Yahoo Sports fantasy analysts Matt Harmon and Andy Behrens explain why managers shouldn't target players who could pay off late in the season. Hear the full conversation on the “Yahoo Fantasy Forecast” podcast - and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

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My first do is, is just winning the month of September, um, just win right away.

Like, don't, don't be the manager who, you know, you stashed a couple of guys who you think, ok, they, they don't have an opportunity right away, but if they get one, I like them and then you stash three other guys who are dealing with injuries, probably not going to start the season.

But man, when they come back, it's gonna be great, you know, so pretty soon we've got four or five players who I can't rely on in week one.

Um, a, a point that pows always makes is that you don't need to run to trouble in fantasy because trouble finds you pretty soon, right?

Um You don't want, you don't want to be that team that gets out of the gate like, you know, one and 30 and two.

and I can, I can give you some numbers on this, um, because we've, we've done some, we've done some work over the years looking at like what your playoff odds are for, you know, you're, you're in a 12 team league.

This holds basically for being in a tente league with six teams in the playoffs to being in a 12 team league.

Um, if you start, oh, and three you have a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs, which is terrible.

Um, you start one and two, you have a 39% chance on the, on the other side if you start three and, oh, that's an 85.3% chance.

Um, and then the, and then the numbers get more extreme.

Like if we just go a couple of weeks out from that, um, if you start, oh, and five, you have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs.

One and four, you basically have a 10% chance.

Um, so you don't want to go into your draft thinking, well, I can, you know, I can take all these long range bets because by, you know, by the time mid October rolls around, um, you know, surely I have found a way to, to have three wins or whatever.

I won't, I, you know, I won't be buried.

Well, you probably will be buried.

Um, and if you're buried, like it just, it gets, it gets late early in fantasy football is what I'm saying.

Right.

Like you start one and four, you, you're probably done probabilistically, you're done.

Um, so, you know, think about, think about those week, one and week two matchups, a great deal more when you're drafting.

Um, think about those week, one and week two matchups a lot more than you think about the month of, like December.

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