Fantasy Hockey: Goalie draft strategy for 2023-24 NHL season
Top-end goalies bust more often than top-end skaters, so it's wise to wait on netminders in your fantasy hockey drafts.
If you’ve ever read something I’ve written before, you probably know me as “that #ZeroG guy.” I’ll wear that moniker proudly, as I’ve spent dozens of hours trying to convince everyone that spending early draft picks on goaltenders is terrible economics within the scope of this fantasy game we all play.
Top-end goalies bust more often than top-end skaters, and no-name goaltenders emerge from the waiver wire every season to become league winners for fantasy purposes.
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Last year alone we saw massive seasons from names like Alexandar Georgiev, Ilya Samsonov, Stuart Skinner and Filip Gustavsson that the fantasy community never saw coming. I’m more than content to chase this year’s Gustavsson on the waiver wire and let my opponents spend up on goalies who may or may not outproduce him.
If you want some more definition of the #ZeroG strategy you can always check out last year’s article on the topic.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at current Yahoo goaltender ADPs and how we can approach the position this year.
Paying through the nose (ADP 14-32): Shesterkin, Sorokin, Vasilevskiy, Oettinger, Georgiev, Hellebuyck and Ullmark
Can we just agree that we’re not going to pay these draft prices for a goaltender in 2023?
Igor Shesterkin’s ADP is the highest of the lot at 14.5, but even Connor Hellebuyck at 31.9 feels pricey for a goalie whose team lost Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois and hasn’t been terrific in a while. You’re paying for a perceived workhorse goaltender with elite rate stats in this tier, but a lot of people paid the same price last year with Jacob Markstrom and that went south quickly.
Linus Ullmark feels like the odd man out in this group from a tiering perspective, as Boston undoubtedly got worse this offseason and Ullmark still figures to split starts quite evenly with the ultra-talented Jeremy Swayman. Either way, I’m not super interested in paying a third-round pick or more for any goaltender and I haven’t seen any of these guys fall to a spot where it even becomes a conversation for me.
Still too expensive (ADP 50-82): Saros, Swayman, Gustavsson, Bobrovsky, Andersen, Vanecek and Samsonov
I’ll start by saying I think Juuse Saros should be up in the tier above, as he’s proven over multiple seasons to be a very good goaltender. But I do understand the hesitancy of drafters given that Nashville as a team is trending towards a youth movement this season and it could get rough. Swayman feels out of place here as a 1B on the aforementioned depleted Bruins squad that will almost certainly see some natural regression from last year’s historic pace.
The others bear some commonalities as presumed starters on good teams, but Sergei Bobrovsky’s inconsistencies, Frederik Andersen’s injury woes and Gustavsson’s half-season sample size all give me pause. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vitek Vanecek ceding the net to backup Akira Schmid early in the season, leaving Ilya Samsonov as the most interesting target in this grouping. Still, Samsonov holds an ADP of 82.2 and I can bank Andrei Svechnikov with that pick. I’m going Svech every time in that scenario.
Starting to have some interest (ADP 90-100): Korpisalo, Levi, Jarry, Fleury, Demko, Skinner and Kuemper
As we get deeper into the ADP, the cost/benefit ratio starts to make more and more sense. I’ve got some love for Tristan Jarry, Thatcher Demko, Skinner and Darcy Kuemper in this tier, as I don’t view them as much different than the names in the tier above. These goaltenders’ ADPs are tightly grouped, meaning goalie runs happen in this range a fair bit as managers jostle to make themselves feel better about their netminding situation heading into the season.
Marc-Andre Fleury is the odd one out in this group for me as the likely 1B or even clear backup to Gustavsson in Minnesota. I think Fleury’s best days are well behind him at this point and I’m not interested in drafting him at this cost.
Joonas Korpisalo and Devon Levi both enter situations that could be fantasy gold if they are able to command volume in the net. However, it would surprise absolutely no one to see either or both of these goaltenders cede a lot of work (or even their starting role) to their respective backups.
Prime #ZeroG territory (ADP 120-160): Kochetkov, Markstrom, Hart, Husso, Hill, Thompson, Schmid and Grubauer
I love taking shots in this tier of goalies because there are plenty of scenarios where one or more of them vastly outperform their draft-day status and turn into a massive win for your fantasy team.
What if Markstrom or Philipp Grubauer reclaim their previous form? What if Ville Husso and Carter Hart’s teams take an unexpected step forward this year? What if Adin Hill’s Stanley Cup performance was just a late breakout? What if Logan Thompson or Schmid are able to unseat the presumed starter on their top-flight teams?
The vast amount of possibilities in this tier is what draws me to it, and I like leaving my drafts with a couple of these names. Even if one or both flame out quickly, I won’t have invested much draft capital into them and that will make it easy to kick them to the curb for the new hot thing on the waiver wire.
Bargain hunting (ADP 165-unranked): Binnington, Copley, Montembeault, Vejmelka, Merzlikins, Blackwood and Campbell
It gets dicey when you get this deep, but there are still worthwhile chances to take if you’re looking for a third goalie and want a dart throw on hitting that early-season breakout goaltender.
Pheonix Copley has the clearest path to fantasy relevance from this tier, but any of the others could pop as probable starters on teams not expected to perform well. It’s a decent bet that one of their teams will surprise a bit (even if it’s only for a portion of the season), and you can extract some goalie value late by hopping on that train.
Jack Campbell doesn’t quite fit the general formula here but the Oilers are still paying him a lot of money. If Skinner falters it would make sense for Edmonton to re-try Campbell as at least a 1A given the considerable financial investment in his success. Whether that pans out or not is anybody’s guess, but he’s virtually free in drafts and you’ll find out pretty quickly if he’s worth hanging onto.
Wrapping Up
I covered this topic and my own personal goalie tiers in a recent A&G podcast episode if you’re interested in an even deeper dive:
Regardless of your level of belief in the #ZeroG strategy, I hope you’ll approach goalie evaluation with some healthy skepticism this season and not put yourself in a massive hole like the Markstrom and Campbell managers in your league did last year. Keep a level head and we’ll navigate the goalie minefield together again this season!
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Nate Groot Nibbelink is the creator of Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey and the originator of the #ZeroG draft strategy. You can find him pontificating about obscure fantasy hockey strategy topics in the Apples & Ginos Discord Server or on Twitter @applesginos.
