Florida State football predictions: Projecting Seminoles' record, statistical leaders
While Florida State football doesn't open its season for another week, Week 0 of the college football season is in full swing this weekend with seven games Saturday.
The No. 8 Seminoles open against No. 5 LSU at 7:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 3, at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.
Coming off a 10-win season and Cheez-It Bowl victory, FSU has high expectations under fourth-year coach Mike Norvell.
Redshirt senior quarterback Jordan Travis is expected to be in the Heisman Trophy race, while FSU is expected to contend for the ACC Championship and have an opportunity to be a College Football Playoff contender.
The schedule for the Seminoles breaks down into four different tiers: "must-win," "unfavorable," "coin-flip" and "trap game."
Southern Miss, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Miami and North Alabama are in the “must-win” tier. The Seminoles should be favored to win all of these games, and losing any of them would be extremely disappointing.
The “unfavorable” tier includes just one game, No. 9 Clemson on the road.
The difference between the Seminoles playing in the College Football Playoffs will likely be defined by the four-game “coin flip” tier, which consists of No. 5 LSU, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Florida.
So, what will be FSU’s regular-season record?
The projected wins and losses on the schedule can be seen below, along with some other predictions for the Seminoles this season.
Projecting Florida State's wins, losses
Below is a breakdown of FSU’s projected wins and losses this season.
Sept. 3 (Sunday) vs. No. 5 LSU in Orlando: Win
Sept. 9 vs. Southern Miss: Win
Sept. 16 at Boston College: Win
Sept. 23 at No. 9 Clemson: Loss
Oct. 7 vs. Virginia Tech: Win
Oct. 14 vs. Syracuse: Win
Oct. 21 vs. Duke: Win
Oct. 28 at Wake Forest: Win
Nov. 4 at Pittsburgh: Win
Nov. 11 vs. Miami: Win
Nov. 18 vs. North Alabama: Win
Nov. 25 at Florida: Win
Analysis: The Seminoles show continued growth and improvement in Year 4 under Norvell. They will win 11 games for the first time since 2014 when they finished the regular season with 12 wins.
FSU is likely to be favored in the majority of its games this season. But there are some games that could be viewed as unfavorable or could be coin-flip games.
So here is a closer look at each of the tiers on the Seminoles’ schedule:
• Unfavorable games (1): If any team blows out FSU this season, it’s probably Clemson. The Tigers have beaten the Seminoles in seven straight matchups, including wins by double-figures in five of those. The last time FSU won in Clemson was 2013.
• Coin-flip games (4): Just like last season, LSU likely will be FSU’s most difficult coin-flip game. The Tigers have one of the nation’s best defensive lines, and quarterback Jayden Daniels also poses a significant challenge. Road trips in back-to-back weeks against Wake Forest and Pittsburgh won’t be easy either, especially if the weather turns cooler. Finally, a road game in a tough, rowdy environment like the Swamp in Florida to close out the season will never be an easy game, even if the Gators have a down season, as projected.
• Trap games (1): There could actually be a few of these, but the Duke game is the best setup for a potential trap game. It comes at the end of a three-game homestand for FSU, features a top-tier QB in Riley Leonard and comes before a tough two-game road trip for the Seminoles. It has all the makings of a trap game.
Specific FSU predictions
Who will lead FSU in the rushing this season? Receiving? And what about the defensive categories? Below are some more specific predictions.
Offensive MVP: QB Jordan Travis
Defensive MVP: DE Patrick Payton
Most improved player on offense: WR Winston Wright
Most improved player on defense: S Shyheim Brown
Best freshman: DB Ashlynd Barker
Rushing yards leader: RB Trey Benson
Receiving yards leader: WR Johnny Wilson
Tackles leader: LB Tatum Bethune
Sacks leader: DE Patrick Payton
Analysis: Travis is the best player on FSU and the Seminoles will go as far as he takes them.
But he does have a solid supporting cast this season, with a plethora of weapons to get the ball to. Benson led the team with 990 yards last season and didn’t even start the season as the starter. He’ll 'eclipse that mark this season.
As for the leading receiver, it will be Wilson to come out on top again but don’t be surprised if he finishes under his 897 yards last season, as Wright, Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell, Kyle Morlock, Markeston Douglas and a few other targets are going to be heavily involved as well.
Bethune was second to safety Jammie Robinson with 84 tackles last season. He should be the team leader this season.
Payton narrowly beats out Jared Verse as the projected sacks leader. Barker has drawn consistent praise from Norvell throughout the spring and could be someone who sees significant time as a redshirt freshman.
Big-picture predictions
Below are some final predictions for the ACC and college football this season.
ACC predicted order of finish (regular season)
Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina
Miami
NC State
Duke
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Louisville
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Virginia
ACC champion: Florida State over Clemson
Analysis: The Seminoles drop the regular season matchup against the Tigers but are able to come back and win the ACC Championship on Dec. 2 in Charlotte. It’s their first ACC Championship since 2014.
College Football Playoff qualifiers:
Georgia
Ohio State
Florida State
Alabama
National champion: Georgia
Analysis: Last season was supposed to be a down year for the Bulldogs. Surprisingly, they dominated and posted a perfect record. Until someone dethrones the two-time defending champs, it’s hard to pick against them.
Heisman Trophy Finalists
Jordan Travis, FSU QB
Drake Maye, UNC QB
Caleb Williams, USC QB
Brock Bowers, UGA TE
Winner: Caleb Williams, USC QB
Analysis: It's hard to win back-to-back Heisman Trophies. In fact, Ohio State running back Archie Griffin claimed his second consecutive Heisman Trophy in 1975 and remains the only player to win the award twice. But, Williams is the best player in college football and USC should be a strong team again this year under Lincoln Riley.
GAME INFORMATION
Who: AP No. 8 FSU (0-0) vs. No. 5 LSU (0-0)
When/where: Sunday, Sept. 3, 7:30 p.m.; Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
TV/Radio: ABC/94.9 FM
Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @JackGWilliams on Twitter; @Ehsan_Kassim on Twitter; @JimHenryTALLY on Twitter
Reach Ehsan Kassim at ekassim@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @Ehsan_Kassim. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports) and Instagram (tlhnolesports).
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football: Seminoles will win ACC, reach College Football Playoffs
