting percentage and Shot Quality, Allen is HIM.
True-shooting percentage measures shooting efficiency, considering two-point field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws. At the same time, Shot Quality predicts shot outcomes by evaluating the quality of each attempt.
Allen has the highest true-shooting percentage among his peers at 69.2% and is the only non-center within the top five in true-shooting percentage this season. That's impressive, considering the other candidates are almost 5% lower than Allen this season.
And how high is that mark?
His 69.2% mark would outperform all the members of the 50-40-90 club — that's how efficient Allen's been in his first season with Phoenix.
Now, it certainly begs the question of whether Allen could sustain this level of efficiency with the amount of volume Leonard, Durant and Towns have, but that's not his role. He's making the most of his chances when given the opportunity.
In terms of Shot Quality, here's how all four stack up:
As seen in the table above, Allen is more efficient than his peers in terms of points per possession (1.28), good possession rate (63%) and at the rim and 3-point rate (91%). Overall, Allen is in the 86th percentile in the league as it relates to shot-quality points per possession. The only other players with a higher percentile (similar to true-shooting percentage) are centers.
3/3: But is Allen attainable in your fantasy league?
For sure.
Per Yahoo's trade market research tool, Allen's been dealt for players far lower than his value (outside of one insane trade where a fantasy manager traded Allen for Anthony Davis — GTFOH). Remember, most fantasy managers are playing with house money here, so you could include him as a piece of a bigger deal. It also helps that the average fantasy basketball player likely hates Grayson Allen because he's a Dukie and has never played down his reputation as a dirty player. But this is fantasy, and I'd pursue these types of deals with the trade deadline looming.
Not everything has to be a big splash, and considering that Allen is a bonafide starter, getting 33 minutes a night in a prolific offense where one of their stars (Bradley Beal) has missed 28 games and counting due to injury, it's worth a gamble.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2024 MLB season]
He's one of the most rostered players on the top teams in public Yahoo leagues for a reason, and if you play in a league that rewards efficiency, he should be on your list of players to acquire as we get closer to the default Yahoo trade deadline (March 7).
